1. Global Synthesis and Observations Panel: GSOP activities and OOPC coordination Co-chairs Keith Haines Tong Lee input for WDAC meeting, China

2. Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major activities over the past year (1) Management activities Tony Lee new co-chair (replacing Bernadette Sloyen) Major reshuffle of panel members –New: Palmer, Yu, Balmaseda, Barnier, Mathieu, Domingues Revised ToR submitted to SSG (slide at end WDAC feedback useful!) Observations activities GO-SHIP Activities - www.go-ship.org –9 sections completed in 2011, 6 planned for 2012 –Project coordinator post needed: UNESCO/OOPC loss of US support, so pursuing coordinator through JCOMMOPS, funds now identified –User survey undertaken at US request, Report available OOPC Deep Ocean Observing Strategy –Strategy document under active development –Matt Palmer from GSOP involved now: climate modelling/attribution expertise! First XBT Science Workshop: Building a Multi-Decadal Upper Ocean Temperature Record, Melbourne 7-8 July 2011 –Report awaited Contributions to Action plan: WCRP Research Activities on Surface Fluxes, Jan 2012

3. GO-SHIP

4. Synthesis activities GSOP-5 panel meeting Grenoble, 11-13 May 2011 –Identified need for consolidated synthesis comparisons –Need of external expertise for evaluation of syntheses –Strong interest from Air-sea flux community => 2012 Workshop proposal (see plans for this year) –IFSOO and documentation of role of ocean syntheses: framework OK –Metrics from syntheses need development and regular evaluation –Input data quality and metadata requirements for syntheses need better documenting GODAE OceanView-GSOP Workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-Comparison, 13-17 June 2011: Santa Cruz –Operational Centre initiative; Coordinated data withholding experiments –Plan in place for coordinated and sustained products comparisons –Includes Ocean Climate Metrics from operational/synthesis products –“Production Centre”  “Analysis Centre” sharing of comparison work –Documentation going on web (GODAE hosting as CLIVAR web unsupp. –Barnier: GMES MyOcean presentation Reanalysis conference May 2012 WGOMD-GSOP: Potential for assim. work to help model development. Quantifying model processes. Needs small open minded group to develop Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major activities over the past year (2)

5. 5 –Validation: Intercomparison ERAi original MJM95 SST SST obs. Model dependant fluxes (evaporation, wind, turbulent heat flux, radiative fluxes) Model dependant fluxes (evaporation, wind, turbulent heat flux, radiative fluxes) Bulk formulae Model output Atmospheric variables ERAi (  a, qa, Ua, radsw, radlw) Atmospheric variables ERAi (  a, qa, Ua, radsw, radlw) Assimilation Inter-comparison of reanalyses: Surface Heat Flux: Barnier: MyOcean for Reanalysis conference Reanalysis conf: MyOcean comparisons of air-sea fluxes Seeking globally consistent SST and surface fluxes from reanalyses

6. Time-mean Net Heat Flux 1993-2009 (Downwards) 5 –Validation: Intercomparison ExpGLO 60-60 CGLORS-5.9 -1.4 GLORYS3.5 6.3 U-READ.4.1 7.0 LEGI0.6 3.2 ERA-INT8.6 10.8 MyO-ENS0.6 3.8 OAFlux - 29.1 Inter-comparison of reanalyses: Surface Heat Flux Free run LEGI has balanced fluxes as expense of SST errors. Reanalyses have good SST but global flux imbalance.

7. Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major future plans/activities(1) GSOP Workshop Ocean Synthesis and Air-Sea flux evaluation WHOI, 27-30 Nov 2012 (50-60 participants) –Sponsorship now from WCRP, USCLIVAR, NASA,NOAA (This was time consuming!!) –Air-sea flux methods and products evaluation with emphasis on modeling applications and synthesis flux products –Observation and Model based Syntheses => Global Consistency –Wider synthesis comparison reports from “Analysis Centres” GSOP 6 th panel WHOI 30 Nov- 1 Dec 2012 GODAE OceanView–GSOP Workshop: Observing System Evaluation and Coupled Data Assimilation 15-19 Apr 2013 Hobart –Funding already secure –ocean observing system: time and spatial scales; –assimilation methods (for state estimation and prediction); –coupled modelling and data assimilation (all earth system components and their interactions); –observing system evaluation (impact on prediction systems? Gaps? Over- sampling? etc.) –validation of analysis and forecast systems (quantifying observation value)

8. Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major future plans/activities(2) GSOP Workshop Ocean Sub-Surface Climate Data OS-SCD, Apr-Jun 2013 (20-30 participants) –develop a high-quality historical ocean subsurface global data set for climate research needs, including synthesis –Develop agreed semi-automated QC –Community program for future CLIVAR endorsement followed by requests for national support –Support from 5 Data Centers as well as synthesis groups –Application domains would include: more accurate (XBT/MBT) bias corrections; performance metrics to evaluate climate models; key indicators for global/regional climate variability and change; synthesis efforts; ocean model initializations; multi-disciplinary (observational and modelling) climate research, including detection and attribution studies. –Some CSIRO funding available but WCRP support also needed??

9. Quality of historical ocean subsurface temperature? Pilot study in Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific (Gronell and Wijffels, 2008) Gaussian Tail for positive depth error is much bigger Automated QC only designed to detect obvious errors. It can accept bad data as good and incorrectly identify good data as bad. Expert Manual QC: found 16% of bad data (some within background statistics). If same % bad data maintained for world ocean : ~ 1.5 million BAD temperature profiles Implications: a relatively large amount of non-trivial errors in the observations can lead to rapid and/or slowly-varying artifacts in the evolution of ocean climate signals at global and regional scales.

