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Presentation on theme: "Do not put content on the brand signature area Basic template Subtitle Location – Date www.ing.com Name of the speaker Job title."— Presentation transcript:

1 Do not put content on the brand signature area Basic template Subtitle Location – Date www.ing.com Name of the speaker Job title

2 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING2 Executive Champion: Local Champion: Process Owner(s): Master Black Belt: Black Belt: Green Belt: Financial Analyst: Other Team Members: Related Projects: Project Name ICE Country and Functional Line Advisors Network Finance Human Resources Legal / Compliance Customer Service Defined Contribution Employee Benefits Information Technology Marketing Mutual Funds Retail Annuity Retail Life Reinsurance / Institutional Markets Tollgate Stage MM /DD/ YYYY Project ID:

3 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING3 DMAIC Process Steps DefineMeasureAnalyzeImproveControl Project CCR’s Validated VOC Completed Team Charter Preliminary CBA Estimate Validated Process Map Identify Quick Wins Identify Issues & Barriers Project Schedule List of Potential Root Causes List of Statistically Significant Xs Demonstrate Relationship of X’s to Y Preliminary CBA Process Evaluation Develop to be process Demonstrate Improvements via Pilot Graphical Analysis of Pilot Finance Approved CBA MSA Results on Xs New Process Performance Statistical Confirmation of Improvements Process Management System Plan (SPC) Process Owner Handoff Final CBA Completed QFD/CCR Tree Operational Definitions Specification Limits Stated Targets Defect Definitions Measurement Plan Measurement System Analysis Graphical Analysis Rolled Through Put Yield Baseline Current Process Performance ( Z st) Key Deliverables: Surveys Focus Groups Interviews SIPOC Functional Deployment Map FAST, Stakeholder Analysis QFD / CCR Tree Measurement Plan Continuous Gage R&R Attribute Gage R&R Sample Size Calculator Pareto Charts Graphical Summary Line Charts Benchmarking Process Capability Dot Plots Box Plots Run Charts Normality Testing Fishbone Diagram Hypothesis Testing Regression Analysis DOE NVA and VA Analysis Pugh Matrix New Functional Deployment Map FMEA on new process Pilot Continuous Gage R&R Attribute Gage R&R Control Charts Hypothesis Testing Control Plan Process Capability 1) 2) 3) Tools 1.Identify Critical Customer Requirements 2.Develop Team Charter 3.Develop Process Maps 4.Select Critical Customer Requirement 5.Data Collection Plan Validate MSA on (Y’s) 6.Calculate Baseline Process Capability 7.Identify Potential Root Causes 8.Validate Root Causes 9.Evaluate Root Cause Relationships ( y = f (x)) 10.Develop Improvements 11.Confirm Results and Validate Improvements 12.Validate MSA on X’s 13.Calculate New Process Capability 14. Implement Process Control

4 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING4 Project CCR’s Validated VOC Completed Team Charter Preliminary CBA Estimate Validated Process Map Identify Quick Wins Identify Issues & Barriers Project Schedule List of Potential Root Causes List of Statistically Significant Xs Demonstrate Relationship of X’s to Y Preliminary CBA Process Evaluation Develop to be process Demonstrate Improvements via Pilot Graphical Analysis of Pilot Finance Approved CBA MSA Results on Xs New Process Performance Statistical Confirmation of Improvements Process Management System Plan (SPC) Process Owner Handoff Final CBA Completed QFD/CCR Tree Operational Definitions Specification Limits Stated Targets Defect Definitions Measurement Plan Measurement System Analysis Graphical Analysis Rolled Through Put Yield Baseline Current Process Performance ( Z st) Key Deliverables: Surveys Focus Groups Interviews SIPOC Functional Deployment Map FAST, Stakeholder Analysis QFD / CCR Tree Measurement Plan Continuous Gage R&R Attribute Gage R&R Sample Size Calculator Pareto Charts Graphical Summary Line Charts Benchmarking Process Capability Dot Plots Box Plots Run Charts Normality Testing Fishbone Diagram Hypothesis Testing Regression Analysis DOE NVA and VA Analysis Pugh Matrix New Functional Deployment Map FMEA on new process Pilot Continuous Gage R&R Attribute Gage R&R Control Charts Hypothesis Testing Control Plan Process Capability 1) 2) 3) DefineMeasureAnalyzeImproveControl Tools 1.Identify Critical Customer Requirements 2.Develop Team Charter 3.Develop Process Maps 4.Select Critical Customer Requirement 5.Data Collection Plan Validate MSA on (Y’s) 6.Calculate Baseline Process Capability 7.Identify Potential Root Causes 8.Validate Root Causes 9.Evaluate Root Cause Relationships ( y = f (x)) 10.Develop Improvements 11.Confirm Results and Validate Improvements 12.Validate MSA on X’s 13.Calculate New Process Capability 14. Implement Process Control DMAIC Process Steps

