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Hale & Tempest The Sustainability of the Generics Industry – rethinking the future Dr. Brian W Tempest www.briantempest.com World Generics Congress, London, UK 29 February 2012
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Hale & Tempest Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia and India where he has lived for the last decade. Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories since 1995 holding the position of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until 2008 when he retired. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into India. Brian has also worked for Glaxo as Regional Director Far East and Regional Director Middle East & Africa from 1985 to 1992. Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 41 years and has managed Healthcare businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Australasia, China, Japan and India. He has also led many sessions at Investor Meetings held around the world. He is now Independent Chairman of Religare Capital Markets PLC, a Non Executive Director of Fortis Healthcare the leading Asian Healthcare Company, a Non Executive Director of SRL the largest Indian Diagnostic Company and a Non Executive Director of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals. He is a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel and is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Generic Medicines. Brian speaks at global conferences and more information on these presentations can be found on his website www.briantempest.com. Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemistry from Lancaster University in 1971 and in 2009 he became Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Lancaster University Management School, UK. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a Chartered Chemist. He is now Chairman and Senior Partner of Hale & Tempest Co Ltd
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Hale & Tempest Healthcare Pressures Forever - 2050
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Hale & Tempest Healthcare will explode further in Asia
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Hale & Tempest Consolidation in Generics 2003 - 2010
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Hale & Tempest Structural Changes - Big Pharma
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Hale & Tempest Fewer New Molecules Approved
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Hale & Tempest Only 21 2010 FDA New Drug Approvals Source: Fiercebiotech 22 Jan 2011
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Hale & Tempest Approvals & Reimbursements Source: Pharmatimes UK August 2011
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Hale & Tempest US 2010 False Claims Fines Chemistry World Jan 2011 2011 False Claims Fines - Pfizer $2.3b, Lilly $1.4b, J&J $1.b
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Hale & Tempest Top Five US Industries for layoffs in 09/10 Source Challenger, Gray & Christmas
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Hale & Tempest Merck – No 1 Layoffs in 2011 source FiercePharma
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Hale & Tempest Big Pharma Strategies Share repurchase - AZ, Pfizer, Sanofi Aventis Shedding businesses – Pfizer $1.9b nutrition, $3.6b animal health, £2.4b Capsugel Eye Care - Novartis & Alcon Consumer Healthcare – Sanofi Aventis, GSK OTC – P&G with Teva DPI Inhaler – Pfizer & Mylan Generics – Pfizer, Sanofi Aventis, AZ Pharmemerging – GSK, Abbott, Daichi Sankyo
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Hale & Tempest M&A Deals in Pharmemerging Markets Source: Company Filings, Mape Securities
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Hale & Tempest Structural Changes - Generic Companies
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Hale & Tempest Pricing Pressures Source: Watson
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Hale & Tempest Mylan won’t follow “irrational behavior” Source : Generics Bulletin 5 August 2011
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Hale & Tempest India Pharma Stock has consistently outperformed Global Peers Bloomberg
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Hale & Tempest Emerging Market Equities in last 12m Source: 30 Jan 2012 Business Standard
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Hale & Tempest Rising Competition Source: JM Financials 24 August 2011, Deutche Bank 8 July 2011 With generic Lotrel higher strengths there was an unexpected excessive number of generics approved after the exclusive period ended Increased competitive activity with para 4 filings. Multiple players for small opportunities. Small new Indian players in para 4 - Macleods for Lipitor, Hetero for Nexium
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Hale & Tempest Top 25 Global Generic Companies Source: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011
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Hale & Tempest Next 24 Global Generic Companies Source: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011
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Hale & Tempest USA Generics Filings Source: Deutsche bank July 2010
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Hale & Tempest Pending ANDAs source: Deutsche Bank Jan 2012
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Hale & Tempest US Litigation Risks are Substantial Patent Challenges on rise - 65 FTFs in 2009 Generic success rate at 48% (76% with deals) 3 courts hold 69%, with 36% success e.g. NJ 4 courts never ruled against generics e.g. NY At Risk launches on the rise - 6 in 2009 Teva has 12 of the 28 At Risk launches 2002/9 Source RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010 Recent At Risk launch damages include – Apotex $0.3b, Sun $0.9b, Teva $1b+ Famvir Teva rethinking At Risk strategy
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Hale & Tempest China Pharma Industry Capex Plans Source: Stravencom
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Hale & Tempest India Pharma Industry Capex Plans Source: MAPE
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Hale & Tempest FDA DMFs from China 3Q 2011
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Hale & Tempest Indian Companies Changing Hands Source Mint Research December 13 2011
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Hale & Tempest Frost & Sullivan forecast the Global Generic Market at $231b in 2017 FiercePharma
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Hale & Tempest 70% of Top products will be Biologic-2016 Source: Sandoz EGA Conference 2011
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Hale & Tempest Biosimilar Patent Expiries $17b in 2015 Source: Sandoz
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Hale & Tempest Biosimilar Patent Expires $64b in 2015 Source: IMS
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Hale & Tempest Number of mABs entering the clinic annually rose to 54 in 2008 Source: Tufts
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Hale & Tempest How much is a Biosimilar worth? Source: Datamonitor
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Hale & Tempest Recent Biosimilar Deals Cipla & Biomab, China $165m 12 products Richter & Stada – mABs Celltrion, Korea & Hospira, Egis, Hikma, BB Biocon & Mylan, USA Teva & Lonza, EU Biocon Idec & Samsung, Japan Watson & Amgen, USA Fuji Film & Kyowa Hakko Kirin Baxter & Momenta, USA Actavis & Bioton,Poland Pfizer & Hisun, China
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Hale & Tempest A New World Order in Generics is Coming
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Hale & Tempest Thank You brian.tempest@clara.co.uk www.briantempest.com
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