1. Land Needs Simulator: Overview and Recommended Assumptions Presented to: RPS Policy Committee Presented by: ECONorthwest January 9, 2007

2. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 2 Overview Previous work provides foundation: Housing needs analysis Economic opportunities analysis Forecasts Land needs simulator Overview of simulator Discussion of key assumptions Output

3. The Land Needs Simulator

4. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 4 Purpose The simulator is a tool to: Articulate assumptions needed to develop estimates for sizing of UGBs and URAs Estimate acres needed in URAs to accommodate employment and housing Aid as a decision-making tool

5. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 5

6. Summary of Key Assumptions

7. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 7 Four categories of assumptions Forecasts Employment Housing Other

8. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 8 Forecasts Population Total increase: 162,853 Population increase in unincorporated areas: 18,776 Population increase in UGBs/URAs: 144,077 Employment Total increase: 96,106

9. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 9 Employment Assumptions Employment by land use type Percent of Employment that requires no vacant land Employees per acre Employment net to gross factor

10. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 10 Summary of Employment Assumptions

11. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 11 Housing Assumptions Percent of persons in group quarters Housing Mix Average household size Vacancy rate Average residential density Existing density in UGBs and URAs Percent of housing that requires no new residential land

12. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 12 Summary of Housing Assumptions

13. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 13 Other Land Needs Public operations and facilities Parks and open space Semi-public uses

14. Results

15. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 15 Comparison of Scenarios

16. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 16 Comparison of Scenarios Output is most sensitive to: Density assumptions Assumptions that growth requires no new land

17. RPS Land Needs SimulatorRPS Policy Committee 17 Recommendations Assumptions for “low” and “medium” scenarios more appropriate To narrow range of figures and refine sensitivity to key density assumptions, start by holding some assumptions constant: Gross to net factors % of housing/emp that requires no new land Distribution of future employment