5 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING5 Identify Potential Root Causes Analyze - Step 7 Potential Root causes of your Defect: Use a Pareto to Stratify and Identify root causes Single Case Boring Tool Pareto Charts

6 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING6 Identify Potential Root Causes What are the Potential Causes of the Defect? (Enter in the form of a question) Effect (Y)Potential Causes (Xs) FormsStaff / People Methods / ProceduresSystems / Equipment Measurement Environment Teams working on the same process at different sites Multiple systems Poor data entry Faulty data reporting Application form not correct Staff not trained Analyze - Step 7

7 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING7 Analyze - Step 8 StabilityShapeSpread (Variance) Centering Use Control or Run Charts, Box Plots and Dot plots to detect significant runs, trends or patterns in the data Use Histograms, Normality Plots and the Graphical Summary from Minitab to determine normality P<0.05 data is NOT normal Use the Homogeneity of variance test to determine if the variances of the two populations are equal. P<0.05 variances NOT Equal Use ANOVA or Mood’s median testing to determine if the centers of the two populations are equal. P<0.05 Centering NOT Equal Hypothesis Testing Validate Root Causes Statistical Testing Overview

8 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING8 Statistical Testing - Stability Analyze - Step 8 Run ChartBox Plot I-MR ChartDOT Plot

9 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING9 Statistical Testing – Road Map START: Is Y Continuous or Discrete? Is X Continuous or Discrete? Variation or Centering? Chi Square Binomial Regression Scatter Plot Discrete (Y) Discrete (X) Continuous (X) Continuous (Y) Variation Centering Variance Test Bartlett Variance Test F-Test Is X Continuous or Discrete? Normal or non-Normal? Normal or non-Normal? Variance Test Levine NormalNon-Normal Comparing Relative to a Target? Comparing Only Two Samples? NormalNon-Normal ANOVA One Sample T-Test Two Sample T-Test No Logistic Regression Non- Parametri c Tests Mann- Whitney Mood’s Median Yes Continuous (X) Discrete (X)

10 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING10 Regression Process flow Important X Calculate relative regression Rsqr high Not an important X Normally distributed P>0,05 N O regression possible Regression possible Y N N Check residuals with Minitab with 4 in 1 table option (check 3 tables) Megaphone shape N O regression possible trends, outliers, non-random patterns Y Y N N Y

11 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING11 Statistical Analysis: Regression What: Regression When: In order to define a mathematical relationship (model) between two continuous variables Continuous Y, continuous X Where: Stat > Regression > Fitted Line Plot Assumptions: Assumptions are made particulary about error or “residuals” (explanation later). Why: Relationship between the two variables Predictive formula (you could estimate future cycle times based on the approval times) y=b+mx Percent of the variation in the response variable that can be attributed to the predictor variable

12 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING12 Exercise: Regression

