2. 12/4/2015 INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS intelligence + information society M. Gams matjaz.gams@ijs.si

3. Three worlds with different properties Intelligent systems - integration of the three Collapse of time, space.

4. Moore’s Law 1. Electronic world

5. Saturation – When?

6. Moravec 2.Computers vs beings

7. Human Brain Progress

8. Rast moči računalnikov / ljudi Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računal- niki

9. Exponential vs. linear growth Memory

10. Turing test

11. Human-level intelligence Unknown barrier

12. 3.Informacijska družba Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računalniki Ljudje + Računalniki = Informacijska družba Rast človeških sposobnosti

13. Teorija singularnosti Moč procesiranja Čas Ljudje Računalnik i Ljudje + Računalniki = Informacijska družba

14. Generation no.Generation nameMain object I.AgrarianFood II.IndustrialProduction III.Post-industrialServices IV.Information s.Information Human Generations

15. Generation no.Generation nameStatus I.Machine-levelSlave II.ProgrammingSlave III.ToolsSlave IV. Information society Assistant / AGENTS Computer Generations

16. Generation name DurationComm. Speed Agrarian3000-5000 years3-5 km/h human Industrial300-50030-50 horse, car Post-industrial30-50300-500 airplane Information30? 3000-5000 network IS Impact on Humans (Lewis)

17. Human Saturation Info clock >> biological clock  Terminal velocity  Conflict between biological and information clock  Humans can’t cope with information overflow  Solution: WE NEED INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS

18. Definition: information society More than 50% of GDP related to information/knowledge. More than 50% of employees active in the information economy (immaterial labour). Economy based on transition from material goods to information/knowledge (primary and secondary sector, e.g. OECD 1981, 1986). IS started 1970-1980? Constantly growing! Slovenian growth

19. Possibilities s

20. BASIC I.S. LAWS m Moore’s law (exponential growth of chip capabilities) m Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) or n*logn (size of network is very important; internet) m Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic, of transmission capabilities) m Andreesen Lewis Fleming... net capitalism = frictionless economy, information economy, Internet economy, new economy (global, liberal, without rectrictions, regulations)

21. Laws mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes Moore's Law Metcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes – social networks - Internet Sidgemore's Law - traffic doubles every three months Andreesen's Law - cost of bandwidth is dropping Disk capacity (+electronic basic properties) also grows exponential Lewis/Flemig's Law - friction-free economy, booming, self-regulating (Greenspan) Gilder’s Law (The Law of Telecoms) - Total telecommunications system capacity (b/s) triples every three years Put on the Internet all your information and activities FB:mail The cyber-world doubles fortune (real or fictive?? – current crises) Side effect of information society is information overload Information society demands intensive information knowledge for successful leadership Information society belongs to all of us The Internet is the most democratic and free media in the world The Internet and information society are our hope for the future

22. INTERNET WIKIPEDIA ISKALNIKI / Wolfram Alpha Internet 1,2,3 Trendi danes: socialna omrežja, uporabniško generirana vsebina, visoka prepustnost omrežij, grafika, multimediji, virtualna ekonomija, Youtube, Facebook, Googlearth, 2nd life

23. Web 2.0" refers to a perceived second generation of web development and design, that facilitates communication, secure information sharing, interoperability, and collaboration on the World Wide Web. Web 2.0 concepts have led to the development and evolution of web-based communities, hosted services, and applications such as social- networking sites, video-sharing sites, wikis, blogs, and folksonomies. Wikipedia

24. Za Obamovo zmago odločilen internet; vir Finance 1.6.2009 David Plouffe, vodja digitalne kampanje Baracka Obame, Gradec, maj 2009. Nove tehnologije, zlasti internet, so eden glavnih razlogov, da je Obama postal 44. predsednik ZDA.Od začetka kampanje, ko je bila verjetnost za zmago skoraj enaka nič, so veliko tvegali; vedeli so, da nimajo drugega kot odličnega kandidata in jasno vizijo, ob tem pa pravilno ocenili, da je prav tehnologija pot za dosego ciljev. ***Internet kot glavni kanal kampanje so uporabili za zbiranje denarja (pol milijarde dolarjev), promoviranje (3 milijone prijateljev na Facebooku, na desetine profilov na omrežjih), organiziranje in predvsem samoorganiziranje ljudi na terenu ter nenehno pošiljanje sporočil neposredno do ljudi *** ter tako pometli z močnimi tekmeci, ki so kljub veliki prednosti na začetku kampanje igrali "po starih pravilih igre".

25. GOOGLE, APPLE, end of PC? YAHOO, ALTAVISTA … GOOGLE / MS? KOLIKO POVEZAV, DVA STUDENTA PORTAL, NE SAMO ISKALNIK - SEARCHABLE E-MAIL - SHORT-MESSAGING FOR MOBILE DEVICES - SEARCH ONLINE BOOKS - INDEX OF WEB IMAGES - SATELLITE IMAGES - CHAT GROUPS - CATALOG SERVICES - FROOGLE – BEST PRICE COMPARISONS

26. SKRITI INTERNET OBJAVE – CiteSeer; COBISS KNJIGE … - Amazon.com, DZS NAKUPOVANJE – E-bay, Bolha, Ceneje ZDRAVJE – nasveti, primeri, zdravila PREVAJANJE – med velikimi jeziki, slov. ENCIKLOPEDIJE – splosne, spec., WIKI INFORMACIJE – CNN, TV, filmi, posnetki, glasba, dnevniki (privatni), revije, blogi …

27. Discussion  Information society - technological, human, social  Intelligent systems - SW generation with some degree of intelligence  Intelligence (human, artificial, technical) is essential  True intelligent revolution decades away  Incredible possibilities ahead of us (first technical intelligent systems, later true AI) that may prevent saturation of human civilisation (overcrowded, shortage of oil and recources …) and jump ahead

28. THE FUTURE WILL BE INTELLIGENT