1. What will it take to turn the tide? Bernhard Schwartländer Yogan Pillay Till Baernighausen

2. Doing it better

3. New HIV infections (millions) Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011 Business as usual will lead to stagnation HIV investment US$ (billions) Investment

4. Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011 Business as usual will lead to stagnation HIV investment US$ (billions) New HIV infections (millions) Investment New HIV Infections

5. Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011 Better investments can achieve large gains HIV investment US$ (billions) New HIV infections (millions)

6. Pay now - or pay forever Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011 HIV investment US$ (billions) New HIV infections (millions) 2015 gap: US$ 7 billion

7. Source: UNAIDS Number of new HIV infections 300 000 - 1980199020002010 Russian Federation Brazil Value for money: doing the right things

8. AIDS investment Antiretroviral treatment Value for money: doing things right Source: UNAIDS, WHO 2012 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - 7654321-7654321- AIDS Resources (US$ billion) Millions of people on ART 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AIDS Resources and Treatment scale-up Africa 2002 – 2011:

9. Value for money: price reductions US$/ppy 0 700 TDF +FTC +EFV TDF +FTC +NVP TDF +3TC +EFV ZDV +3TC +EFV 3TC +NVP +ZDV - 60% - 57% - 53% - 41% - 15% Median price of selected first-line regimens in low-income countries Source: Global Price Reporting Mechanism, WHO 2012 2008 2011

10. New World

11. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income 2000 Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

12. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2001200020032002 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

13. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 200120002003200220052004 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

14. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 20012000200320022005200420072006 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

15. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2001200020032002200520042007200620092008 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

16. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 200120002003200220052004200720062009200820112010 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

17. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 20012000200320022005200420072006200920082011201020132012 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

18. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2001200020032002200520042007200620092008201120102013201220152014 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

19. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 200120002003200220052004200720062009200820112010201320122015201420172016 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

20. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 20012000200320022005200420072006200920082011201020132012201520142017201620192018 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

21. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 200120002003200220052004200720062009200820112010201320122015201420172016201920182020 High income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020

22. The vast majority of people living with HIV will be in middle income countries Proportion of people living with HIV by country income category, 2000 - 2020 Source: UNAIDS, IMF 2012

23. Inequality persists despite strong income growth Per capita GDP 20111996 Richest 20% of population Poorest 20% South Africa: GDP per capita 1996-2011 Source: IMF

24. Per capita GDP 20111996 Richest 20% Poorest 20% Share of national income held by: South Africa: GDP per capita and income distribution 1996-2011 Source: IMF, World Bank Inequality persists despite strong income growth

25. Most people living with HIV will live where the wealth is concentrated Source: McKinsey Institute, UNAIDS 2012 2 of every 3 people living with HIV will be living in urban areas by 2030 600 big cities in the world in 2025: 25% of the population 60% of the global wealth

26. New Resources

27. Grow to 15% of Gov Budget: plus US$ 640 billion US$ 2 020 bn Economic growth: plus US$ 670 billion by 2020 US$ 1 380 bn Health spending in 2012: US$ 710 billion US$ 710 bn Wealth for health: economic growth will benefit health budgets in low- and middle-income countries Source: UNAIDS, WHO 2012

28. 1% income tax levy earmarked for AIDS US$ 3.1 billion 75% of an alcohol levy US$ 3.9 billion Contributions from high-revenue enterprises US$ 2.4 billion 2% of public sector budgets earmarked for AIDS US$ 2.4 billion Mobile phone levy US$ 2.0 billion Airline levy by all African countries US$ 1.7 billion Source: Estimates for UNAIDS by Oxford Policy Management, 2012 Options for domestic HIV financing in Africa

29. Extending the annual airline levy to all OECD countries US$ 3 billion Global portion of widely implemented tobacco taxes (WHO) US$ 11 billion Global financial transaction tax US$ 150 billion Issue diaspora bonds (1% of developing-country migrants’ savings) US$ 4 billion Global tax on shipping and aviation fuels US$ 64 billion Sources: World Bank, UN, IMF, AfDB, WHO, International Food Policy Research Institute, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Options for global development financing

30. Those that say it can’t be done should get out of the way of those doing it Chinese Proverb Together we will end AIDS