13 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING13 Strong R 2 Review results and check for outliers The regression equation is Y3 = 3.02 + 0.505 X3 Predictor Coef StDev T P Constant 3.015 1.080 2.79 0.021 X3 0.5051 0.1178 4.29 0.002 S = 1.173 R-Sq = 67.1% R-Sq(adj) = 63.5% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 1 25.283 25.283 18.37 0.002 Residual Error 9 12.387 1.376 Total 10 37.669 Unusual Observations Obs X3 Y3 Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid 10 13.0 12.500 9.581 0.621 2.919 2.93R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual Low p Value Row 10 Outlier Row 10 Outlier

14 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING14 Residual Plot 1: The residuals should be normally distributed for a good regression A probability plot of the previous data (Y3, X3) shows one outlier is different from the rest of the data A probability plot of the previous data (Y3, X3) shows one outlier is different from the rest of the data

15 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING15 Residuals Plot 2: Residuals Against the Fitted Values Why? To look for a non-random pattern, such as a megaphone (funnel) shape. The megaphone shape indicates that variation increases as the response increases. Conclusions can be affected and may be incorrect. Ignore the pattern indicated by the symmetry of the dots around 0. It is not a special cause. Two replicates will always appear perfectly matched.

16 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING16 Residuals Plot 3: Residuals Against Time Order Why? To ensure that the experimental variability has only common causes associated with it. The relationship should not change over time. To look for lurking variables (trends, outliers, or non-random patterns) that might influence our conclusions. They may have been hidden in other plots.

17 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING17 Statistical Analysis: Multiple Regression What: Multiple Regression When: Upon determine there is a relationship between a response variable and multiple predictor variables Continuous Y, continuous X’s Where: Stat > Regression > Regression Why: Same predictive formula as with Regression Quantify relationship between multiple predictors and single response variable

18 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING18 Start off by creating a matrix plot which shows the relationship between each X and the Y as well as between each pair of Xs: Mail Sort Time, Approval Time and Waiting for Info seem to influence y. Multiple Regression – Example

19 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING19 Statistical Analysis: Logistic Regression What: Logistic Regression Since Y in not continuous, the probability of an event (discrete Y) is modeled using the “logit” function from which this regression tool gets its name When: In order to test for statistically significant differences between groups Discrete Y, continuous X Where: Stat > Regression > Binary Logistic Regression Why: To investigate the relationship between a categorical response variable and one or more predictors

20 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING20 Hypothesis Testing: 2-sample t-Test What: t-Test When to use: To determine if there is a significant difference between the averages of two groups Continuous Y, discrete X Where: Stat > Basic Statistics > 2-sample t Assumptions: The data within each group are normally distributed. Why: To determine if the two groups of a discrete x-variable are significantly different, indicating that this x has an influence on the y.

21 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING21 Anova Process flow Test normality within groups P>0,05 Transform data Test for equal variability P>0,05 ANOVA test P<0,05 Different 2 sample t-Test No important X Important X Look at Bartlett, since data is normally distributed Y Y Y N N N

22 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING22 Statistical Analysis: ANOVA (One-way) What: ANOVA (One-way) When: Testing to determine if 3 or more groups are statistically different Continuous Y, discrete X Where: Stat > ANOVA > One-way Assumptions: The data within each group are normally distributed The groups have equal variances Why: To determine if there is a significant (statistical) difference between 3 or more groups Validate Root Causes

23 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING23 Exercise: ANOVA (One-way) Analysis of Variance for Cust. Sa Source DF SS MS F P Location 2 475.967 237.984 265.16 0.000 Error 2017 1810.276 0.898 Total 2019 2286.243 Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level N Mean StDev ----------+---------+---------+------ New York 1021 4.0627 0.9096 (*) Paris 503 4.4632 0.6360 (*-) Sydney 496 3.1331 1.2417 (-*) ----------+---------+---------+------ Pooled StDev = 0.9474 3.50 4.00 4.50 Validate Root Causes

24 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING24 Statistical Analysis: Contingency Tables What: Contingency Tables When: In order to test for statistically significant differences between two or more groups Discrete Y, discrete X Where: Stat > Tables > Cross Tabulation Why: Tests for significance between two or more discrete groups Validate Root Causes

25 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING25 Hypothesis Testing: Chi-Square Test  What: Chi-Square Test  When: –Testing to determine if two or more groups are statistically different in their averages –Discrete Y, discrete X  Where: –Stat > Tables > Chi-Square Test  Assumptions: –You have enough data (counts) so that the expected counts for each cell are >5  Why: –To verify if the two or more groups of a discrete x-variable are significantly different, indicating that this x has an influence on the discrete y.

