1. Fundraising and the Media April 23, 2013

2. Opportunities to discuss course content Tuesday 11-2 Weds 10-2

3. Learning Objectives Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Readings Chapter 7: Political Communication and the Mass Media (Flanigan)

5. OUTSIDE SPENDING IN 2012

6. Top Outside Spenders: 2012

7. Outside Spending in 2012

8. Advantages of Super Pacs They Can Spend the Unlimited Amounts Level the Playing Field Say things that a candidate would never say

9. Disadvantages of Super Pacs Message problems Cost-effectiveness

10. Impact of the Super-pacs GOP outspends 2-1, but Hard Money is still better Tend to give to ideologically pure and long- shot candidates Will have to re-evaluate themselves

11. THE ELECTION The Republicans

12. Romney Perry Gingrich Santorum

13. Obama’s Super Pac Strategy Previously If You cant beat them, join them Creates a super pac

14. Obama in the Summer Preemptive Attack Battleground States Cost-Effective

15. Overall Spending

16. THE MEDIA

17. The Role of the Media Is an informal institution Is a linkage institution It is profit driven

18. The Media and Opinion Formation We are exposed to it constantly, but does it matter? Direct Effects model says it matters a lot

19. Indirect Effects Model Two-Step flow Model The Role of Elites

20. THE MINIMAL EFFECTS MODEL Does the media really matter

21. The Minimal Effects Model The Fall Campaign is not that important Most people have made up their mind

22. Spurious/Minimal effects model We do not seek out political information We have selective/exposure perception We rarely make major changes

23. Who is influenced the most Those with the least political attention Those without stable party identification Elections can swing if it is close

24. WHERE WE GET OUR POLITICAL INFORMATION

26. Where we get Political Information

27. The Type of Media Matters Television is the most important The internet is the fastest, but has the most bias

28. We Would Rather Watch Mistakes on TV Bad SushiSushi People Falling People A great collectioncollection

29. Newspapers and Magazines Newspapers – Provide more information and Detail – Very few cities have multiple papers anymore Magazines- vary in content and quality

30. The Decline of Old media

31. THE MEDIA AND CAMPAIGNS

32. Why a campaign? Minimal effects model says most people don’t switch Go after weak partisans and independents Make sure your base comes out

33. When are Campaigns Most important When we know nothing about the candidates There is no counter-information When the information is important

34. Why you try to get

35. Horse Race Coverage What is it? What does it contain Why?

36. Following The Polls

37. The keys to horse race coverage Polling Perception No issues

38. Horse Race Dominated the Primaries

39. HORSE RACE COVERAGE IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION

40. Component I: Categorizer Sorts the candidates into winners and losers Creates an Image for the candidate

41. Component II: Expectation Setter Puts odds on the candidates You want to be at the top… duh But it isn't as good as you might thinkthink

42. Component III: Mentioner You want the media to notice you Not all press is good press Mentions mean money and votes

43. Component IV:Winnowing The Press Winnows (narrows) down the candidates Attention is on Iowa and NH Frontloading is the results

44. Winnowing In 2012

45. DEBATES

46. Presidential Debates A Recent Phenomenon General Strategies Do not screw upscrew

47. Why Candidates Like these A chance for exposure A chance for Legitimacy A chance to move in the polls

48. Presidential Debates Who Wins (the leader in the polls) The Person who doesn’t make a mistake Does it matter?

49. Presidential Debates Win by not losing What don't you want to do? – The 1960 DebateDebate – Look ancientancient – Seem heartlessheartless – You are no Jack KennedyJack Kennedy – Eastern Europe is Free Eastern Europe is Free – The Global TestGlobal Test – Adm. James Stockdale Blind, Deaf, Dumb BlindDeafDumb

50. Impact of the First Debate on Coverage

51. THE GENERAL ELECTION

52. 2012 vs 2008

53. Less Horse Race than 2008

54. Obligatory Chad Long Dig

55. Negative Coverage Dominates

56. Horse Race Coverage Favors Frontrunners

57. You have No Friends on Social Media

58. The Media Missed Palin

59. THE MEDIA STRATEGY

60. The Media Strategy Getting the Message Out – Paid Advertisements – Free Press You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage Avoid cannibalizing

61. Getting Free Press Having your message get covered by the media You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money This is fully mediated

62. Maximizing Free Coverage Create a package Convey a winning message Shape an Image

63. Maximizing Free Coverage Don’t Say too Much Repeat the Few Basic Points Bad Press is Bad Press

64. Ask Herman Cain about Bad news