1. Model For Relating PM 2.5 Federal Reference Method & Nephelometer Measurements Presented by Jenny Parikh

2. 12/6/2015 2 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Agenda What was done Value to Public How the model is developed What’s Next

3. 12/6/2015 3 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 GOAL Develop Statistical Linear regression model relating PM2.5 FRM and Nephelometers (continuous monitors)

4. 12/6/2015 4 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 WHY n FRM is used for NAAQS compliance (FILTER based) 1999-to date PM 2.5 measurement are below NAAQS Continuous Monitor data is available n Temporally resolved data : Diurnal cycles n Need to estimate PM 2.5 in real time (AQI) n Push from EPA to complete Real time network n QA TOOL

5. 12/6/2015 5 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 VALUE TO PUBLIC n Ability to represent unhealthy air conditions while it is occurring n Part 58.50 of 40CFR requires all MSAs with population of 350,000 or greater to report daily AQI

6. 12/6/2015 6 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 METHODOLOGY n Determine required environmental measurements, suitable data and data reduction n Perform exploratory data analyses Histogram Scatter plots and outliers Time series analyses n Determine the “best” model n Evaluate the ability of the model to estimate PM2.5

7. 12/6/2015 7 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Guidance Document

8. 12/6/2015 8 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Guidance document n http://www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/files/ambient/monitorstrat /aqidqorept.pdf http://www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/files/ambient/monitorstrat /aqidqorept.pdf

9. 12/6/2015 9 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Nephelometer Monitoring Sites Nephelometer Sites 2005

10. 12/6/2015 10 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 MODEL DEVELOPMENT n Eastern Sites Chewelah, Coleville, Pullman, Ritzville, Walla Walla, Kennewick, Yakima, Twisp, Moses Lake…… n Western Sites Longview, Lacey, North Bend, Yew Street, Beacon Hill, Redmond, Bellevue Goldfarb, Vancouver…

11. 12/6/2015 11 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 RESULTS: Chewelah

12. 12/6/2015 12 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Next Step n Strong FRM- CM relationship indicated it was worth considering a comparison of CM and FRM that are not collocated

13. 12/6/2015 13 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 How the E. WA model was developed n FRM and Neph Data for the sites started from 04/01 till todate, about 75 days of data  44 days where all five sites had data

14. 12/6/2015 14 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Comparison of Nephelometers

15. 12/6/2015 15 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Comparison of FRMs from all E. WA sites

16. 12/6/2015 16 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Analysis of Data n Strong CM-FRM relationship was observed n Compared CM and FRM data that are not co-located n Strong relationship indicated a possibility of developing a model using the average of the set of FRM measurements with CM measurements n This also gives measurements that are better representative of the overall region

17. 12/6/2015 17 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Colville and E. Washington Model

18. 12/6/2015 18 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Pullman and E. WA Model

19. 12/6/2015 19 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Eastern Washington Model

20. 12/6/2015 20 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Ritzville and E. Washington Model

21. 12/6/2015 21 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 WallaWalla and E.WA Model

22. 12/6/2015 22 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Models n All Eastern Sites PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.710771(logBscat)+1.325303) This model is applied to Lacrosse, Rosalia, Starbucks, Mesa) n Final NorthBend PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.892521 (log Bscat)+1.394775) n Previous North BendPM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.93537 (log Bscat)+1.424513) n Previous Beacon Hill PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.689323 (log Bscat)+1.390065) ( R 2 = 0.84) n New Beacon Hill PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.793263 (log Bscat)+1.420227) ( R 2 = 0.90) n NWAPA Model PM2.5 correlated = 10 (0.755345 (log Bscat)+1.36943) This is applied to Mt. Vernon

23. 12/6/2015 23 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 IMPLICATIONS n Valuable tool for Eastern WA – covers large geographical area with Nephelometer n Divest from PM2.5 FRM network- optimization and modification n Resource allocations Workforce demands Monitor costs

24. 12/6/2015 24 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 WHAT’S NEXT n Refine and update with additional data for Western Washington Model Quarterly / Seasonal basis n Additional sites e.g; Stevenson (Bonneville, Mt. Zion, Wishram), Leavenworth

25. 12/6/2015 25 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Nephelometer Monitoring Sites Nephelometer Sites w/correlated PM2.5 Nephelometer Sites 2005

26. 12/6/2015 26 EPA AQI Conf. 2/3-5/02 Nephelometer/Correlated PM 2.5 n Most of our nephelometer site data has been analyzed to create a correlation to PM 2.5. n Those sites with a PM 2.5 correlation are shown on the site operators’ page https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Site/ https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Site AND the public page as NPM2.5 https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Public/aqn.shtml https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/aqp/Public/aqn.shtml