26 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING26 Chi-Square in Minitab Open the exercise file „Product Satisfaction“ Go to „Stat“ and „Tables“ The sample data worksheet contains both the raw and the table data. In general, if you only have raw data, then use the „Cross Tabulation and Chi- Square“ function in Minitab. This will calculate the counts you need to create a table of your raw data manually. You can also have Minitab do the Chi-Square test right away by clicking on the button „Chi-Square“. Indicate that you also want to see the expected counts. When your data is in table form, you can also use the function „Chi-Square Test (Table in Worksheet)“ to get the same results. In this case you simply select all the columns that make up the table (here: four columns).

27 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING27 How the Chi-Square Test Works The Chi-square Test calculates “expected counts” (e.g. 857.63) for each cell, based on the relationships of the totals. The test then compares these expected count with the actual counts of each cell (e.g. 850) and determines if there is a significant difference between the expected and actual. If there is a significant difference somewhere, then the p-value will be low. Here, y = satisfaction, x = customer category Men Over 40 Men Under 40 Women Over 40 Women Under 40 Sum Satisfied850 857.63 571 573.57 152 145.67 94 90.13 1667 Not Satisfied92 84.37 59 56.43 8 14.33 5 8.87 164 Sum942630160991831 Expected count: 1667 / 1831 * 942

28 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING28 Chi-Square Results in Minitab Chi-Square Test: Expected counts are printed below observed counts Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts Men Men Women Women Over 40 Under 40 Over 40 Under 40 Total 1 850 571 152 94 1667 857.63 573.57 145.67 90.13 0.068 0.012 0.275 0.166 2 92 59 8 5 164 84.37 56.43 14.33 8.87 0.689 0.117 2.797 1.687 Total 942 630 160 99 1831 Chi-Sq = 5.810, DF = 3, P-Value = 0.121

29 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING29 Commonly Used Statistical Tests There is at least one nonparametric equivalent for each parametric general type of test. These tests fall into the following categories: Validate Root Causes

30 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING30 Parametric and Nonparametric Methods The need should be evident for statistical procedures that allow us to process data of ‘low quality’, from small samples, on variables about which nothing is know (concerning the distribution). Nonparametric methods do not rely on the estimation of parameters (such as the mean or standard deviation) describing the distribution of the variable of interest in the population. Therefore, these methods are also sometimes (and more appropriately) called parameter-free or distribution-free methods. Since nonparametric tests require fewer assumptions and can be used with a broader range of data types, why not use them all the time? Parametric tests are often preferred because: They are robust They have greater power efficiency (greater power relative to sample size) They provide unique information (interactions in factorial design) Parametric and nonparametric tests often address two different types of questions. Validate Root Causes

31 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING31 Advantages of nonparametric tests Nonparametric test make less stringent demands of the data particularly for smaller sample sizes. Nonparametric procedures can sometimes be used to get a quick answer with little calculation. For example the sign and median test. Nonparametric methods provide an air of objectivity when there is no reliable underlying scale for the original data A historical appeal of rank tests is that it was easy to construct tables of exact critical values, provided there were no ties in the data. Validate Root Causes

32 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING32 Disadvantages of nonparametric tests The major disadvantage is the procedures are nonparametric, there are no parameters (   ) to describe and it becomes more difficult to make quantitative statements about the actual difference between populations. The second disadvantage is that nonparametric procedures throw away information! The sign test, for example, uses only the signs of the observations. Ranks preserve information about the order of the data but discard the actual values. Because information is discarded, nonparametric procedures can never be as powerful as their parametric counterparts. Validate Root Causes

