1. Thailand’s experiences in the power sector Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen Chris Greacen, Ph.D. Palang Thai International Seminar on Dams and Sustainable Energy 24 March 2005 Melia Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam

2. Overview Energy consumption and economic development Thai government’s energy strategies Current practices and consequences of Thai power sector planning –Load growth forecast –Power development plan (PDP) –GMS Grid An alternative to the supply-driven power sector planning Thailand’s abundant clean energy opportunities –8% target –Potential –Examples

3. Thailand compared with Vietnam ThailandVietnam Population65 million83 million GDP per capita (PPP) $7,400$2,500 GDP growth (2003 est.) 6.7%7.2% GDP by sectorAgriculture: 10% Industry: 44% Services: 46% Agriculture: 22% Industry: 40% Services: 38% Electricity consumption 90 billion kWh28 billion kWh Source: CIA World Factbook, 2005

4. Thailand’s power consumption growth outstrips economic growth

5. Thai government has set a target for energy elasticity 1.0 (2008)

6. * Source : EGAT’s Power Development Plan 2003 ** Source : Electricity Demand Forecast Report, January 2004 Ratio of GDP growth to electricity demand growth in Thailand Thailand GDP growth Electricity consumption growth Ratio of GDP to power demand growth 1992-2002 2003-2016 1.45 times 1.84 times 2.02 times 2.39 times 1.4 1.3

7. January 2004 Demand Forecast

8. Past peak demand projections tended to over-estimate

9. Power Development Plan (Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)

13. Regional Power Grid Main agenda of regional cooperation Claimed benefits: –Increased reliability, shared power reserves –Energy transfer among member countries with different peak periods, resources –Savings of 1,377 – 2,554 MW new capacity avoided (Source: ADB’s GMS Grid Master Plan)

14. 2020 Peak Demand in GMS Countries Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002

15. ADB’s Interconnection Master Plan for GMS countries Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002

16. Reality of GMS Power Grid: expensive, risky investment Costs excluded in analysis: –Control center –Water usage –Regulator & reliability coordination –Transitional costs Increased vulnerability: events in Laos/Cambodia determine reliability of Thai Grid US$billion Project cost43.50 - 44.96 Cost savings* 0.45 - 0.91 % benefit of total cost 1.0 – 2.1% *Cost savings of extended power cooperation scenarios over base case Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.

17. US$10 billion overinvestment The public is bearing high electricity costs as a result of THB 400 billion (US$10 billion) over- investment of in power generation. -- Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra Source: The Nation (2003). “PM Pressing for Egat IPO this year’. The Nation. March 14.

18. There is an alternative to the supply-driven, capital-intensive power sector planning

19. Revised Peak Demand Forecast

20. Projects under construction/negotiation EGAT’s PDP 2004 Alternative PDP Thermal Kra Bi #1340.0 MW Gas Turbine Lan Kra Bue122.0 MW Lum Ta Kong hyfro dam #1-2500.0 MW BLCP Power #1-21,346.5 MW Gulf Power Generation700.0 MW Ratchaburi Power #1-21,400.0 MW SPP (renewable)151.1 MW SPP (old power purchase declaration) 60.0 MW Nam Thuen 2 in Laos920.0 MW total5539.6MW

21. New Projects EGAT’s PDP 2004 Alternative PDP

22. Cleaner, more economic, more efficient sources of supply are not given due consideration despite high potential Cogeneration Demand-side Management and energy efficiency Wind, solar, micro- hydropower, biogas, biomass, etc. Combined power and heat (CHP) or co-generation COGEN

23. DSM & Cogeneration: big potential DSM –2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective DSM” in 1991 (Utility study) IIEC (International Institute for Energy Conservation). 1991. Demand Side Management for Thailand’s Electric Power System: Five-Year Master Plan. Submitted to Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Metropolitan Electricity Authority and Provincial Electricity Authority, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand. November. Cogeneration –8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001 http://www.jxj.com/magsandj/cospp/2002_05/cogen_southeast_asia.html –Since 1998, utilities accepting no new cogen. At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.

