1. Scotland’s Identity John Curtice Strathclyde University/NatCen

2. Ways of Asking Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice) Moreno Different Identities Separately

3. Forced Choice National Identity Sources: 74-97 Scottish Election Study; 99-13 Scottish Social Attitudes

4. A (Slight) Age Difference

5. Trends in Moreno National Identity

6. But No Evidence of More Recent Change Source: Ipsos MORI

7. Looking at the Two Identities Separately Source: SSA 2012

8. Dependent Variables Referendum Vote Intention (after squeeze) Independence (in/out Europe) vs. Devolution (with/without tax) vs. No Parliament SP take all decisions vs. All bar foreign vs. All domestic bar tax & welfare vs. No decisions

9. Scottish Identity Far From Sufficient

10. But Is (Almost) Necessary

11. More Recent Confirmation Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator

12. It’s Britishness That Matters More!

13. Identity Not as Powerful as The Economy

14. Only (Really) Matters When Convinced The Idea is Practical Perceived Impact of Independe nce on Economy Scottish only More Scottish EqualMore British/Brit ish only Stronger88674229 No Difference 333112 Weaker9433

15. More Devolution Helps Satisfy The Duallists (But Also Has Cross-Appeal) Scottish only More Scottish EqualMore British British only Independ ence 523217198 Devo Max 2934352026 EITHER8366523934

16. Summary Referendum would not be happening without the existence of a distinct sense of national identity. But a strong Scottish - or more importantly a weak British identity - is not a sufficient condition for supporting independence. People need to be convinced of practical efficacy of independence if they are to be persuaded to let go of their Britishness. (More devolution may be thought sufficient). Onset of referendum may have rekindled some people’s sense of being British.