1. 1 Self-Test 6.1 : 1. Two boys take turns throwing darts at a target. Al throws first and hits with probability ¼. Bob throws second and hits with probability 1/3. What is the probability that Al hits the target before Bob does? 2. Three girls take turns shooting a basketball and have probabilities 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 of scoring. Who has the best chance of getting the first basket?

2. 2 Self_Test 6.2 3. A young lady wants to make her date wait occasionally but does not want him to get too angry. Therefore, if she made him wait the previous time, she is only late with probability 0.2, but if she was not late the previous time, she is late with probability 0.6. Let p k be the probability that she is late on the kth date. And suppose that p 1 = 1. Compute p 1,p 2, and p k->infinity. A. (this is not required, just for you practice.). Suppose that a rainy day is followed by another rainy day with probability ½, but a sunny day is followed by a sunny day with probability 2/3. What is the long-run fraction of sunny days in this simple-minded model of the weather?

3. 3 Self-Test 6.3 4. 5% of men and 0.25% of women are color-blind. What is a probability a color-blind person is a man? 5. Two hunters shoot a deer, which is hit by exactly one bullet. If the first hunter hits his target with probability 0.3 and the second- with probability 0.6, what is the probability the second hunter killed the deer. 6. Three factories manufacture 20%, 30% and 50% of the computer chips a company sells. If the fractions of defective chips are 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, what fraction of the defective chips come from the third factory?