1. The workshop on “Determinants of Health Longevity in China” (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany August 2-4, 2004 Lengthening of life and emergence of the oldest old : can we extend the healthy longevity survey in Hong Kong? By CHEUNG, S.L. Karen[1] YIP S. F. Paul[2], CHI Iris[3] and ROBINE Jean-Marie[4][1][2][3][4] [1][1] Department of Demography, University of Rome “La Sapienza” [2] Department of Statistics and Actuary Science, The University of Hong Kong [3] Sau Po Ageing Centre, The University of Hong Kong [4] INSERM and Health and Demography team, Department of Biostatistics, University of Montpellier 1 [2] [3] [4]

2. Life expectancy at birth Vs Modal length of life

3. Increase in life expectancy at birth and modal length of life, males and females after the 1960s

4. Increase in life expectancy at age 80, males and females, from 1971 to 2001

5. Compression of mortality with normal indicators, males and females, 1976 and 2001

6. Three dimensions on the rectangularization of survival curve, males and females, 1976 and 2001

7. Objectives 1. Describe and monitor the change in oldest-old and centenarians in HK 2. Collect, review and synthesize Health surveys since 1980s 3. Explore the possibility to launch a Longitudinal Survey on Healthy Longevity in HK Data sources 1. Micro Known Mortality dataset, 1976-2001 2. Census estimated and projected populations

8. Increase in the absolute number of deaths of oldest old by single age for both sexes, from 1976 to 2001

9. Rate of increase in deaths of oldest old (logarithmic scale) by single age for both sexes, from 1976 to 2001

10. Increase in the absolute number of deaths at age 99+, males and females, from 1976 to 2001

11. Increase in the proportion of 65+, 75+ and 85+ for both sexes, 1961-2001, and prospects up to 2031

12. Increase in the absolute number of oldest old for both sexes, 1981-2001 (census years)

13. Increase in the absolute number of oldest-old (aged 80+), males and females, 1981-2001 (census years)

14. Increase in the absolute number of centenarian (aged 100+), males and females, 1981-2001 (census years)

15. Since the 1980s several studies conducted locally on various topics among elderly populations… …can we extend the Chinese Longitudinal Survey on Healthy Longevity in Hong Kong?

16. Health Status survey in Hong Kong since 1980s by General Household Survey or government agencies

17. Major Health Status survey among elderly populations in Hong Kong since 1980s by Universities

20. Other surveys among elderly populations also found in Hong Kong BUT…

21. Problem of existing survey data by GHS or Universities 1. Cross-sectional surveys 2. No raw dataset available to public, only population estimates provided on request 3. Selectively analyzed and presented results 4. Datasets are underused 5. District and/ or hospital – restricted/driven 6. Bias – sample source 7. Mainly cross-sectional surveys, only one longitudinal by CU, but not available for public 8. Proportional sampling design – insufficient sample sizes – especially, 90-99 and 100+ and suppress the heterogeneity of the oldest-old 9. Grouped 85+, 80+, or even 75+ as one category

22. Research Niches No research explain why the proliferation of oldest- old and centenarians No research on how different factors (i.e. socio- economic, behavioral, environmental and biological factors) influence the healthy longevity to oldest old and centenarians Research on their needs (i.e. social, health, care and welfare needs) is rare Little research shows whether a longer life with a worsening health

23. Thank you!