1. Climate feedbacks for global warming

2. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation? Two types of ocean upwelling Mean state: ocean-atmosphere feedback ENSO: Which region has warm SST anomaly during El Nino? 4- year period. Existing ENSO theories AMO and thermohaline circulation

3. Global connections

4. The most common atmospheric circulation structure L H H L Heating Cooling or No Heating Imbalance of heating  Imbalance of temperature  Imbalance of pressure  Wind Radiation Convection Conduction Latent/Sensible Biosphere Land/Ocean/Ice/Stra tosphere Feedback Greenhouse Gases Pollution Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)

5. How do human activities change the global climate? Human beings are changing the global climate system in three different ways: Change land cover (deforestation and afforestation) Release or cleanse pollutants (aerosols) Release or cleanse greenhouse gases

6. Observed Change in Global Temperature: Significant warming

7. Global map of temperature change: Largest warming in Arctic (“Arctic amplification”) Larger warming over land than ocean

8. Projected Change in Global Temperature: Significant warming

9. The spread comes from uncertainties in climate feedbacks

10. Main climate feedbacks for global warming Ice albedo Lapse rate (temperature) Water vapor Cloud Aerosol Carbon cycle

11. Ice albedo feedback

12. Lapse rate feedback Surface Tropopaus e Surface warming Same lapse rate Larger Longwave flux Warming of whole troposphere Cooling down of surface temperature

13. Water vapor feedback

14. Cloud feedback Stronger warming effect Stronger cooling effect

15. Aerosol feedback

16. Video: Carbon Cycle http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pla yer_detailpage&v=U3SZKJVKRxQhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pla yer_detailpage&v=U3SZKJVKRxQ

17. Global carbon cycle

18. Carbon cycle feedback

19. Carbon cycle feedback Example 1: Permafrost thaw

20. Carbon cycle feedback Example 2: Biosphere

21. Carbon cycle feedback sources

22. Feedback strength in climate models Water vaporCloudAlbedoLapse rate

23. Projected Change in Global Mean Temperature

24. Abrupt climate change and tipping point – Lesson from Earth’s climate history

25. Termination of the Younger Dryas cold event and last ice age 11,600 years ago

26. Abrupt climate change and history/politics - Collapse of Maya civilization and Chinese ancient dynasties Drought s

27. Bifurcation and tipping point

28. Examples of tipping points

29. Interactions among tipping points

30. Summary Large spread in projected temperature change comes from uncertainties in climate feedbacks Main climate feedbacks for global warming: albedo, lapse rate, water vapor, cloud, aerosol, carbon cycle Feedback strength in climate models: cloud feedback causes the largest uncertainty Past abrupt climate change Tipping points Future abrupt climate change

31. Works cited http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/earth/20100325/atlantic20100325- full.jpghttp://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/earth/20100325/atlantic20100325- full.jpg http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0315humid ity.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0315humid ity.html http://sitemaker.umich.edu/section2_group1/arctic_issues__permafros thttp://sitemaker.umich.edu/section2_group1/arctic_issues__permafros t http://www.all-creatures.org/hope/gw/02_Arctic-Antarctic.htm http://www.fedre.org/en/content/global-permafrost-zones-high- resolution-images-google-earthhttp://www.fedre.org/en/content/global-permafrost-zones-high- resolution-images-google-earth http://www.onlyzerocarbon.org/arctic_feedback.html https://www.marietta.edu/~biol/biomes/tropdry.htm http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global- Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme- Weather/Wildfires.aspxhttp://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global- Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme- Weather/Wildfires.aspx http://www.opb.org/news/blog/ecotrope/qa-how-to-reduce-wildfire- severity-even-in-a-warmer-climate/http://www.opb.org/news/blog/ecotrope/qa-how-to-reduce-wildfire- severity-even-in-a-warmer-climate/

32. Work cited http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/abrupt.html http://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but-sentiment- remains-strong/http://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but-sentiment- remains-strong/ http://nimbuseco.com/2013/01/deforestation-and-pollution-facts/ http://greenbalkans.org/category.php?language=en_EN&cat_id=63 http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=nrcs142p2_0118 47http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=nrcs142p2_0118 47 http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation- 20090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspxhttp://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation- 20090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspx http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/the_consumer_dr.html http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564-112.pdf http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is-close-to- climate-tipping-point/http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is-close-to- climate-tipping-point/ http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/opinion/mystreet-digital-anthropology/ http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png