1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 27, 2013 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of central and northern India, Burma, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal especially over parts of southeastern China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is relatively somewhat similar to the 90-day pattern. Central and Northern India continues to receive above normal monsoon rainfall. Far southeastern coastal China is still recovering from the landing of Super Typhoon Utor in previous week.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During this past week, the monsoon rains have been deficient over large parts of India and somewhat heavy over southeastern China, especially from the impact of typhoon Trami north of Fujian province in eastern coastal China. As of 27 th of August (since 1 st of June), the India Met. Dept. (IMD) has announced that the all India monsoon rainfall index measure is 11% above long term mean.

6. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. 7 Atmospheric Circulation

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal over much of central and northern India, Burma, Indonesia and Philippines, but below normal especially over parts of southeastern China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern over monsoon Asia is relatively somewhat similar to the 90-day pattern. Central and Northern India continues to receive above normal monsoon rainfall. During this past week, the monsoon rains have been deficient over large parts of India and somewhat heavy over southeastern China, especially from the impact of typhoon Trami north of Fujian province in eastern coastal China. As of 27 th of August (since 1 st of June), the India Met. Dept. (IMD) has announced that the all India monsoon rainfall index measure is 11% above long term mean. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts generally below rainfall over large parts of India except central India and some parts of southern India. Excess rain is also forecast over southern coastal China, a region already battered by super typhoon Utor in the middle of August.

10. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. 12 Climatology