1. A Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework (PATFrame) for Unmanned and Autonomous Systems: A Collaboration Between MIT, USC, UT Arlington and Softstar Systems Dr. Ricardo Valerdi Massachusetts Institute of Technology March 10,2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 2 http://lean.mit.edu Outline The Challenge PATFrame team PATFrame objectives & scope PATFrame features Next steps “Anything that gives us new knowledge gives us an opportunity to be more rational” - Herb Simon

3. Sponsors Transition Partners

4. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 4 http://lean.mit.edu PATFrame kickoff meeting Fort Hood, TX - Aug 2009

5. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 5 http://lean.mit.edu The Challenge: Science Fiction to Reality Singer, P. W., Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century (Penguin, 2009) “You will be trying to apply international law written for the Second World War to Star Trek technology.”

6. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 6 http://lean.mit.edu PATFrame Objective To provide a decision support tool encompassing a prescriptive and adaptive framework for UAS SoS Testing PATFrame will be implemented using a software dashboard that will enable improved decision making for the UAS T&E community Focused on addressing BAA topics TTE-6 Prescribed System of Systems Environments and MA-6 Adaptive Architectural Frameworks Three University team (MIT-USC-UTA) draws from experts in test & evaluation, decision theory, systems engineering, software architectures, robotics and modeling http://mit.edu/patframe

7. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 7 http://lean.mit.edu Prescriptive Adaptive Test Strategy/ Test Infrastructure System under test Prescriptive Adaptive Test Framework

8. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 8 http://lean.mit.edu Hours Years Long Term Planning Decisions/ investments Data Collection, analysis & reprioritization Test Planning (in SoS environment) Time Scale for Testing Decisions Days PATFrame Scope Test Development (i.e., design for testability) Months Test Execution (real time) Minutes

9. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 9 http://lean.mit.edu S SoS Complexity of the system under test Autonomy of system under test AI Human SoS none Net-centricity of the environment Difficulty Testing a SoS in SoS environment Testing SoS Testing a system in a SoS environment net-centric focus UAST focus Ultimate Goal DARPA Urban Grand Challenge Use case (UAS in SoS) PATFrame Initial Focus: Testing Autonomous System in SoS environment

10. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 10 http://lean.mit.edu NormativeDescriptivePrescriptive Goal: Capture Actual SoS Test Goal: Construct Theoretical Best “SoS” Test Metric set, “best” levels Metrics, state of the practice levels Goal: Synthetic framework for SoS testing at single and multi-program level “Successful SoS Test” = f(metricA, metricB, etc.) Actual SoS tests include metricA’, metricC, etc. limit (MetricA) Normative (best) Descriptive (SoP) Descriptive (actual) Potential (new test A) test A contribution to state of the practice “success” MetricA MetricBMetricCMetricN … … Prescribed System of Systems Environment

11. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 11 http://lean.mit.edu Integrated Test Management

12. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 12 http://lean.mit.edu Real Options as Prescriptive and Adaptive Framework for SoS Testing Use case: Question: what to test? (i.e. what SoS test scenarios to prescribe?) Inputs: models of autonomous/net-centric system of systems, major uncertainties Outputs: enablers and types of real options for responding to uncertainties as candidate test scenarios (i.e. identification of how SoS can adapt) Joint/ SoS Model: coupled dependency structure matrix Identification of Real Options: Vehicle1 (Army) Vehicle2 (Navy) Vehicle3 (Air Force) Ontology Uncertainties Mission objectives Objective: Maintain Vehicle1  Vehicle2 comm. Uncertainty: proximity of vehicles 1 and 2 1. Real option to adjust comm. range using flexible range comm. systems on vehicles1, 2 2. Real option to use Vehicle3 as relay 1 2 3

13. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 13 http://lean.mit.edu Testing to Reduce SoS Risks vs. the Risks of Performing Tests on an SoS SoS Risks What are unique risks for UAS’s? For UAS’s operating in an SoS environment? How do you use testing to mitigate these risks? What are metrics that you are using to measure the level of risk? Risks of Testing an SoS What are unique programmatic risks that impact your ability to do testing on UAS’s? To do testing on UAS’s operating in an SoS environment? What methods do you use to mitigate these risks? What are the metrics that you are using to measure the level of programmatic risk in testing?

14. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 14 http://lean.mit.edu 14 Example PATFrame Tool Concept Question: When am I Done testing? Technology: Defect estimation model Trade Quality for Delivery Schedule Inputs: Defects discovered Outputs: Defects remaining, cost to quit, cost to continue

15. http://lean.mit.edu © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Valerdi- 15 http://lean.mit.edu 15 When am I done testing?

16. Knowledge Base Analysis Techniques Risk & Uncertainty Analysis (leading indicators) Process Analysis (System Dynamics) Reasoning Engine Plan Analyze and Design Execute Evaluate What realizable options are available? Which test do I run and in what order? Primary Outputs for Test and Evaluation When am I done Testing? Test Requirements Primary Inputs to PATFrame Models of the system under test Available resources and time Mission needs/goals Model of the SoS environment Ontology How should my test strategy change? PATFrame