33 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING33 Validate Root Causes Non-Parametric Summary If possible, collect data which meet the tests of normality You have been introduced to several methods to test non-normal data, but these are not frequently used If you have non-normal data, consult your Master Black Belt for advice

34 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING34 Statistical Testing - Shape Analyze - Step 8 The Graphical Summary displays a Histogram that appears to be NOT normal However when the data is displayed and analyzed by site we can see that it is, in fact, Normal From Minitab got to the Stat menu, select Basic Statistics, Graphical Summary to generate the charts on this page. A p-value of 0.5 or higher means that your data is normal.

35 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING35 Statistical Testing – Hypothesis Testing Analyze - Step 8 Now that you have charted the data and determined that there are 2 independent process Use Hypothesis Testing to determine if there is a Statistical Difference between them. To do this we must first state our NULL HYPOTHESIS or (Ho) and our ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS (Ha) Ho = There IS NOT a statistical difference in cycle time for the Minot and Denver processing sites. Ha = There IS a statistical difference in cycle time for the Minot and Denver processing sites.

36 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING36 Analyze - Step 8 InputData TypeNormalityTest UsedResult of Test Variance (p-value) Variance EqualResult of Test Centering (p-value) Centering Equal Cycle time (Y Response) ContinuousN/A Minot (X Factor) DiscreteNormalUse the decision tree on next pageEnter p-value from testN N Denver (X Factor) DiscreteNormalUse the decision tree on next pageEnter p-value from testN N  Chi Square X (Factor) Y (Response) Continuous Discrete Continuous Discrete  Scatter plot  Simple Regression  Multiple Regression  T-tests  ANOVA  Probability Plot  Test for Variance  Mood’s Median  Logistic Regression  Chi Square The Matrix above can serve as a quick reference to which tool (s) you can use depending on what type of data you have. Statistical Testing – Hypothesis Testing

37 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING37 Analyze - Step 8 Statistical Testing – Spread (Variance) Based on the resultant p-value – 0.00, the variances are NOT equal Test for Equal Variances: Cycle time vs. location 95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations C6 N Lower StDev Upper Denver 100 0.96453 1.11872 1.32878 Minot 100 1.73295 2.00998 2.38739 F-Test (normal distribution) Test statistic = 0.31, p-value = 0.000 Levene's Test (any continuous distribution) Test statistic = 24.68, p-value = 0.000

38 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING38 Analyze - Step 8 Statistical Testing – Spread (Centering) Based on the resultant p-value – 0.00, the centers are NOT equal. There for we must reject the null Ho and accept the alternative Ha. Ha = There IS a statistical difference in the variances (spread) of cycle time for the Minot and Denver processing sites. Two-Sample T-Test and CI: Stacked, Location Two-sample T for Stacked Location N Mean StDev SE Mean Denver 100 3.91 1.12 0.11 Minot 100 4.81 2.01 0.20 Difference = mu (Denver) - mu (Minot) Estimate for difference: -0.898457 95% CI for difference: (-1.352886, -0.444028) T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -3.91 P-Value = 0.000 DF = 154

39 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING39 Evaluate Root Cause Relationships Analyze - Step 9 Fitted Line Chart with Regression Potential Root Causes of your Defect: Use Scatter Plots, Fitted Line Plots and Regression Plots to determine the strength of the relationship between the sources of variation

40 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING40 Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Analyze - Step 9 Double Click on the CBA Icon to Launch Copy and Paste Summary Report

41 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING41 Summarize findings, present recommendations and document next steps. Next Steps