10. Ocean Sub-Surface Climate Data Workshop Benefits: more than 95% bad data removed nearly all duplicates removed no loss of good data only ~ 40% manual screening integrated metadata traceability errors measurements Plan for Coordinated semi-automated screening of 9 million historical T profiles Major data centres involved: US NODC/NOAA (Levitus, Boyer et al.) Japan MRI (Ishii et al.) Germany KlimaCampus (Stammer, Gouretski) UK MetOffice (Good, Palmer) Australia ACE-CRC/CSIRO (Domingues, Gronell, Cowley, Wijffels, Bindoff) Project aim: To deliver a historical global database of subsurface ocean temperature (salinity) that will meet the more demanding 21st century requirements of quality, consistency and reduced uncertainties of an escalating number of climate science underpinning decision and policy-making assessments. We need support for ONE-OFF WORKSHOP to discuss/agree in person the scope/details of the project proposal and therefore to facilitate the preparation of a scientific/implementation plan (to be submitted for CLIVAR endorsement).

11. Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Issues and Challenges for Discussion Develop GSOP relationships with Data and Modeling Councils –Synthesis NEEDS advocacy from both Councils, danger it may fall between? –How best to interact with WDAC? Develop CLIVAR Science applications community for Synthesis products –Get wider expertise involved in evaluating products, eg. Decadal Prediction, Air-Sea fluxes, … –Regional interests eg. Arctic, Nesting applications, Transport applications, eg. carbon, biogeochemistry –Synthesis/Assimilation applications to model improvement? GSOP-WGOMD –Need to increase accessibility and applicability of products- Large datasets, Standardized formats, Browsability…. –ICPO web presence? Resources for comparisons work –European COST proposal unsuccessful (currently being re-proposed) –EU GMES MyOcean2 plans –Involvement with GODAE-Oceanview community has been very successful so far as they have directable human resources

12. © Crown copyright Met Office RAPID array transports and OHC anomalies Attribution: Relative heat content wrt isotherms. Total Relative HC anomaly ≈ volume change+ average temperature change (advection) (surface fluxes) Palmer and Haines (2009) 26-41N Atlantic T anomaly 500m 1000 Chris Roberts

13. Aquarius Reveals Salinity Structure of Tropical Instability Waves for the First Time From Space, Complementary to Other Obs. Lee, T., G. Lagerloef, M. Gierach, H.-Y. Kao, S. Yueh, K. Dohan (2012, Geophys. Res. Lett. Accepted) (Aquarius SSS & AVHRR-based SST) (Aquarius SSS & satellite-based surface currents) Example for Dec. 18, 2011

14. Argo and CLIVAR Since 1998, 1080 research papers have used Argo data, including 300 in JGR, GRL, and JPO. http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/Bibliography.html Argo contributes to a broad range of climate-related basic research, including global change, in addition to operational and education applications. Recent analyses of global ocean heat content include improved estimates for the recent half century (Levitus et al., GRL, 2012), and estimated warming for the 135-year interval between the Challenger Expedition and Argo (Roemmich et al., Nature Climate Change, 2012). 1080 Argo papers As of 20 April 2012 Levitus et al., 2012 Mean Argo-minus- Challenger temperature difference (red), from Roemmich et al., 2012)

15. GSOP Membership Keith Haines (co-chair) (2013) NCEO, Reading University, Reading, UK Tony Lee (co-chair) (2014) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA Toshiyuki Awaji (2014) Kyoto University, Japan Magdalena Balmaseda (2014) ECMWF, UK Bernard Barnier (2014) Laboratoire Ecoulements Geophysiques et Industriels, Grenoble, France Catia Domingues (2015) Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Australia Pierre-Philippe Mathieu (2015) ESA, Italy Matt Palmer (2014) Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Toste Tanhua (2013) IfM-GEOMAR, Germany Lisan Yu (2015) WHOI, USA Mike McPhaden - Chair of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel NOAA PMEL, Seattle, USA Dean Roemmich - co-Chair of the Argo Steering Team Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA Uwe Send - co-Chair of OceanSITES Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA Ex-Officio

16. New Revised GSOP ToR The CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations panel is established to: 1. Develop, promote and seek to implement strategies for the synthesis of global ocean, atmosphere and coupled climate information. Methods will include observation-based syntheses and model-based syntheses e.g. Reanalyses. 2. Define CLIVAR's requirement for globally sustained observations and promote the use of resulting data sets in global synthesis efforts. Provide strategic advice and supporting evidence in collaboration with WMO and IOC bodies, to help sustain, evolve and optimise the global ocean observing system based on new science and reanalysis insights. 3. Develop metrics to evaluate ocean and coupled syntheses, to promote the utility of synthesis products for climate applications, including initialisation of coupled forecasts, detection/attribution of climate change and variability, and determining the oceans role in the global heat, water and biogeochemical cycles. 4. Provide strategic advice and direction to CLIVAR/WCRP data management and processing activities within the Framework for Ocean Observing, related to production of climate quality global ocean synthesis products. 5. Liaise and collaborate with WCRP Councils, Panels and Working Groups in identifying the requirements for, and coordinating the development of, a sustainable Earth system monitoring and prediction system. 6. The Panel will report to the CLIVAR SSG.

17. Current GSOP EasyInit site