1. Japan and Brazil Economic Outlook Brazilian Development Prospects
XVII Joint Meeting of the Japan-Brazil Committee
September 9-10, 2014 1

2. The world: times of catching up and increasing relevance of developing nations
Annual Growth Rates, %
Avg Growth
Advanced Economies
2,4
1,0
1,6
Emerging Markets
6,5
5,2
5,3
Source: IMF, WEO

3. Brazil, macroeconomic fundamentals
Gross Debt
Consolidated Public Sector Net Debt (as % of GDP)
International Reserves (US$ billion)
Arquivo para atualização deste gráfico pode ser encontrados em:
“T:\DAE\APRESENTAÇÕES\kit gringo\201306”
Arquivo: “Gráficos_dados fiscais.xlsx”

4. Brasil: Macroeconomic fundamentals (2)
CPI Inflation (IPCA index, % YoY)
Current account results, % GDP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2013; IBGE

5. Brazil: Economic and Social Progress
Job creation
Income classes, millions of people
Source: Ministry of Finance
*CAGED:
**12 months up to feb 14
Formal employment and unemployment rates
Brazil vs USA and Europe, unemployment rate, desazonalised, %
Source: BCB

6. Public investments in education (% of GDP)
Economic and social progress (2)
Poverty and inequality trends
GDP per capita, R$ thousand prices
Public investments in education (% of GDP)

7. Attractive and expanding internal market
O caminho para os gráficos é: “T:\DAE\APRESENTAÇÕES\kit gringo\201306”
Arquivo: “Infra.xls”
Sources: National Agency for Civil Aviation (ANAC), National Agency for Aquatic Transportation (ANTAQ), Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires (ABCR) and Brasilian Association of Automative Vehicle Manufactures (ANFAVEA).

8. Brazil: potential of agriculture, oil and exports
IMF EXPORT GROWTH PROJECTIONS

9. Brazil: investments forecast 2014-2017
Source: BNDES

10. Brazil: investments forecast for industry, 2014-2017
Atualizações: Solicitar novos números do Perspectivas do Investimento ao DEPEQ/APE (Gerente André Sant’Anna).
Source: BNDES 10

11. Brazil: investments forecast for infrastructure, 2014-2017
Atualizações: Solicitar novos números do Perspectivas do Investimento ao DEPEQ/APE (Gerente André Sant’Anna).
Source: BNDES 11

12. Ongoing program of infrastructure-related concessions

13. BNDES BNDES – highlights and comparison with peers
2012 (in US$ billion)
2/3 of long term loans in Brazil
100% State owned
Stable institutional funding
Instruments
Direct Operations
Indirect Operations
MSME (financing and guarantee)
Exports (Pre and Post shipment)
Project finance
Grants
Investment bank
BNDES
KFW
CDB
JFC
Assets
367.8
657.3
1,191.6
318.4
Outstanding Loans
254.0
526.4
1,016.9
272.4
Net Profit
3.0
3.1
9.9
-3.6
ROA (%)
0.90
0.47
0.92
-1.13
NPL (%)
0.06
0.21
0.30
2.98
Source: Banks' balance sheets.
Equity Portfolio
Estimated market value (US $ b.)
45.4
Nº firms with direct support
203
Nº Investment Funds 44
Source: BNDES 13 13

14. BNDES’ contribution to Brazilian development (1)
*12 months, up to February/2014
to 2013
Atualização: Checar com Gilberto Borça.
T:\DAE\APRESENTAÇÕES\kit gringo\201306\BNDES_Aprovações&Desembolsos.xlsx

15. BNDES’ contribution to Brazilian development (2)41 53
104
172
231
261
275 8 11 12 23 25 32
-5,0
5,0
15,0
25,0
35,0
45,0
55,0
65,0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Support for MSME: disbursements + number of firms
Number of MSME, 1,000
Disbursements, US$ billion)

16. Main takeaways
Economic and social inclusion will generate opportunities to rise the consumption of goods and services and expand the housing industry.
Expanding ongoing infrastructures (telecom, energy and logistics) will induce systemic productivity, improve standards of living and increase demand for suppliers of goods and services.
Oil and gas will be a relevant source of foreign revenue and vast opportunities for the supply industry.
Due to its consolidated competitiveness, the current export base (mineral and agricultural commodities) will continue to offer investment opportunities.
Industry and services in Brazil still require higher investment in capabilities and innovation to induce international competitiveness.
The real economy provides vast opportunities for private financial industry to enter into long-term financing.

17. Japan and Brazil Economic Outlook Brazilian Development Prospects
XVII Joint Meeting of the Japan-Brazil Committee
September 9-10, 2014 17