42 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING42 Baseline Calculate the current Sigma level Establish Baseline Statistical Analysis Chart the Stability of your data Run Chart Control Charts Chart the Shape of your data Graphical Summary Histograms Pareto Charts Establish the Null and Alternative Hypothesis’s Document your Y and your X’s Determine your data type Use the Statistical Road map to select the appropriate tests for your data type DISCRETE Data Chi Squared Test CONTINIOUS Data Analyze the variance of your data Analyze the centering of your data State the results of the testing and accept or reject the Null Hypothesis Populate the Fishbone to identity sources of variation Preliminary Cost Benefit Analysis CBA Template Completed and signed off Project Schedule Updated Documented NEXT Steps for Improve Project Meeting Completed Review Analyze material and Prep for tollgate Analyze Tollgate Checklist

43 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING43 Improve - Step 10 Which alternative improvement works best for you? Why? Pugh Matrix Develop Improvements

44 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING44 Improve - Step 10 Design of Experiment - DOE DOE

45 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING45 Improve - Step 10 1 34 2 HighLow Easy Hard Implementation Which Option works best for you? Why? Impact Impact / Effort Matrix Action Workout 4-Blocker: 1 – high impact, easy to do 2 – low impact, easy to do 3 – high impact, not so easy to do 4 – low impact, not so easy to do Develop Improvements

46 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING46 PFD – Improved Process Flow Diagram Improve - Step 10 Insert your Improved Process map here Indicate steps that were changed or deleted. Identify re-work loops that were removed or improved If possible show improved cycle times or decreased volumes

47 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING47 Failure Modes and Effect Analysis Improve - Step 10 FMEA See Instructions in Appendix

48 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING48 Pilot Solution Improve - Step 11 Objectives 1. (e.g., determine user acceptance, test with customer...) 2.(e.g., evaluate cycle time reduction, increase in accuracy...) Method: (1-2 sentence description of sample size, extent of testing) (1-2 sentence description of communication plan) (1-2 sentence description of training plan) Pilot Solution Communicate Solution Train Users / Processors

49 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING49 Pilot Results Improve - Step 10

50 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING50 Summarize findings, present recommendations and document next steps. Next Steps

51 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING51 Evaluate Multiple Solutions Pugh Matrix Effort Impact Matrix DOE Process Flow Diagram Completed and Validated Complete and Validate FMEA Identify and Evaluate Risks Complete and Validate FMEA Prepare Necessary Training Material Pilot Solution Project Schedule Updated Documented NEXT Steps for Control Project Meeting Completed Review Improve material and Prep for tollgate Improve Tollgate Checklist

52 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING52 Validate Measurement System (X’s) Control - Step 12 HowWhatPurpose of CollectionData TypeMeasure Type Measures Operational Definitions and Procedures Clarify Data Collection Goals How ManyWhoWhenWhereWhat Operational Procedures for Collection and Recording Method of Validating Measurement SystemSegmentation Factors

53 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING53 Continuous Data Gage R&R Validate Measurement System Control – Step 12

54 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING54 Measurement System Analysis (MSA) Control - Step 12 Discrete Data Gage R&R Double Click on the Excel Icon to Launch the Discrete Data Analysis Tool Copy and Paste Summary Report

55 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING55 Establish New Process Capability Baseline Process Capability – Discrete Data (DPMO Calculation) Control - Step 13 Baseline Process Capability – Continuous Data (Process Report from Minitab) Units = Defects = Opportunities = DPMO = Baseline Sigma =

56 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING56 Assess New Process Capability Baseline (Before Project) New (After Project) Sigma DPMO 1.42 3 <> Before and After Performance Assessment Control - Step 13 Validate Statistical Improvement H 0 =There is no difference between the baseline and the new Process Capability H A = There is a difference between the baseline and the new Process Capability If P >.05 there is no difference between the Processes If P <.05 there is a difference between the Processes Chi-Square Test: defects, units, opps defects units opps Total 1 1245 10000 2 11247 866.59 10378.33 2.08 165.238 13.792 0.003 2 425 10000 2 10427 803.41 9621.67 1.92 178.232 14.876 0.003 Total 1670 20000 4 21674 Chi-Sq = 372.144, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.000 2 cells with expected counts less than 5. Validate Statistical Improvement

