1. Register entries/exits and demographic flows: some comparisons for statistical aggregates Caterina Viviano 18th Roundtable Beijing, China October 2004

2. Issue: Verify differences in the production of demographic statistics using registration and deregistration instead of identifying the real births and deaths by the harmonised methodology Contents: BD methodology Indicators comparison: birth rate gross turnover net turnover Main outcomes

3. Eurostat BD project aims to harmonise methodology to obtain comparable statistics BD methodology is already operative in participating EU countries Developed internal procedures are costly and complex

4. BD methodology -summary Purpose: identify the real new enterprise births and deaths Id process for births: step 0 - Population of active enterprises in year t: P(t) source of data: BR units: legal units active units: employment/turnover or other national method

5. step 1 - The new enterprises (entries) in year t subset of Pop(t) need of Pop(t-1) need of Pop(t-2) for elimination of reactivations E1 = new enterprises = units not active in t-2  not active in t-1  active in t E1 entries without reactivated units

6. step 2 - Other creations: events of structural changes (merger, demerger, take-off, split-off) need of updating information through administrative data and manual profiling activities E2 = E1 - E ev E2 entries without reactivated units and without events

7. step 3 - Other creations: Links for continuity (change of legal status, inheritance successions, partnerships) Continuity rules: 3 id variables (name, location, sector) name & location name & sector sector & location Tool: Record linkage process E3 = E2 - E cont

8. E3 entries without reactivated units and without events and without creations for continuity E3 identifies the real births E1 352,000 E2 350,000 E3 295,000 Pop(2002)* 3,833,000 *Nace sectors from C to K

9. Problematic areas 1. Identification of active population -impact on E1- methodology to determine the status of activity 2. Identification of events -impact on E2 - monitor of large enterprise skilled staff updated administrative information. 3. Continuity rules: identification and assignment weakness of RL automatic procedures links with high risk of errors continuity concepts limitations

10. Analysis of some demographic indicators Indicators calculated on the basis of the three subset of data E1, E2 and E3

11. BOX-plot 1: Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity, year 2002

12. BOX-plot 2: Enterprise birth rates (%) for economic activity in terms of persons employed

13. Results - enterprise birth rate comparisons Enterprise Variability: the same shape: the same median: 25% less from E1 to E3 Employment From E1 to E2: Variability: increases sectors highly concentrated move from Q3 to Q1

14. Average size

15. Figure 2 - Enterprise gross turnover rate - year 2001 Ent. gross turnover rate = where j=1,2,3

16. Figure 3 - Employment gross turnover rate - year 2001 gross turnover rate (empl.)= where j=1,2,3

17. Ranking of economic sectors E1 E2 r ent =0.92 r empl =0.81 E1 E2 r ent =0.96 r empl =0.81 r ent =0.96 r empl =0.98 Rank-order correlation index r-spearman Towards lower ranks Towards upper ranks (enterprise) hotels (employment) research (employment) coke, transport equipment, energy

18. Paper coke rubber transport equ. energy Transport post&telecom financial int. Hotels retail trade Gross turnover rate: changes in employment Reduction both in level and trend due to events Reduction in level due to events Reduction in level due to continuity

19. Figure 4 - Enterprise net turnover rate - year 2001 where j=1,2,3 Enterprise net turnover rate =

20. Figure 5 - Employment net turnover rate - year 2001 Ent. net turnover rate (empl.) =where j=1,2,3

21. Summary BD methodology (continuity rules): with reference to enterprises: impacts on levels of indicators does not produce significant changes in the economic activity distribution produces significant changes in the net turnover rate with reference to employment: impacts on levels of indicators, on the sectors’ distribution and produces very significant changes in the net turnover rate due to events

22. Results demonstrate the importance to concentrate efforts in the identification of mergers and demergers the necessity of more updated information on events to increase the manual controls activities above all in presence of a large birth or death. Conclusion