1. Reducing Deforestation as a Mitigation Option Session Introduction Brian Murray Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WV March 8, 2007

2. CO 2 Emissions Sources: Global From: Union of Concerned Scientists. Recognizing Forest’s Role in Climate Change. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/recognizing-forests-role-in-climate-change.htm l Deforestation accounts for ~ 20% of global CO2 emissions

3. Share of emissions from deforestation in key countries Argentina19% Brazil69% China-1% India-3% Indonesia86% Korea0% Malaysia82% Mexico16% South Africa0% Source: Center for Clean Air Policy, 2000. From Keila Aires, Duke U Master’s Project draft, Feb 2007

4. Source: Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2005.htmhttp://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2005.htm Annual Forest Cover Loss in Brazil 20% loss of Amazonian forest cover since 1970 Is rate declining?

5. US Historic Deforestation Source: Smith, W.B, P.D. Miles, J.S. Vissage, and S.A. Pugh. 2004. Forest Resources of the United States, 2002. General Technical Report NC-241. St. Paul, MN: USDA, Forest Service, North Central Research Station. Forest area was one-half the land base in 1630, one-third now - 300 million acres converted

6. Avoided Deforestation as a Policy Issue Kyoto Protocol (KP) did not include avoided deforestation as a CDM component Kyoto Protocol (KP) did not include avoided deforestation as a CDM component –Concerns about permanence, leakage, additionality –Sovereignty issues –Result: Foregone incentive for protecting tropical forests Recent proposals to include avoided deforestation in post-2012 KP Recent proposals to include avoided deforestation in post-2012 KP –COP 9 (2003) petition to include deforestation in the CDM –COP 11 (2005) Papua New Guinea Proposal: market-based compensation at the national level for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) –Brazil proposal: “Positive incentives” for developing countries that voluntary reduce emissions from deforestation not tied to any UNFCCC commitment not tied to any UNFCCC commitment –Recipient country does not take on a commitment –“Buyers” do not reduce commitments –Not tied to a GHG credit market

7. Avoided Deforestation as a Policy Issue II Basic premise under either approach Establishment of a reference national carbon emissions rate (i.e., baseline) Establishment of a reference national carbon emissions rate (i.e., baseline) –Historical reference period? –BAU projection? Direct measurement and monitoring of actual rates after policy in place Direct measurement and monitoring of actual rates after policy in place Compensation for going below the reference rate Compensation for going below the reference rate

8. Implementation Issues Policy Scope Policy Scope –Deforestation –Degradation Developing reference case estimate for the country Developing reference case estimate for the country –Data and methods available Land use/land cover change Land use/land cover change Carbon Carbon –Responsibility for the estimates Measurement, monitoring and verification Measurement, monitoring and verification Within country measures to accomplish target Within country measures to accomplish target

9. Today’s Session Sandra Brown: Data and Methods for Estimating Reference Case; Measurement and Monitoring Sandra Brown: Data and Methods for Estimating Reference Case; Measurement and Monitoring Brent Sohngen: Modeling Economic Opportunities Globally Brent Sohngen: Modeling Economic Opportunities Globally Ralph Alig: Lessons learned from deforestation modeling in US Ralph Alig: Lessons learned from deforestation modeling in US