1. Slides for NUOPC ESPC NAEFS ESMF

2. A NOAA, Navy, Air Force strategic partnership to improve the Nation’s weather forecast capability Vision – a national operational global prediction system with requisite high performance computing producing state of the science, highly accurate global forecasts and drive separate agency fine-scale local models to meet unique mission needs Shared development among government agencies Implementing a global atmospheric ensemble system to enhance predictive capability Accelerating the transition of new technology to civilian and DoD operational centers GOALS

3. Earth System Prediction Capability For the development and operational implementation of a national earth-system prediction capability to include both weather and short-term climate Builds on NUOPC (multi-agency) Principal Partners – DOC, DoD, DOE – Membership will encompass federal, private and academic groups Draft charter under development

4. North American Ensemble Forecast System Multi-model, multi-center ensemble –NCEP GFS high resolution deterministic –NCEP GFS based ensembles (GEFS) –CMC global ensembles Current status –NCEP 20+1+1 members per cycle, 4 cycle per day –CMC 20+1 members per cycle, twice per day –Every 6 hours, out to 16 days Products and Benefits –Bias corrected at 1*1 degree (35 variables, will be 49) –Hybrid with NCEP bias corrected GFS forecast –Combined (with adjusted) bias corrected CMC’s ensemble Probabilistic products (10%, 50%, 90%, mean, mode and spread) –Downscaled products for CONUS and Alaska (Q2FY10) –Improving the skills Plan to include FNMOC ensemble in 4QFY10 International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products 4 Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

5. Next 4 slides show impact of adding additional members and diversity (additional models) to the ensemble Each slide is the same, but arrows explain each curve as you page through –1 st curve shows performance of NCEP ensemble alone (forecasts have value out to 3.4 days) –2 nd curve shows performance of statistical correction of NCEP ensemble (value to 4.8 days) –3 rd curve show impact of adding Canadian ensemble runs (6.2 days) –4 th curve show impact of adding Navy (FNMOC) runs (6.7 days) FNMOC ensemble runs will be added to the NAEFS in 4thQ/FY10 5

6. Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 1 of 4) Raw NCEP Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d) 0.5 CRPS skill

7. Raw NCEP Stat. corr. Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d) Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d) 0.5 CRPS skill Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 2 of 4)

8. Raw NCEP Stat. corr. NAEFS Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d) Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d) Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d) 0.5 CRPS skill Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 3 of 4)

9. Raw NCEP NAEFS + FNMOC Stat. corr. NAEFS Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d) Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d) Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d) Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d) 0.5 CRPS skill Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)

10. Earth System Modeling Framework The Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) is a collection of software tools to foster interoperability, portability and code reuse in Earth Science applications It defines an architecture for composing complex, coupled modeling systems and includes data structures and utilities for developing individual models. The basic idea behind ESMF is that complicated applications should be broken up into smaller pieces, or components. NCEP’s foray into ESMF is the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

11. Benefits of the ESMF-based NEMS [NOAA Environmental Modeling System] Collaborative development within NOAA –ESRL (FIM) –GFDL (MOM4, etc) –AOML, ESRL (Hurricane) –National Ocean Service (coastal models) –ARL (Air Quality) –PMEL (Tsunami) Collaborative development with other agencies –NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office –Global Air Quality (GOCART) –Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Hydrological Science Branch –Land Information System –ESMF community (Climate, coupled systems) –Navy - FNMOC

12. Benefits of ESMF-based NEMS [NOAA Environmental Modeling System] Operational requirements: –Transparency in all operational code components –Single ESMF-based infrastructure for all operational codes (Global, Regional, Local) Atmosphere Ocean Ensembles Nesting Air quality Etc. –Common codes and data bases for utility functions Verification Fixed fields (land surface type, topography, land-sea mask, etc) Ability to incorporate software from research and operational units outside NCEP in the simplest and most flexible manner

13. Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind Waves -------------- LSM ---------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------------- Etc Physics (1,2,3) ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Etc. Dynamics (1,2) Application Driver NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) (uses standard ESMF compliant software) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…) Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL, GFDL…) Atmospheric Model Chemistry