1. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 1 Hydrodynamic Modeling Summary: Still working on it Hydrodynamic Modeling Dave Schwab

2. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 2 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 2 Hydrodynamic Modeling Team Develops, tests, integrates, and implements numerical models of lake circulation, water levels, waves, and lake thermal structure to understand and predict the effects of the physical environment on the ecosystem Ice Hydrology Ecology Meteorology/ Climatology Hydrodynamics Integrated Ecological Modeling Framework

3. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 3 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 3 Key Scientific Questions How can we better characterize the exchange of momentum and heat between the atmosphere and the lake because these are the primary forces that determine lake circulation?

4. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 4 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 4 What are the critical factors that limit our ability to accurately predict physical phenomena in the lakes? Measured (black) and predicted (red) currents in Lake St. Clair

5. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 5 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 5 What are the appropriate linkages between physics and biology for particular ecological processes? 7-day forecast for location of Microcystis bloom in Lake Erie Sept. 13, 2010

6. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 6 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 6 How do we effectively provide information from hydrodynamic models to our collaborators, users, and constituents?

7. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 7 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 7 Hydrodynamics Modeling Team Scales of Application Days Months Seasons Years Weeks GlobalRegionalLocal Larval PathwaysTrajectory-Based Forecasts Beach Advisories Hypoxia Formation Habitat Migration Disease Transmission Model-Based Ecosystem Forecasts Invasive Spread Species Abundance Resource Recovery Exposure Risk Ecosystem Change Climate Impacts Spill Response Spatial Extent of Forecast Frequency of Forecast Scenario-Based Forecasts Hydrodynamic and Ice Models Hydrodynamic and Ice Models

8. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 8 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 8 Research Leading to GLCFS 76-79 Dynamical storm surge forecasts for Lakes Erie and Huron 84 Great Lakes wave forecast model (GDWM) 80-89 Objective analysis of overlake winds 88-90 CoastWatch SST for the Great Lakes 89 3D hydrodynamic circulation model of Lake Erie 90-91 Demonstration of operational GLCFS at OSU

9. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 9 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 9 GLCFS Transition to Operations National Digital Forecast Database GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System CO-OPS 1991 / 2003

10. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 10 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 10 Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model unstructured grid Nowcasts / forecasts of hourly water levels and currents Link model with output from GLCFS Updated every 6 hrs Huron-Erie Connecting Waterways Forecasting System Lake St. Clair

11. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 11 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 11 Grid Nesting and Unstructured Grids High Resolution Hydrodynamic Models

12. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 12 Experimental Validation of Model Simulations: Grand River Plume June 2, 2007 June 20, 2007 June 6, 2007 June 10, 2007

13. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 13 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 13 Hydrodynamic Modeling - Visualization

14. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 14 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 16-18, 2010 14 Hydrodynamic Modeling - Customers NOAA NWS Great Lakes Offices - Marine forecasts NOAA NWS - North Central River Forecast Center - Water Levels NOAA NOS CO-OPS - Coastal forecasts NOAA NOS/OHHII - Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie National Ice Center - Water temperature and ice USCG SAR - Search and rescue planning NOAA HAZMAT - Spill response U.S. Geological Survey - Spill Response Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District - Water temperature Niagara River Control Center - Water Levels UW-Milwaukee/SUNY Buffalo - Nested Grid Modeling Recreational users: sport fishing, boating, swimming In addition, dozens of academic, private sector, and other public agencies make requests for various archived products from GLCFS

15. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 15 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 15 Questions?