1. GEO - Weather Ocean Water Proposed Weather SBA and cross-linking work packages

2. TIGGE – what is it? THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble A major component of THORPEX, a 10-year WMO international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy & utility of high-impact weather forecasts up to ~2 weeks ahead. GEO task WE-06-03 – “TIGGE and the Development of a Global Interactive Forecast System for Weather”

3. TIGGE in brief Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and development of probabilistic forecasting methods. Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk – unlikely but catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events. The TIGGE data are available for scientific research from three archive centres: ECMWF (Europe), NCAR (America) and CMA (China) More information at http://tigge.ecmwf.inthttp://tigge.ecmwf.int

4. Scope of Work Packages Two main Weather SBA strands:  TIGGE Research and development  Application of TIGGE and development of Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Include links to Water & Ecosystem SBAs

5. 1. TIGGE research & development 1. Improving access to ensemble forecast data ntegration of TIGGE data base into GCI 2. Additional archive functionality 3. Extension to cover TIGGE-LAM (regional ensembles) 2. Improving access to observation data 1. Synoptic observations 2. Gridded data (initially rainfall) 3. Improving the Ensemble Prediction Systems 1. Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling (- ecosystem SBA) 2. Improved representation of model uncertainties 4. Calibration and combination of ensemble forecasts 1. Statistical bias correction 2. Multi-centres ensembles 5. Common Verification Framework

6. 2. Applications of TIGGE data 1. GIFS product development to support forecasts of severe weather 1. Tropical & extratropical cyclones 2. Heavy precipitation 3. Strong wind 2. Application of TIGGE & GIFS to other SBAs 1. Flood prediction (water SBA) 2. Ocean / coastal applications (ecosystem SBA) 3. Evaluation of products in regional pilot projects 1. in conjunction with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demsonstration Project 2. and other regional pilot projects 4. Shared development of algorithms and software 1. Establish a common toolbox

7. Weather SBA Priorities Priority A*(1.0 Meuro)  Enhancements to TIGGE archive (1.1 and 1.2a)  Evaluation of products in regional projects (2.3) Priority A (1.2 Meuro)  Products development to support SWFDP (2.1)  Research on ensemble calibration & combination (1.4)  Applications to water & ecosystem SBAs (2.2) Priority B (0.4 Meuro)  Improvement of EPS (1.3) Priority C (0.6 Meuro)  Gridded observations (1.2b)  Common verification framework (1.5)  Software toolbox (2.4)