1. 1 Population Out-migration and Upstate Economic Performance Prepared for: New York State Network for Economic Research March 30, 2005 conference by Richard Deitz Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch richard.deitz@ny.frb.org The Regional Economy of Upstate New York Newsletter is available online at: www.newyorkfed.org/research/regional_economy/upstatenews.html

2. 2 Overview Upstate’s performance surrounding the latest business cycle a longer and deeper recession than the nation The region’s persistent lagging growth is primarily structural can be viewed through the lens of long-term population out-migration

3. 3 Average Job Loss in Postwar Recessions Local area Peak through Trough Source: U.S. Department of Labor

4. 4 Job Loss in the Last Recession Local area Peak through Local Trough Source: U.S. Department of Labor -7.3%

5. 5 Employment Has Not Yet Recovered Local Area Peak to Present Source: U.S. Department of Labor - 7.3% - 5.4% - 2.8% - 2.1% -2.0 % 0.6% 0%

6. 6 Extended Job Losses & Sluggish Gains Recession and Recovery Timing Source: U.S. Department of Labor - 7.3 - 5.5 - 4.4 - 3.2 - 3.1 - 1.4 - 2.1 0.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.1 1/20011/20021/20031/20041/2005

7. 7 Industry Gainers and Losers Aggregate of Upstate Metro Areas, Peak to present Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Leisure and Hospitality Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Manufacturing Source: U.S. Department of Labor

8. 8 Long-term Population Out-migration

9. 9 Population Trends Source: US Census Bureau Index: 1990 = 100 US Upstate

10. 10 The Population is Migrating population growth, 1970-2000 Percent Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau

11. 11 Population Change: 1970-2003 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Syracuse Albany Glens Falls US Rochester Binghamton Jamestown Elmira Utica Buffalo

12. 12 People Follow Jobs & Jobs Follow People Jobs have migrated south and west manufacturing has shifted to low cost and non- unionized areas, services have followed People have moved to high amenity areas warmer weather to the south and west cultural attractions in large metro areas Once begun, people follow jobs and jobs follow people likely to perpetuate and build momentum

13. 13 Population Change & Out-Migration

14. 14 Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers) Natural Increase Net Migration Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Estimating Out-migration

15. 15 Population Growth = (Births – Deaths) + (In-movers – Out-movers) Net Migration Net Domestic Migration* Net International Migration* +1.8%+8.3% -6.5% -9.2% +2.7% * estimated; assumes upstate NY emigration is negligible Estimating Out-migration 1980-2002

16. 16 Population Change: 1980-2002 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Syracuse Albany Glens Falls Rochester Binghamton Jamestown Elmira Utica Buffalo U.S. Population Growth: 27%

17. 17 Net Migration: 1980-2002 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Net migration is population growth minus (births-deaths) Syracuse Albany Glens Falls Rochester Binghamton Jamestown Elmira Utica Buffalo Net migration Population growth

18. 18 Out-Migration is More Severe Among the Young population growth, 1980-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

19. 19 … Leading to A Disparate Age Distribution Percent of Population, Age 20-34 Percent of Population, Age 65+ U.S Upstate Source: U.S. Census Bureau

20. 20 All Upstate Metros Older than Typical (Percent of Population 65 and over) Source: US Bureau of the Census

21. 21 Conclusions The last recession was somewhat longer and deeper for upstate NY Long-term out-migration is contributing to the region’s slow economic growth Out-migration is also aging the region’s population faster than average Out-migration trends and impacts needs to be considered as part of economic policy decisions