1. PRE-ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS ESTABLISHING A METHODOLOGY FOR PERFORMING COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ITS INVESTMENTS Finn Krenk Danish Road Directorate

2. The need for pre-assessments DRD is expected to justify the investment in ITS  C/B DRD must prioritize different ITS projects - and ITS projects against traditional measures A uniform and consistent methodology is required We need to know the effects of different measures We want to increase the knowledge of effects, benefits and costs of ITS in Denmark

3. Scope and background Scope: To be able to carry out C/B analyses for ITS To establish consensus about a common method Background: A general framework for C/B-analyses – MoT Danish and international studies of costs and benefits of ITS

4. Framework for C/B analyses Formulate the problem and set up solutions Describe reference situation and selected solutions Calculate effects in “quantities” Calculate value of the effects Calculate the net present value, internal interest and benefit/cost ratio Describe verbally the not quantified effects Arrange the results in a form

5. Reference situation Reference situation = ”do nothing scenario” Costs and benefits: With project - without project Problems might arise if: ITS project in connection with a road work ITS project is a part of a new constructed road A traffic information service is add-on to existing services A TMS is add-on to existing TMS’s

6. Traffic management and effects The most important types of traffic management systems are selected Fact sheets are worked out for these Guidance are given on which effects should be included in the C/B analysis The study describes a number of methods to calculate the effects of ITS applications

7. Ex.: Fact sheet for Variable speed harmonisation Type of effectSize AccidentsReduction in number of accidents with personal injuries on 15-25%. Reduction in number of accidents on 25-28% (1). Reduction in number of accidents on motorways up to 30% Time gainAverage speed reduction on 5-10 km/h on motorways, and totally time gain as a result of lesser accidents Pollution- Potential indicators: - Bad traffic flow. - Frequent queues. - Many rear end collisions. - Bad sight. - Many drivers without local knowledge. - Special needs, e.g. road works, special weather conditions, accidents, etc.

8. Relevance of the parameters 0 = Not relevant 1 = Less relevant 2 = Relevant 3 = Very relevant

9. Parameters in the C/B analysis Costs User effects Other effects External effects

10. The value og being informed The drivers find it of great value to be informed! Traffic information is a big part of ITS systems It is important to quantify the drivers value of being informed e.g. by using: - Revealed preference studies - Stated preference studies Study from TØI: In Oslo ½ €/trip DRD Probably best to try different methods

11. Results for Queuewarning Nutidsværdi Markedspriser (mio kr.) Offentlige omkostninger Etableringsomkostninger -3,86 Restværdi - Driftsomkostninger -3,74 Samlet -7,60 Brugereffekter Tid 3,85 Kørselsomk. - Trafikinformation - Samlet 3,85 Eksterne effekter Uheld 5,50 Andre - Samlet 5,50 Øvrige konsekvenser: Afgifter 0 Skatteforvridning -1,43 Samlet -1,43 Samlet nettonutidsværdi: 0,31 Intern rente (%) 7,8 B/C - faktor 1,04

12. Conclusion The general methodology guidelines outlined by the Ministry of Transport and Energy can be applied for evaluating ITS investments There is a lack of knowledge of the effectiveness of ITS investments There is great uncertainty regarding how drivers valuate traffic

13. Recommendations for further work Monitor international experiences regarding effects and C/B analyses Work out evaluation of Danish ITS projects Provide data regarding how accidents/incidents effect travelling time Analyze how road users value traffic information and services Update the method and get it available for the road authorities