1. Turnout (VEP) increased substantially in 2004  2004:59.6%  1972-2000 average 55.8%  1968 61.9%  In 16 BG states65.3%  In 16 BG states (2000)57.6%

2. Bush’s margin of victory was unusually small for second term winner Since 1828, eleven U.S. incumbent presidents have been reelected. Five presidents who had been “elevated” to the presidency have won their own second term. Until 2004, all but Harry Truman had won by at least 6.0% Harry S. Truman (1948) 4.5% George W. Bush (2004)2.9%  Bush’s popular vote margin was the narrowest since 1828.  Bush’s electoral vote margin (6.9%) was the second lowest “second term” margin since 1804.

3. Two thirds of the Republican net gains in the House were due to the Texas redistricting Rep/Dem House shares 2002227/205/1 2004233/201/1  Republican net gain: +6  Republican net gain  in Texas+4  Republican net gain outside of Texas+2

4. Democrats held their own or gained ground in state races  Governorships RepDem 20022822 20042822  State legislative seats 2002 Republican margin: 62 2004 Republican margin: 0  Partisan control of state legislatures RepDemDivided 2002211711 2004201910 *Nebraska is non-partisan)

5. Bush strongholds Evangelical Prot.77% Wealthy voters63% White men62% Rural voters59% Southern voters 58% Men55% White women55% Lower MC voters53% Married women55% Catholics52%

6. Kerry strengths African Americans88% minority vote70% urban (500,000+) voters60% white male unionists60% Asian Americans 58% under 30 years old55% Post-grads55% Latinos/Hispanics54%??

7. Red states/blue states

8. Red states/blue states adjusted for state population

9. Red counties/blue counties

10. Red counties/blue counties adjusted for population

11. Red counties/blue counties adjusted for Bush/Kerry margin proportions and total population