1. European Jobs Monitor Shifts in the employment structure in Europe during the Great Recession

2. Method first used by J. Stiglitz, and refined by E.O. Wright - USA Concept/objectives: –To describe structural change in the labour market using the job as a unit of observation. A job is an occupation in a sector –To add a qualitative dimension to net employment change data (ELFS) using wage (as a proxy of job quality) –To provide data on the extent to which member states are making good on the policy commitment to create ‘more and better jobs’ (Lisbon, EU2020, EES) First cross-national application in Europe (to 23 MSs for 1995-2006) in More and better jobs?: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe, 1995-2006 (www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0850.htm )www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0850.htm Subsequent work by Goos/Manning uses a variant of the method – “The polarisation of employment in Europe” (2010) The ‘jobs’ approach: overview

3. … leading to a quintile assignment RankSector Occupation 1Financial servicesCorporate managers 2Legal /accounting Other professionals 3EducationTeaching professionals 4Human health activitiesLife science and health profs....... …… 1105AgricultureSkilled agric / fishery workers 1106Services to buildingsSales/services elementary occups 1107EducationSales/services elementary occups 1108Food manufactureCraft workers Low 20% paid Mid-low paid Mid paid Mid-high paid High 20% paid Quintiles For each country, a job ranking...

4. The Great Recession: 5m jobs lost in the EU

5. Recent employment expansions in EU and US (different periods)

6. Before and after...

7. MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008q2-10q2

11. PolarisationUpgrading Downgrading Variety of national patterns (2008-10)

12. Sector: loss concentrated in manufacturing / construction

13. Services: where the growth is * (L)KIS=(Less) Knowledge Intensive services

14. Gender: heavy male job losses, heavily polarised

15. Very different impacts by age group

16. Foreign-born workers: Growth in low-paid employment

17. Temporary work: The fall and rise

19. Labour market impacts of recession varied very much between member states Resilience of growth in top-quintile jobs Disappearing middle –Polarisation – distributional inequality, ‘Blocs’ of good and bad jobs, –What do those who lose their jobs in medium-paying jobs do? –Occupational mobility Youth unemployment –‘New skills for new jobs’? Destandardisation –Increasing part-time, temporary/fixed-term work (absent ES) Next 5 years? –The public sector Conclusions and policy pointers

20. Thank you for your attention

21. Extra slides

22. EU-27 employment shifts by occupation/sector, 2008q2-2010q2

23. Services, esp public sector: where the growth was

24. Irish labour mkt during the crisis

25. Temporary work: The fall and rise

26. Part-time work: Increasing across the board

27. From upgrading with some polarisation (1998-2007) to polarisation with some upgrading (2008-2010) more “hollowing out” than growth in the tails In summary

28. Education

29. Comparing job-wage and job-skill rankings (% per annum employment change by quintile, EU27)

30. Manufacturing: a German exception

31. AGE

32. Job-wage rankings Source: ELFS 2008 annual data Mean net wage per hour per employee in job Data not available for all countries, yet. Our solution: –To enquire with MSs for missing countries positive response from Denmark –Generate a common EU ranking (based on 13 MS inc UK, IT, FR and PL) and apply to countries where we have no data. Second-best but practical. High level of correlation of job-wage ranks between countries. Eurostat wage data - coverage and quality - will improve.

33. Irish labour mkt during the crisis

34. Breaks in data 2007 – transition to NACE (sector) rev 2.0 3 yrs of ELFS data with the new sector classification. Wage data in the ELFS available for 14 countries (ELFS annual 2008). First application of ‘jobs approach’ using NACE rev 2 sector data with up-to-date data. We start today with analysis of change in structure of jobs between 2008Q2 & 2010Q2. But first how to rank jobs & present results in quintiles European Jobs Monitor 2011

35. Gender, age and emp status Gender: “a very male recession” – not only quantitatively Age: - old gained in all quintiles esp. at the top - young lose in all quintiles esp. towards the bottom Part-time - net gains equally shared between sexes - male in lower quintiles, women in higher Temporary work - Steep losses 08-09, rapid growth 09-10 - shift to lower quintiles