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Published byJanel Tate Modified over 9 years ago
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Congress and 2008
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Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The Retirement Advantage The Partisan Advantage
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The Democratic Fundraising Advantage
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Interest Group spending What they Can Do Where they Spent
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501’s and 527’s What they are Where they Spent
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THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE ADVANTAGE Retirements and Strategic challengers
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Candidate Quality We Vote For members who we trust Political Amateurs? What is a quality Challenger?
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Strategic Challengers Run when they are advantaged by the Opportunities What is Involved
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The Incumbent Calculus LOSE< RETIRE< WIN
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Strategic Politicians and 2008 The Democrats were willing to Run Republicans stayed home, or Retired
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Attracting Good Challengers The GOP cannot find good challengers The Democrats did –In the House –In the Senate
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Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?
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Retirements in the House 3 Special Elections in 2007 set the stage 23 Retirements and 29 open House seats for the GOP to Defend 7 open seats for the Democrats
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Retirements in the Senate ZERO Democrats retired in 2008 5 Republicans –2 Safe States –Colorado, New Mexico, and Virgina
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Why Retire or Stay Why So many GOP Retirements Why So Many Democrats did not
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The Democratic Partisan Advantage (National Factors as Well)
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Wave Elections They usually correct themselves 2006 and 2008 featured Democratic Tides –Unpopular Bush Presidency –Macro Factors
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Contextual Factors A Sour Mood in the electorate 90% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track Consumer Confidence was at an all time low
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A Poor Economy
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The Bush Legacy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs
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The Republican Brand A Tarnished Image Responsibility without Power Scandal Forced to go on local factors in a national election
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A Shift in Partisan Loyalty Democrats grew with young voters Independents leaned Democratic Other Groups Went Democratic Key States went Democratic
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The House Results
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Fewer Safe GOP Seats GOP Gerrymandering Didn’t Work Congress is Unpopular
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The Results 435 Up for Grabs Democrats Gain 23 House Seats The GOP is driven From New England
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The House Results
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Where the Democrats Won Defeating Vulnerable Republicans Winning in Districts where Bush Did Poorly Winning the Open Seats
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The Senate
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The Dynamics The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend –22 Republican Seats –12 Democratic Seats –5 open GOP Seats A Weak Republican Class
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The Results
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Why The Democrats Won Open Seats National Tides Red Senators in Blue States Not as big as it could have been
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The Obama Effect In Red States –Net loss of 1 House Seat –1 senate Seat In the Flipped states –12 House Seats –4 Senate Seats In the Blue States –10 House Seats –3 Senate Seats
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