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An overview of analytical findings and recent developments Roger Nelson, Director Peter Bancel, Principal Analyst Global Consciousness Project

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Presentation on theme: "An overview of analytical findings and recent developments Roger Nelson, Director Peter Bancel, Principal Analyst Global Consciousness Project"— Presentation transcript:

1 An overview of analytical findings and recent developments Roger Nelson, Director Peter Bancel, Principal Analyst Global Consciousness Project http://noosphere.princeton.edu What's Happening In the Global Consciousness Project?

2 Structure Where there should be none There is “some there there” Odds less than 1 in 1,000,000 Two independent measures Correlated response to events Distance structure Time structure Psychological structure Data anomalies vs selection A sampling of explorations

3 http://noosphere.princeton.edu/egghosts/ A World Spanning Network of REGs (EGGs)‏ Google Map of nodes

4 Internet transfer of data to Princeton It looks random: Combined data For a whole day, about 60 eggs

5 Average cumulative deviation shown by the black dotted line We can see better what’s happening by Plotting cumulative deviations (  2 - df)‏

6 Formal tests: First identify major events Then ask if there is a trend of accumulating deviations Figures show sequential history of a sample of Data collected in a pre-defined time period The test statistic is the terminal value

7 September 11 2001 Destruction of the World Trade Towers A 50-hour trend followed the attacks Two days

8 Synchronized Meditation Half a million people aroud the world

9 New Years Eve 1999-2008 (10 years  37 time zones) Average Variance Decrease

10 Concatenate almost 10 years of formal data 250 rigorously defined global events Odds: Million to 1 against chance Small effect: The average Z-score is about 0.35

11 Independent Statistics First order, S 1, is called Netvar Second order, S 2, is called Covar S2:S2: S1:S1:

12 Control data, 1000 Resamplings of Database S1+S2 S1 S2 Event data contain Highly significant correlations

13 Independent Measures Simulate Netvar with average effect Calculate Covar for same “events” Blue = random Netvar Red = random Covar

14 Time structure: Sliding the “event” away From the actual event time produces Drop-off for both Netvar and Covar Blue = Network Variance Red = Global Covariance Correlated measures Event +/- 15 days Dispersion = Netvar+Covar

15 Time structure Correlation of two independent measures Z-scores maximal for events ~ 1-2 hours What might explain this?

16 Distance Structure Independent measures, distance scale Both are driven by inter-reg correlation Blue: pair-product data in 1000 km bins Red: simulation in 7 event pseudo-sets Green line: regression fit to real data Blue line: regression fit simulation data Yellow: weighting for regression

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19 Psychology: Netvar and Covar Response Differs for Categories of events Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Gold = Relative DF

20 Netvar and Covar Response Correlation in “Super” Categories Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Green = Correlation Gold = Relative DF

21 ANOVA Interaction: Statistic x Category Blue = Netvar Red = Covar Event DataSimulation Data

22 2-Way ANOVA: Netvar and Covar Statistic by Category Interaction

23 Daily Rhythm? Only exact 24 hour “day” shows Evidence of correlation with consciousness Explorations

24 Long term trend suggests Searching for external correlates Social variable: Presidential Approval Raw Approval Rating 2 Parameter model fit F = a (value) + b (slope)‏ Red = polls Blue = data Red = polls Blue = data It is important to remember this is a correlation. There is no assertion of causation. Explorations

25 All Earthquakes, Richter 6 or More Cumulative Deviation of Covariance Controls (no humans affected)‏ Ocean Quakes +/- 30 hours Quakes on Land +/- 30 hours Same trend, independent subsets Begin early ~ 8 hours before quake Consciousness implied Premonition suggested

26 GCP/EGG Project The people who make it go International collaboration of 100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Peter Bancel, Paris, professional analysis, collaboration William Treurniet, Canada, egganalysis programming John Walker, Switzerland, programming, general support Richard & Connie Adams, USA, general support Paul Bethke, USA, windows programming, network Dick Bierman, Netherlands, design and realtime display Dean Radin, USA, design and independent analysis Brad Anderson, USA, widget programming Taylor Jackson, Canada, realtime display maintenance Greg & Lefty Nelson, USA, program architecture, general support Fernando Rodríguez, Spain, egghosts google map Leane Roffey, USA, music, outreach, general support Jaroen Ruuward, Netherlands, realtime programming Dick Shoup, USA, independent analysis Nishith Singh, India, realtime programming Mahadeva Srinivasan, India, general support … And all the EGG hosts around the world


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