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Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics & GovernanceDirector, Center for.

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Presentation on theme: "Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics & GovernanceDirector, Center for."— Presentation transcript:

1 Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics & GovernanceDirector, Center for the Study of Politics & Governance Humphrey Institute, University of MinnesotaHumphrey Institute, University of Minnesota

2 Presidential ElectionPresidential Election

3 STACKING THE DECKSTACKING THE DECK Party identification: Growing Dem Advantage Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2000-2007 yearly averages; 2008 data from September 29, 2008

4 Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 21-26, 2004, October 23-28, 2006, and October 24-28, 2008

5 ECONOMIC 9/11ECONOMIC 9/11 Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

6 OBAMA BENEFITS FROM DEBATE ON ECONOMY RATHER THAN TERRORISM Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

7 BUSH DRAGBUSH DRAG Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

8 WRONG TRACKWRONG TRACK Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

9 OBAMA'S ENTHUSIASM GAPOBAMA'S ENTHUSIASM GAP Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

10 U.S. SENATE SEATS TO WATCH FOR DEMS TO BREAK FILIBUSTER (60) StateIncumbent AlaskaTed Stevens (R), Mark Begich (D) ColoradoBob Schaffer (R), Mark Udall (D) Georgia*Saxby Chambliss (R), Jim Martin (D), Allen Buckley (L) KentuckyMitch McConnell (R), Bruce Lunsford (D) MinnesotaNorm Coleman (R), Al Franken (D) MississippiRoger Wicker (R), Ronnie Musgrove (D) New HampshireJohn Sununu (R), Jeanne Shaheen (D) New MexicoSteve Pearce (R), Tom Udall (D) North CarolinaElizabeth Dole (R), Kay Hagan (D) OregonGordon Smith (R), Jeff Merkley (D) VirginiaJim Gilmore (R), Mark Warner (D) Note: Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are open seats, all previously held by Republicans. *December runoff if no candidate reaches 50%

11 CLOSEST ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALSCLOSEST ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS

12 OTHER ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALSOTHER ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS

13 Minnesota House ElectionsMinnesota House Elections

14 DistrictRegionDFLRepublicanThird Party 13AFreeportBruce ShuckPaul Anderson 22BWorthingtonRichard PetersonRod Hamilton* 41AEdinaKevin StauntonKeith Downey Ron Erhardt* (Independent) 41BBloomingtonPaul RosenthalJan Schneider 48BAnokaAndrew BohoJim Abeler* 49BCoon RapidsJerry NewtonJake Cimenski WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OVERRIDE 6?WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OVERRIDE 6?

15 DistrictRegion Bush MoV in 2004 Pawlenty MoV in 2006 DFLRepublicanThird Party 12ABrainerd13.05.6John Ward*David Pundt 12BLittle Falls17.011.0Al Doty*Mike LeMieur 17BNorth Branch12.511.6Jeremy Kalin*Don Taylor 29BRochester4.114.8Kim Norton*Jason Johnson 37AApple Valley3.711.3Shelly Madore*Tara Mack 51A (open) Blaine5.68.0Shawn HamiltonTim SandersDaniel Sanders (IP) 53AShoreview7.414.1Paul Gardner*John Kappler 56ALake Elmo5.214.7Julie Bunn*Kathy Lohmer 56BWoodbury6.417.0Marsha Swails*Lee Bohlsen VULNERABLE DFL SEATS HELD BY FIRST TERM HOUSE MEMBERS

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