1. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 1 Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6-9

2. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 2 Acknowledgments NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews CARCAH (John Pavone) Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS Jack Woollen - EMC Russ Treadon - EMC Mark Iredell - EMC Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland Wayman Baker, JCSDA + others who have contributed!

3. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 3 Collaborators Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS Craig Bishop Naval Research Lab Christopher Velden Univ. of Wisc./CIMSS Milija Zupanski Colo. State Univ./CIRA Thomas Hamill NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Lab Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland Robert Atlas NASA/GSFC David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, SMA

4. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 4 Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program Took place 27 Jan – 9 March 2006 Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s). Observations are adaptive – –collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest –in areas that might influence forecast the most. Operational since January 2001 26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter which is reduced from 500 drops last year

5. Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Objective: Improve Forecasts of Significant Winter Weather Events Through Targeted Observations in Data Sparse Northeast Pacific Ocean Approach: 1) Collected Only Prior to Significant Winter Weather Events of Interest 2) Collected in Areas that Influence the Forecast the Most Results: About 70% of Targeted Numerical Weather Predictions Improve Significantly Due to Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program (Operational since January 2001)

6. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 6 ETKF-based targeting strategy The ETKF spotted the target area

7. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 7 Overall results for Temperature Of the cases: 22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data

8. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 8 Overall results for Vector Wind Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data

9. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 9 Overall results for Specific humidity Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data

10. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 10 Forecast Verification for Wind RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time

11. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 11 Individual Case Comparison 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect 19 OVERALL POSITIVE 0 OVERALL NEUTRAL 8 OVERALL NEGATIVE 70% improved 30 % degraded VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION FHOUR W 20060127 1 1 1 1 124W,45N 48 E 20060129 -1 -1 1 -1 75W,40N 72 E 20060201 1 1 1 1 83W,36N 72 W 20060203 -1 1 -1 -1 124W,42N 36 E 20060203 1 1 1 1 84W,35N 48 E 20060204 -1 -1 1 -1 68W,45N 48 AK 20060206 -1 1 1 1 140W,60N 24 W 20060209 -1 -1 -1 -1 122W,45N 60 AK 20060210 1 1 1 1 131W,55N 60 AK 20060212 1 -1 1 1 140W,60N 12 E 20060214 -1 -1 -1 -1 88W,42N 84 E 20060221 -1 1 1 1 87W,42N 48 C 20060221 1 -1 1 1 95W,33N 48 W 20060223 1 1 -1 1 120W,47N 24 W 20060225 -1 -1 1 -1 122W,40N 72 W 20060226 1 -1 -1 -1 122W,40N 36 AK 20060226 1 1 1 1 150W,60N 48 W 20060227 -1 1 1 1 118W,34N 36 H 20060227 -1 1 1 1 158W,22N 84 W 20060301 1 -1 1 1 124W,42N 24 W 20060303 -1 1 1 1 123W,45N 84 W 20060304 1 1 1 1 123W,40N 48 W 20060305 -1 1 1 1 121W,40N 36 W 20060307 1 1 -1 1 122W,46N 48 C 20060307 1 1 1 1 90W,37N 60 E 20060307 -1 -1 1 -1 85W,45N 84 E 20060309 -1 1 1 1 80W,50N 84

12. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 12 Impact of WSR targeted dropsondes (2006) 1 Jan – 28 Feb 2006 00UTC Analysis NOAA-WSRP 191 Profiles Beneficial (-0.01 to -0.1 J kg -1 ) Non-beneficial (0.01 to 0.1 J kg -1 ) Small impact (-0.01 to 0.01 J kg -1 ) Binned Impact Average dropsonde obs impact is beneficial and ~2-3x greater than average radiosonde impact ( From Dr. Rolf Langland, Naval Research Lab.)

13. Composite summary maps 139.6W 59.8N 36hrs (7 cases)92W 38.6N 60hrs (5 cases) 122W 37.5N 49.5hrs (8 cases) 80W 38.6N 63.5hrs (8 cases) Verification Region Shaded is the ETKF derived error reduction in Verification region and contours are sea level pressure

14. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 14 ETKF predicted signal propagation

15. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 15 5143km63.5hrs (East Coast) 4064km60hrs (Central U.S) 2034km49.5hrs (West Coast) 1422km36 hrs (Alaska) Forecast hours vs. Distance The above table listed forecast hours and the distance between the centers of sensitivity and verification regions

16. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 16 WSR overall statistics (2004-2006) Variable # cases improved # cases neutral #cases degraded Surface pressure 21+20+13=540+1+0=114+9+14=37 Temperature24+22+17=631+1+0=210+7+10=27 Vector Wind23+19+21=631+0+0=111+11+6=28 Humidity22+19+13=540+0+0=013+11+14=38 25+22+19 = 66 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 0+1+0 = 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 10+7+8 = 25 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 71.7% improved 27.1% degraded

17. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 17 Future Work Improve ensemble products to give better guidance to HPC and SDMs –using “energy norms” in addition to the conventional products –Better ensemble products Improve targeting method based on ETKF method with increasing resolution and ensemble membership –Explore parallel structure of the codes Improve verification techniques High resolution (T382L64?) WSR 2007 increased more ensemble members from ECMWF, NCEP Moisture data will be assimilated in the verification Tropical flareups and Arctic signals – T-PARC and IPY

18. WSR2007 – More ensemble members -Cleaner signals

19. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 19 Ensemble based guidance

20. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 20 Tropical Flare-ups by IR

21. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 21 Tropical Flare-ups captured by ETKF

22. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 22 NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storm reconnaissance and driftsonde T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

23. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 23 Winter component of T-PARC December 08 to February 09 Improving adaptive targeting methods for 3-5 days  ET  SV (possible collaboration with NRL) Adaptive use of DWL, Driftsondes, Radiosondes, special IPY observations as well as satellite data can enhance high impact weather events in Arctic and CONUS, Enhanced Siberian Observation network, MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

24. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 24 Goal Contribute to the design and utilization of optimal global observing network, including adaptive components Contribute to Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Improved forecasts translate into enhanced guidance for users and real life applications Develop new products (sea ice, freezing spray, storm surge) Probabilistic approach to model uncertainties, downscaling/post-processing better representation in model of high impact weather events

25. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 25 Data issues ( AMMA example ) Daily take-in of the AMMA data for Temperature and wind at one station An example showing Track-Check Problems with African AMDAR Data during AMMA period Courtesy of Dr. Bradley Ballish

26. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 26 Background information - ETKF

27. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 27 Continued