1. Domestic Demand Victoria Roberts February 24 th 2005

2. Domestic Energy Supply Increase in demand due to natural population increase will be balanced by conservation measures

3. Energy Requirements: Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting & appliances Demand is largely determined by changes in population size, household size and resulting number of households

4. Population and household size:

5. Space heating Increase in ownership of central heating Leads to higher internal temperatures Predicted to reach saturation level by 2020 Determined by number of households

6. Water heating & Cooking Water heating: Determined by population size, follows increase in population Cooking: Balance between number of households and change in lifestyle.

7. Lighting & Appliances Largely dependent on number of households Average increase of 1.6% over past 30 years Efficiency versus increased ownership- projection difficult: when will improved efficiency start to have an effect?

8. Energy use

9. Factors limiting demand Conservation measures: Loft insulation-saturation level Cavity wall insulation Double glazing Draught proofing Hot water tank insulation-saturation level

10. No further increase in proportion of Loft insulation: Hot water tank insulation:

11. Cavity walls, double glazing, draught insulation Based on projection of number of houses in housing stock:

12. Housing stock Average of 180,000 houses built per year over past 10 years Housing replacement rate of 0.7% New homes will be ~5% more energy efficient as internal temperatures will rise Energy savings due to more energy efficient homes:

13. HOWEVER… EU Directive on the energy efficiency of buildings could improve efficiency of space heating by 22% DELight project could lower consumption for lighting by up to 43% by 2020 If apply these savings…

14. Final projected demand:

15. Assumptions: Demand: Population projections assume greatest rate of growth will be 1.75% per year, slowest rate of growth will be 0.25% Household size will continue its decline until it reaches a lowest possible value of 1.8 in 2030 Proportion of energy used for various end uses remains the same

16. Assumptions Conservation measures: Saturation level of loft and hot water tank insulation has already been reached Growth in uptake of other conservation measures follows same rate of increase as for past 20 years Small growth in production of detached dwellings is offset by increase in proportion of flats Double glazing and draught proofing reach saturation level by 2010, following trend of loft and hot water tank insulation More energy efficient home saves 4.135 x 10 -6 PJ per year

17. Final figures Total Demand (PJ) MaximumMinimumProbable 175216701757 187416901799 201817071944 217517281982 229317282028 241217232126 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

18. Fuel Mix

19. Predicted fuel mix By 2030, 75% natural gas, 20% electricity, with other solids, renewable & waste and petroleum making up the final 5%

20. Energy required by each fuel type: PJ Required CoalOther solidNatural gasElectricityRenewable & wastePetroleum 20055318123035111123 20104518127736011126 20153919140038914136 2020200144739615139 2025200150140616142 203000159542521128

21. References: www.dti.gov.uk www.statistics.co.uk www.bre.co.uk Energy use and energy efficiency in the UK up to the year 2010 Energy consumption in the UK Energy forecasting methodology An economic assessment of some energy conservation measures in housing and other buildings