24. Hourly electricity load duration curve (year 2002) > 1,000 MW in 66 hours

25. Renewables account for very little of Thailands’ installed generating capacity Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan Natural gas lignite Big hydro Fuel oil 0.6% grid-connected renewables TOTAL: 26,000 MW Imported coal

26. TE = Traditional Energy NRE = New & Renewable Energy TE 11% NRE 8% (6,668 KTOE) Conventional energy 81% 52,939 KTOE 2002 (265 ktoe) 2011 83,354 KTOE NRE 0.5% TE 16.5% Conventional energy 81% Thai government target: 8% renewable energy by year 2011

27. Thai government target & strategy for renewable energy RE 8% RE 0.5% Bio Fuel (Incentive) 1,600 KTOE Ethanol 3.0 M liter/day Bio diesel 2.4 M liter/day Heat ~ 0.00 KTOE Bio fuel ~ 0.00 KTOE 20022011 R & D RPS INCENTIVE Electricity 1,170 KTOE Facilitator RPS 437 MW - Solar 200 MW - Wind 100 MW - MSW 100 MW - Biomass - Hydro Incentive 1,093 MW -Biomass -Hydro Electricity Solar 6 MW Wind 0.2 MW Biomass 560 MW 37 MW Replacement of imported oil 48 mill. barrels values 96,537 Mill. Baht Heat (Incentive) 3,900 KTOE

28. Estimate of installed grid-connected renewables in Thailand (2004) ResourceCapacity (MW) Biogas7 Biomass215 (to grid) (not including 419 MW self-gen) Small & micro-hydro139 Solar PV1.2 Wind0.7 TOTAL363 Source: 2003 Thai government figures + updates for biogas & PV based on recent installations

29. ResourceTechnical potential (MW) Commerical Potential* (MW) Year 2011 Government targets (MW) Biomass (includes biogas) Solar PV Wind Micro- & Mini- hydro 7,000 >5,000 1,600 700 >4,300 ? >200 1140 250 100 350 Total>14,000>4,5001840 Estimated renewable energy potential in Thailand Source: Technical potential and Targets from Thai Ministry of Energy. (2003).“Energy Strategy for Competitiveness” http://www.eppo.go.th/admin/moe-workshop1/index.html. Commercial potential from from Black & Veatch 2000 and NEPO/DANCED 1998 as well as interviews with power plant managers.http://www.eppo.go.th/admin/moe-workshop1/index.html * Commercial potential based on actual prices paid to renewable energy generators currently on-line

30. Breakdown of economically viable biomass resource Biomass resourceEconomic potential (MW) Bagasse1900 Biogas (cassava, pig, food waste)1185 Wood residues950 Rice husk100 Corncob54 Distillery slop49 Coconut43 Palm oil residues43 TOTAL4,324 Source: Black and Veatch (2000). Final Report: Thailand Biomass-Based Power Generation and Cogeneration Within Small Rural Industries. Bangkok, NEPO; NEPO/DANCED (1998). Investigation of Pricing Incentive in a Renewable Energy Strategy -- Main report. Bangkok. Bagasse figure from interview with interview with Sirisak Tatong, power plant manager at Mitr Phol sugar factory. Biogas from interviews with biogas developers

31. Technology is available… Steam turbines for direct combustion of biomass –Rice husk, wood chip, palm husk, bagasse, coconut husk, etc. –Size >1 MW –Capital cost $1200/kW –Commercially available in Thailand Bio-digestors & engines for biogas –Pig manure, cassava, palm oil, municipal wastes, distillery slop –Size > 30 kW –Problems with SO 2 resolvable Gasifiers –Rice husk, wood chip –Size > 50 kW. –Problems with tar in some fuels –Commercially available for wood chip

32. Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity

33. Biogas from Pig Farms

34. Community micro-hydro Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai 40 kW Community cooperative Expected gross revenues: 30,000 baht/month

35. 40 kW micro-hydro generator at Mae Kam Pong

36. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity Earns high market returns Developer estimates 300 MW from waste water + 800 MW from wet cake

37. Korat Waste to Energy - biogas 3 x 1 MW Jenbacher gas generators

38. Thank you For more information, please contact chom@palangthai.org chris@palangthai.org chom@palangthai.org chris@palangthai.org

39. Proposed reform for Thailand’s power sector Transmission Utility (EGAT Transmission) TransmissionSystem OperationHydropower Power Purchase IPP/Egco/Ratch/SPP ~ 10,000 MW New generation (distributed generation/ community-owned/ renewables) EGAT (Thermal Generation) ~ 15,000 MW New Generation (Private sector) Existing demand ~ 19,000 MW New demand (residential/smal l businesses/ others) New demand (large users) Distribution Utilities (MEA/PEA) DistributionSupply/Retail * Independent Regulatory Body กัน * Communities and local bodies have the right to manage and procure their own power supply if they wish. MEA/PEA provide distribution services but do not monopolize the system use.

40. The “alternative PDP”: a response to the problems of supply-driven planning process EGAT PDP Excessive electricity demand prediction Little consideration of clean/cost-effective alternatives Alternative PDP Correct errors; revise demand based on historic growth Incorporate DSM, cogeneration, and renewable energy