1. The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1 Suzanne Porter Oregon Department Of Human Services Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 503.945.9778 FAX: 503.378.2897 sue.porter@state.or.us

2. Newly Poor in the Great Recession  First detailed look at the work characteristics of SNAP households – working age and not disabled  Compared two SNAP intake cohorts: CY 2005 and FY 2009  Expansionary vs. recessionary period  Household structure, demographics, and work history of head of householder http://oregonstate.edu/cla/mpp/sites/default/files/pdf/newpoor_0.pdf January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 2

3. Comparing the 2009 with 2005 cohort:  The total number of households increased by 58%  The number of new households in 2009 was nearly as large as the total number of households in 2005 January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 3

4. Multi-adult households nearly doubled Higher rates of growth among older households January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 4

5. Full-time worker households nearly doubled Households experiencing a drop in earned income more than doubled Average percentage drop in earnings ≈ 1/3 January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 5 Work history analyzed for the year prior to SNAP receipt Drop in earned income measured in quarter immediately preceding start of SNAP

6. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 6

7. Men disproportionately affected  Number of adult males in SNAP cohort increased by 73%  46% of 2005 cohort to 49% of 2009 cohort  Increase partially due to disruption in construction and manufacturing sectors  Men comprised 69% of SNAP recipients with manufacturing job history, 93% of those with construction job history January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 7

8. Poor in Great Recession January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 8 Two years later, how has the recession changed the composition of the SNAP caseload? Compared two snapshot populations: June 2006 and June 2011

9. Caseload change – working age adults January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 9

10. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 10 Demographic measures

11. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 11 Household composition

12. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 12 Work history

13. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 13 Single-person households

14. January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 14 Single-person households, 18 to 24

15. Young adults January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 15 18 to 24 year olds were part of a baby- boomlet that occurred between 1987 and 1993 This cohort is coming of age during a period of high unemployment Potential long-term consequences

16. Poor in Great Recession January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 16 Early in the recession, the story was job loss That story has changed to joblessness Males & young adults have been particularly affected