1. CO-RIN 1 “NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN” EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ---------------------- Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI Head of Industry’s International Relations FINCANTIERI SpA Gijon, 20 March 2010

2. CO-RIN 2 SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY - SAILING IN ROUGH WATERS

3. CO-RIN 3 DEMAND TREND – LONG PERIOD 16 17 12 18 12 11 10 9 14 15 12 8 11 23 19 23 22 18 30 27 22 45 46 38 56 86 44 16 8081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 09 NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt) 26315618Billion US$) “Great Depression”

4. CO-RIN 4 Total Orders by building area Total Orders by segment 2007 – 1 st quarter 2010 (*) = since 2007 “EU + N” includes also Bulgaria and Romania S.Korea EU 27 + N Mil. CGT 8.6 29.1 32,4 85.9 10.1 5.7 R.of W Totale Japan China 2007 1.2 6.5 3.4 15.9 4.3 0.5 (% CGT) Mil.CGT 74% 73% 24% 26% 1% 2% 43.7 85.9 20072008 Cruise ships High-Tech ships Standard ships 2008 Jan – Mar 2010 5.0 14.0 15.0 43.7 7,6 2.1 R.of.W. 2009 78% 22% Jan – Mar 2010 15.9 3,2 7% 5% 3% 4% 12% 17% 27% 5% 38% 34% 21% 40% 34% 32% 41% 34% 9% 12% 8% 17% 200720082009Jan - Mar 2010 78% 22% 0.5 1.3 3.2 0.2 0.1 Compared to 2007 - 49% (*) 1.1 DEMAND TREND – SHORT PERIOD - 64% Compared to 2008 2009

5. CO-RIN 5 IMPACT ON THE EMPLOYMENT + 1st tier suppliers + full supply chain 8,950 44,000 30,000 Direct 130.000 > 580.000 ~ 400.000 + 1st tier suppliers + full supply chain Europe Direct 26.000> 80.000~ 110.000 75.000 ~ 200.000~ 290.000 ALREADY AFFECTED IN EUROPE TOTAL AT RISK

6. CO-RIN 6 DEMAND & SUPPLY FORECAST NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt) 16 17 12 18 12 11 10 9 14 15 12 8 11 23 19 23 22 18 30 27 22 45 46 38 56 86 44 16 8081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708 09 Supply 2012 > 50 Mil. Cgt Expected Demand 2012-2020 25 – 30 Mil.Cgt GAP ~ 50 %

7. CO-RIN 7 1.No demand upturn can be expected in the short – medium period 2.No direct aid from national state to shipbuilding industry is allowed by European rules (only limited contribution to research and innovation) POSSIBLE WAYS OUT …but Two initiatives are supported by the European Union and some National Authorities to stimulate demand :  promotion of “short sea shipping” (only schemes / ships targeting emissions reductions)  “greening” the EU fleet. Goal :  to enhance the safety and environmental characteristics of the ferry fleet (to begin with), largely over-aged,  To support the fleet renewal without creating oversupply.

8. CO-RIN 8 ROLE OF PRELIMINARY DESIGN

9. CO-RIN 9 Hydro dynamics Mechanical & thermo dynamics Heating, cooling, ventilation Hull service systems Electrical systems Electronic Control Systems ………. INTEGRATION OF DESIGN TOOLS – SIMULATION TOOLS – ITC ROLE OF DESIGN TOOLS

10. CO-RIN 10 Main current research directions Effort toward the improvement of simulation codes (CFD) to deliver a complete toolset for marine hydrodynamics (e.g. Integrated Project VIRTUE “Virtual Tank Utility in Europe”, 2005-2008(6 th FP), BESST “Breakthrough in European Ship and Shipbuilding Technologies” and other ongoing projects) Large, coordinated effort to collect experimental accurate dataset for model scale validation of numerical simulations (Blind workshops: SIMMAN 2008, Gothenburg 2005,2010 ). Validated CFD tools can then be used for full scale predictionGothenburg 2005,2010 Increasing effort to develop Simulation Based Design frameworks for the numerical optimization of the design. The ultimate goal is to help shipyards in designing better ships. SBD is where R&D meets industrial innovation MARITIME RESEARCH IN HYDRODYNAMICS : THE BALANCE BETWEEN SIMULATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS

11. CO-RIN 11 Variable Fidelity & Metamodels MPI Parallel processing Optimization Algorithms Simulation Based Design environment Accurate CFD tools EFD validation Automatic mesh SIMULATION BASED ENVIRONMENT

12. CO-RIN 12

13. CO-RIN 13 It covers the whole spectrum of flow studies, from sophisticated flow physics to applied industrial computations Computational power: CFD is able to saturate immediately any High Performance Computing Center Its development is fully controlled by the availability of large computational resources CFD results should be regularly confronted to experimental data to avoid any devious evolution towards Colorful Fluid Dynamics! WHAT “EXACTLY” IS CFD?

14. CO-RIN 14 Compared to the aeronautic industry ships are built in very short series  studies devoted to hydrodynamics do not represent a large portion of the budget : CFD should be fast, flexible and cheap Experimental tests are performed at model scale  scale effects may be large and mostly unknown! CFD should provide a cheap, unique answer to study scale effects Ship hulls are usually very complex. Propulsors are located in regions characterised by complex flow physics and the influence of appendages should be accounted for! CFD should be able to provide reliable simulations of full scale flows around fully appended hulls CFD AND HYDRODYNAMICS : OPEN ISSUES