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First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E.

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Presentation on theme: "First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E."— Presentation transcript:

1 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University

2 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University

3 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University

4 First results of recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea for 1961-2099 ECOSUPPORT co-workers Annual General Assembly 15 Oct 2009 H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University

5 Regional climate models: Improving global climate scenarios Global Regional  Increased resolution → detailed regional forcing  Greater number of explicitly resolved processes

6 New simulations at SMHI: 1.Hindcast simulation 1961-2007: RCAO/ERA-40 2.Two transient simulations 1961-2099: RCAO/GCM New compared to BACC: no time slices, IPCC 2007, new model versions

7 The Rossby Centre ensemble NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3

8 NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 Different AOGCMs All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3 The Rossby Centre ensemble

9 NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3 The Rossby Centre ensemble

10 NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3 The Rossby Centre ensemble

11 NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) Different emission scenarios All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3 The Rossby Centre ensemble

12 NoAOGCM (Institute, country) Emission scena rio Horisontal resolution (km) 1Arpège (CNRM, France)A1B50 2BCM (NERSC, Norway)A1B50 325 4CCSM3 (NCAR, USA)A250 5A1B50 6B250 7ECHAM4 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 8B250 9ECHAM5 (MPI-met, Germany)A250 10A1B50 1150 1250 1325 1412.5 15B150 16HadCM3 (Hadley Centre, UK) ref (Q0)A1B50 17low (Q3)50 18high (Q16)50 19low (Q3)25 20IPSL-CM4 (IPSL, France)A1B50 Different AOGCMs Different initial conditions Different model formulation (GCM) Different emission scenarios Different horizontal resolution All simulations on the ENSEMBLES grid with RCA3 The Rossby Centre ensemble

13 Biases in the recent past climate (1961-1990): winter (DJF) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

14 Biases in the recent past climate (1961-1990): summer (JJA) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

15 Seasonal mean 2m air temperature at Gotland Deep 1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

16 Seasonal mean 10m wind speed at Gotland Deep 1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

17 Seasonal mean precipitation at Gotland Deep 1980-2006 – downscaling results using RCA Observations

18 Mean 2m air temperature (winter), 1980-2006 ObservationsRCA/ERA40RCA/ECHAM5

19 Mean 2m air temperature (summer), 1980-2006 ObservationsRCA/ERA40RCA/ECHAM5

20 Mean 2m air temperature (summer), 1980-2006 ObservationsRCAO/ERA40RCAO/ECHAM5

21 Climate change (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990): winter (DJF) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

22 Climate change (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990): summer (JJA) mean temperature and MSLP Source: Erik Kjellström, SMHI

23 Mean seasonal cycles of SST (in °C) averaged for the Baltic Sea Black: Hindcast 1961-2007 Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B Solid: Control period 1970-1999 Dashed: Scenario period 2070-2099

24 Filtered runoff 1970-2090 (m 3 /s) Black: Observations Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B

25 Volume averaged, annual mean temperature Volume averaged, annual mean salinity Black: Hindcast Red: RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B Blue: RCAO/HadCM3 A1B

26 Changes of bottom oxygen concentrations (in ml/l) RCAO/HadCM3 A1B Annual meanWinter (DJF)Summer (JJA)

27 Annual meanWinter (DJF)Summer (JJA) Changes of bottom oxygen concentrations (in ml/l) RCAO/ECHAM5 A1B

28 Annual mean phytoplankton concentration (in mgChl m -3 ) vertically averaged over the upper 10 m HadCM3 A1B Present climate 1970-1999Future climate 2070-2099

29 Annual mean phytoplankton concentration (in mgChl m -3 ) vertically averaged over the upper 10 m ECHAM5 A1B Present climate 1970-1999Future climate 2070-2099

30 Summary 1.The quality of the GCMs differs significantly. As a starting point we have selected ECHAM5 and HadCM3. We performed transient simulations with realistic control climate for the Baltic Sea. 2.Improved summer SSTs using the coupled RCAO model. 3.We found increased runoff but the mean wind speed changes are statistically not significant. Hence salinity decreases are smaller than in earlier scenario simulations. 4.Overall oxygen decrease but slight increases in ECHAM5 driven scenario simulations in intermediate depths. 5.Increased phytoplankton concentrations in both scenario simulations. 6.Next steps: runoff from a hydrological model HYPE, higher resolution in RCA (25 km)

31 2015-12-05 First results based on RCO-SCOBI and IPCC 2001: 1.Future climate might be characterized by increased water temperatures, increased mixing, and (reduced loads) in the Baltic Proper 2.Increased water temperatures => decreased oxygen concentrations in all regions 3.Increased mixing => increased oxygen concentrations below the halocline => reduced winter DIP and reduced denitrification (i.e. increased DIN) 4.Increased water temperature and increased mixing => increased (decreased) phytoplankton concentrations in the south-western (northern) Baltic Proper 5.In future climate the ”business-as-usual in agricultural practices” scenario may have larger impacts than in present climate 6.The BSAP will likely reduce the phytoplankton concentrations also in future climate

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