1. Convergent or Divergent Superintelligence

2. We need a “smart systems theory” What is the Evolution and Ecology of Intelligence? –Under what circumstances do we see complex organisations of intelligence of different kinds, and under what circumstances do we see monocultures? –Economy and sociology as the ecology of intelligence?

3. Hard or soft takeoff? Runaway self improvement leading to single “winners” - a “spike” More gradual self improvement leading to a broad front - a “swell” The scenario assumed will determine policy to a large extent Do we have any evidence for either scenario?

4. General vs. specific intelligence How powerful and easy to design? Likely a strong determinant of hard vs. soft takeoff

5. Reasons to think general intelligence is hard No free lunch theorems The Bias-Variance dilemma –Specific bias vs. slow learning rate No strong evolutionary trend towards GI –either very expensive or hard to achieve

6. Is intelligence increase easy or hard? Difficulty of improving intelligence might remain constant, increase or decrease compared to current level Different mental architectures have different affordances and might be able to develop not just at different rates in different domains, but might be able/unable to solve certain problems.

7. One kind of intelligence or many Evolution shows that the problem of survival can be solved in a large number of radically different ways Intelligence models –Top-down AI with recursive search –Subsumption architectures of linked behaviours –Calculate P and reformulate problems in terms of Turing questions –Collective intelligence

8. Intelligence amplification IA does not need to understand the human brain except for extreme enhancement. It can be an user interface issue Gradual acclimatisation Effective intelligence might be more relevant than “real” intelligence

9. A scenario Economics drives development of specific intelligent systems General intelligence as a result of specific intelligence Intelligence fairly hard but useful

10. Plurality of intelligent systems Soft take-off Intelligence amplification –Exoselves When GI appears, it will be integrated into the existing systems rather than become something independent