57 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING57 Final Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Control - Step 14 Copy and Paste the Updated CBA File from Analyze Step 9

58 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING58 Control Chart Selection Implement Process Control – Chose a Control Chart Control - Step 14

59 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING59 Control Chart Key Drivers (X’s)MeasurementContinuous or Discrete Continuous or Discrete? Continuous or Discrete? Continuous or Discrete? Implement Process Control Ongoing Measurement Plan Control - Step 14 Insert the appropriate control chart as indicated on the previous slide

60 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING60 Stakeholders Map – Pre Improvement Control - Step 14 * When Populating the Stakeholder, consider the FAST Method F= FYI – Information Only A= Approver S= SME Subject Matter Expert T= Team Member Influence On Project High Medium Low MediumHig h Impacted By Project Stakeholder Position Strongly Supportive Neutral Opponent 1S 2S 3F 4T 5A 6F 7A7A 8S9S 10A 11T Stakeholders:Distribution, New Business, Underwriting, Legal, IT, Actuary, Web Team, Customer Svc/Ops, Marketing, Finance, Compliance Where are your Stakeholders NOW ?

61 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING61 Turnover to the Business Has the business agreed to accept this process? Who owns the new process? Who runs the new process? Has this person(s) been properly trained? Who monitors the new process and metrics? What would happen if you were not available? Where else can the new process owner get support? Documentation What kind of documentation is available? Where is the documentation located? Who has access to the information? Who will be responsible for updating the information? How is documentation / file change control managed? Implement Process Control Control - Step 14

62 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING62 Control Tollgate Checklist Measurement System Analysis Gage R&R or DDA Calculate New Process Capability Calculate the current Sigma Level Evaluate Project Results Compare Baseline and New Sigma Levels Statically Validate Improvement Establish the Null and Alternative Hypothesis’s Final Cost Benefit Analysis CBA Template Completed and signed off Document ongoing measures Chart Control Data Use appropriate Control Chart (s) Complete Project Documentation Turn Process Over to the Business Project Meeting Completed Review Control material and Prep for tollgate Hold Final Project Tollgate and Celebrate Success !!!!

63 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING63 APPENDIX Key Deliverables FMEA Scoring Guidelines Sample Team / Tollgate Meeting Agenda

64 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING64 Key Deliverables APPENDIX

65 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING65 Severity Rating Scale: The Severity of a failure should it occur Occurrence Rating Scale: The Likelihood or Frequency of Failure Detection Rating Scale: The likelihood of a failure being Detected before its effect is realized BAD 10 Injure a customer or employeeMore than once per day (>30%)Defect Caused by failure is not detectable 9 Be Illegal / Cause Controllership IssuesOnce every 3-4 days (<= 30%) Occasional units are checked for defects 8 Render the product or service unfit for useOnce per week (<=5%) Units are systematically sampled and inspected 7 Cause extreme customer dissatisfactionOnce per month (<=1%) All units are manually inspected 6 Result in partial malfunctionOnce every 3 months (<=.03%)Units are manually inspected with mistake-proofing modifications 5 Cause a loss of performance which is likely to result in a complaint Once every 6 months (<= 1 per 10,000) Process is monitored (SPC) and manually inspected 4 Cause a minor performance lossOnce per year (<= 6 per 100,00) SPC is used with an immediate reaction to out of control conditions 3 Cause a minor nuisance but be overcome with no performance loss Once every 1-3 years (<= 3 per million SPC as above with 100% inspection surrounding out of control conditions 2 Be unnoticed and have only minor effect on performance Once every 3-6 years (<=3 per 10 million) All units are automatically inspected GOOD 1 Be unnoticed and not affect the performanceOnce every 6-100 years (<=2 per billion) Defect is obvious and can be kept from affecting the customer FMEA Scoring Guidelines APPENDIX

66 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline www.ing-presentations.intranet ING66 Sample Team Meeting / Tollgate Agenda APPENDIX You can double click on the form to launch the word document. Modify the content as necessary for your project


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