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12/5/20151 Coachella Valley 2010 Now What? John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.
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After Losing 8.36 Million Jobs … U.S. Job Creation Is Crawling Back
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! Consumers Confidence Decaying Again! 100.0 = Normal
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12/5/20154 So. CA Job Change, 1991-2010e -488,700 -886,849 -10.0%
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12/5/20155 Inland Empire Job Change, 1984-2010e +20,600 -168,577 -13.1%
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12/5/20156 Coachella Valley, Job Changes 1,879 14,121 -10.1%
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12/5/20157 Worst National Unemployment Rates
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12/5/20158 “ ” not U or V Shape of Recovery?
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12/5/20159 What About the Future? … Look At The Economic Base
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Economic Base 12/5/201511 Construction Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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12/5/201512 Existing Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures 7.3%
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New Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures 12/5/201513
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12/5/201514 Existing Home Price Rebound To 2003 Level 30.5%
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12/5/201515 New Home Price Back To 2000-2002 Level … Just Above Existing Homes
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12/5/201516 Coachella Valley Housing Permits At Modern Low … Can’t Build At These Prices
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12/5/201517 42,60743.7% 42,607 Traded 2004-7 of 97,471 Total (43.7%) 31,995 31,995 Drained Equity 74,562 76.5% 74,562 Problem Homes of 97,471 Total (76.5%) 46.6% County Average Notices of Default 46.6% County Average Notices of Default 34,746 Notices of Default Filed (estimate) 39,816 Where Are They? Supply: Upside Down Homes
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Somebody Has To Take A Major Hit! Homeowners Lose Their Homes Lenders Lose Part of Their Investments Mortgage Backed Security Owners Lose Part of Their Investments Taxpayers Subsidize One of the Above Until This Happens … We Don’t Have A Recovery!
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12/5/201519 Isn’t There Any Good News? Yes!
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12/5/201520 Supply & Demand Demand From Lower Prices Supply From Foreclosures vs.
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Price Stability? Riverside Co.San Bernardino Co. May$180,000 $137,000 June$185,0002.80%$140,0002.20% July$185,0002.80%$140,0002.20% August$190,0005.60%$145,0005.80% Sept.$183,0001.70%$150,0009.50% Oct.$190,0005.60%$150,0009.50% Nov.$200,00011.10%$160,00016.80% Dec.$196,0008.90%$154,00012.40% Jan-10$195,0008.30%$150,0009.50% Feb.$190,0005.60%$144,0005.10% Mar.$198,00010.00%$152,00010.90% Apr.$195,0008.30%$150,0009.50% May$210,00016.70%$160,00016.80% June$210,00016.70%$160,00016.80% July$200,00011.10%$155,00013.10% August$200,00011.10%$158,00015.30% Sept.$200,00011.10%$160,00016.80%
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Assessed Valuation UP … Next Move Is UP!
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12/5/201523 Demand Soaring CV Housing Affordability Sets A Record & Drives Demand 62% 10% 53% 55%
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Competitive Housing Prices 12/5/201524
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DoneConstTotal Palm Springs-Cath. Cty, DHSprgs.170 Rancho Mirage8715 Palm Desert62127 Indian Wells-La Quinta7533108 Indio-Coachella1731 48 12392215 12/5/2015 Limited New Home Supply, 2 nd -2010
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Economic Base 12/5/201526 ConstructionD- Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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Hotel Rates, A Weak Pulse 12/5/201527 Corporate Meetings & Conventions Still Missing
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Airport Volume Increasing 12/5/201528 Wishing For More Flights Like Phoenix-Scottsdale
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Car Rental Activity On & Near Airport 12/5/201529 Tourists … Not Business Travelers?
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12/5/201530 Transit Occupancy Tax: Palm Springs 12.7% -1.1% -0.4% -11.9% 4.8% 21.6% 13,024,611 14,677,511 14,521,402 14,466,704 12,751,478 13,367,685 FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11 July/Aug. Note: FY 2011 Based On July-August 2009-2010 Source: City of Palm Springs Transit Occupancy Tax Palm Springs, FY 2005 to FY 2011 ytd Cold Weather In So. California Helped!
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Increased Tourist Options: Possible Thermal Motor Sports Park 12/5/201531
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Retail Sales … Finally Some Life 12/5/201532
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12/5/201533 Retail Sales By City
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Economic Base 12/5/201534 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD- TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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High Value Crops 12/5/201535
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Agricultural Production 12/5/201536 When Construction Recovers … Will Need The “AgJobs” Temporary Visa Program
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Economic Base 12/5/201537 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD- TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Clean Energy Initiatives 12/5/201538 Demand Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing (PACE) Palm Desert Municipal Program AB 811 Net Metering Development Skill Training To Work In the Industry Electric Vehicle Production
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Economic Base 12/5/201539 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Creative Arts 12/5/201540
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Major Films & Important Commercials Are Already Shot in the Coachella Valley 12/5/201541 Value of Filming Activity Coachella Valley Coachella ValleyRiverside Co.Share 2006$11,892,591$24,225,50049.1% 2007$10,174,750$15,336,75066.3% 2008$11,705,000$13,551,00086.4% 2009$4,732,000$9,639,20049.1% 2006-2006$38,504,341$62,752,45061.4% Assumes Coachella Valley equal to lowest share of 2007-2009 Source: Inland Empire Film Commission
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Opportunities Exist: 12/5/201542 Coachella Valley Has Always Been A Hollywood Playground Films & Commercials Are Already Shot In the Valley Major Venues Already Require Skilled Technicians Major Entertainment & Film Related Events Already Take Place Relationships With Key Arts & Entertainment Leaders Already Exist Its Time To Take The Next Step & Seriously Become A Center For the Creative Arts
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Economic Base 12/5/201543 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Logistics Links 12/5/201544
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Key Transportation Links 12/5/201545 To East To Mexico To East & Mexico
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Distribution 12/5/201546
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Economic Base 12/5/201547 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Facilities & Medical Staff 12/5/201548
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Health Care Employment 12/5/201549
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Age Distribution 12/5/201550
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Economic Base 12/5/201551 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- Retirees Manufacturing
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Is the Past … the Future? 12/5/201552
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Active Baby Boomer Retirees 12/5/201553 Now This No Longer Just This
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Economic Base 12/5/201554 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- RetireesA Manufacturing
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Manufacturing Jobs Back Below 1997 Level 12/5/201555
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Setting Conditions For The Future 12/5/201556 ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- RetireesA ManufacturingD- Over All Grade C-
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Other Key Current Facts … 12/5/201557
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12/5/201558 Growth Has Slowed
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12/5/201559 Academic Performance
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12/5/201560 Adult Educational Level Economic Target: Educational Performance
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12/5/201561 What Jobs Grew?
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12/5/201562 Largest Employers
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12/5/201563 Payroll Released Into Valley
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12/5/201564 Crime Per 1,000 Residents
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12/5/201565 2010, 2011 When Will “Normal” Start To Return? x 2012 If Mortgages Fixed! x x 2014-2015 Not
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12/5/201566 www.johnhusing.com
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