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A Short Course on: Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation Presented at: Honeywell March 14 – 17, 2006 Stephen F. Duffy PhD, PE Connecticut Reserve Technologies,

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Presentation on theme: "A Short Course on: Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation Presented at: Honeywell March 14 – 17, 2006 Stephen F. Duffy PhD, PE Connecticut Reserve Technologies,"— Presentation transcript:

1 A Short Course on: Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation Presented at: Honeywell March 14 – 17, 2006 Stephen F. Duffy PhD, PE Connecticut Reserve Technologies, LLC Cleveland State University Eric Baker Connecticut Reserve Technologies, LLC

2 Table of Contents Section 1 Load & Resistance (Fundamentals) Structural Reliability: Fundamentals Load/Resistance Analysis: An Approximate Approach (J. Margetson) Reliability Analysis Proof Testing: Truncated Distributions Section 2Computing Reliability The General Case Conventional Monte Carlo Method Basic Variables and the Limit State Function Reliability Index b Interpreting the Reliability Index The Hasofer-Lind Method Solution Algorithms for Obtaining the Reliability Index (S. Mahadevan) Non-Normal Basic Variables: the Rackwitz-Fiessler Method Section 3 System Reliability & Weibull Analysis Introduction to System Reliability Series Reliability System An Introduction to Weibull Analysis Asymptotic Extreme Value Distributions Weibull Analysis Proof Testing & the Weibull Distribution

3 Table of Contents (continued) Section 4 Parameter Estimation for Fast Fracture Strength Data Introduction to Estimation Theory Parameter Estimation: Preliminaries Method of Moments Minimizing Residuals Linear Regression Probabilistic Regression Analysis Probability of Failure: Ranking Schemes Linear Regression: Two Parameter Weibull Distribution Non-Linear Regression Analysis Non-Linear Regression Analysis: Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Method of Maximum Likelihood (MLE) MLE: Two Parameter Weibull Distribution MLE: Gaussian (Normal) Distribution Section 5 Time Dependent Weibull Analysis Introduction Batdorf’s Theory Subcritical Crack Growth Model Time Dependent Batdorf Model Time Dependent PIA Model Subcritical Crack Growth Model: Creep (Static Fatigue) Subcritical Crack Growth Model: Monotonic Loading (Dynamic Fatigue) Subcritical Crack Growth Model: Fatigue (Cyclic Fatigue) Parameter Estimation: Time Dependent Strength Data

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