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2006 RESULTS AND ANALYST PRESENTATION. INTRODUCTION 2006 Results2006 Results Current PositionCurrent Position Strategic PlanStrategic Plan ConclusionConclusion.

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Presentation on theme: "2006 RESULTS AND ANALYST PRESENTATION. INTRODUCTION 2006 Results2006 Results Current PositionCurrent Position Strategic PlanStrategic Plan ConclusionConclusion."— Presentation transcript:

1 2006 RESULTS AND ANALYST PRESENTATION

2 INTRODUCTION 2006 Results2006 Results Current PositionCurrent Position Strategic PlanStrategic Plan ConclusionConclusion AnnexuresAnnexures –A : Balance Sheets –B : Market Value of Fleet –C : Fleet Summary –D : Impact of Rand / USD Exchange Rate –E : Shipping Market Report

3 2006 RESULTS

4 EARNINGS FROM SHIPS Bulk CarriersTankersContainer Ships Total 2006 Total 2005 HandysizePanamaxCapesizeChemicalMid-Range Product Daily Income ($/day)13 90020 80032 40014 00018 90013 50017 80019 500 Daily Cost ($/day)7 7009 10020 80011 00014 50010 30011 20010 700 Average No. of ships18.72.05.63.45.71.336.735.7 Profit Contribution$41 m$9 m$24 m$4 m$9 m$2 m$89 m$114 m International Operations$75 m$105 m SA Based Operations$14 m$9 m Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan Owned & Long Term Chartered

5 INCOME STATEMENT 2006 2005GrowthComments Shipping Services Earnings from ships ($ million)74.8105.1Lower shipping markets Other shipping income5.10.6Favourable contracts Trading profits from ship sales ($ million)35.39.8 Overheads / Forex profit / Other interest ($ million)7.1(3.5)Increased interest income Profit from international operations ($ million)122.3112.09.2% Profit from international operations (R million)82971416.1% Profit from SA based operations81 91079514.5% Trading, Freight and Financial Services Trading Services2522 Freight Services12766 Financial Services156Bank only 1679477.7%H2 growth = 99% Group Overheads / Pref Dividends / STC / Disposal Adjustment (69)(38) Marriott profit in 2005 Mainly pref dividends Profit Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders1 00885118.4%19.2% growth in HEPS Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

6 See Annexure A for split between International Shipping & SA based Shipping, Trading, Freight & Financial Services See Annexure B for detail on revaluation of fleet to market value 2006 Rm 2005 Rm Comments Fixed Assets / Investments7 4015 679R1.3 b increase in fleet value Bank Loans, Advances and Liquid Assets680-Acquisition of 100% of Grindrod Bank Current Assets2 2301 571Trading Services – high December volumes + high commodity prices Acquisitions Total Assets10 3117 250 Equity7 1665 108R250 m Preference shares issued Exchange rate movement (11% depreciation) Increase in profits and fleet value Share Buy Back (4% at avg price of R12.22) Net Debt526642Ship Sales (R650 m) / Capex (R1 068 m) Increase in cash resources Bank Deposits711-Acquisition of 100% of Grindrod Bank Other Liabilities1 9081 500Trading volumes / acquisitions Total Equity & Liabilities10 3117 250 Gearing - Book Value - Fleet at Market Value 0.19:1 0.07:1 0.33:1 0.13:1 BALANCE SHEET Including Revaluation of Fleet to Market Value Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

7 KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS Lower due to growth in book value of equity Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan CEPS CAGR 63% HEPS CAGR 60%

8 KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan CAGR = 60%

9 CURRENT POSITION

10 Substantial growth over last seven years Strong balance sheet with little gearing –Target Debt : Equity = 1:1 –In theory could spend R 3 billion per annum over next 3 years –Will spend judiciously on ships and freight services Valuable fleet of ships + well diversified Firm shipping markets / prices CURRENT POSITION Smooth handover from Ivan Clark Fleet set to grow by 54% - Contracted at favourable prices Good contracted income base Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan Management team restructured Non-shipping business positioned for growth

11 SHIPPING MARKETS Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan Bulk Carrier - New building prices Bulk Carrier – 1-year time charter rates Bulk Carrier – 2 nd hand prices (5-yr old)

12 SHIPPING MARKETS Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

13 STRATEGIC PLAN

14 Drybulk -Continued growth in cargo movement – China still a big driver -Newbuildings not excessive compared to demand growth (Growth in coal / iron ore movements will offset fleet growth) -Increased scrapping forecast -Handysize market has very good fundamentals – Declining fleet / continued requirement for these ships to service ports with restrictions Tankers -Continued growth in demand – Refining capacity constraints, change in trade patterns, continued consumer demand -Legislative requirements have impact on supply -However, still possible oversupply of larger product tankers from big order book -Small product and chemical tanker markets have more favourable outlook -High stainless steel prices -Limited newbuildings / Current fleet is old -Demand from regional trades Market Outlook to 2010 SHIPPING SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

15 Restructure of operations Continued focus on areas of expertise  Bulk Carriers  Handysize  Panamax  Capesize  Tankers  Mid Range Product  Small Product  Small Chemical  Container Ships  Feeder Portfolio shift towards small product and chemical tankers Longer term contract cover Key Strategic Initiatives SHIPPING SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

16 Contracted Out at 31/12/2006 Bulk CarriersTankersContainer Ships Bunker Barges Total HandysizePanamaxCapesizeChemicalMid Range Small 2007Number (Average) 11.62.03.72.74.3---24.3 Revenue (US$/day) 15 00020 80033 50013 10018 700--- 2008Number (Average) 3.52.03.41.12.9 - - - 12.9 Revenue (US$/day) 16 40020 70036 10022 10021 200 - - - 23 900 2009Number (Average) 0.72.02.3 - 1.3 - - - 6.3 Revenue (US$/day) 17 90020 70033 600 - 21 000 - - - 25 200 CONTRACTED EARNINGS Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan 36% 54% 74% - - 26.8 18.9 2009 84.257.4 2007 40.2 2008 % of fleet fixed out by dwt Ship Sales US$m TOTAL US$m Charters US$m Contracted Profits (US$m)

17 Lock in value through ship sales - Value > PV of expected earnings - Better opportunities in other sectors Expand fleet at the right time in the right sectors - Underinvested sectors - Take advantage of anticipated trading pattern changes - Against medium / long term contract International listing / Unbundling -Investigation ongoing -Realize hidden value in shipping and SA based operations -Will allow for international comparison -Broader shareholder base and analyst coverage -Shareholder approval will be required Key Strategic Initiatives (continued) SHIPPING SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

18 TRADING SERVICES Current Operations –Atlas Trading & Shipping – soft commodities –Oreport (50%) – Mineral commodities –Cocket Marine (50%) – Bunkers (fuel for ships) Grow through new markets / acquisitions Improve efficiency through utilization of Group shipping and logistics infrastructure TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

19 FREIGHT SERVICES Key Drivers –Export / Import trade volumes –Domestic growth –SA logistics hub for regional growth –Infrastructural spend (rail, terminals, ports, roads, etc) Positioning for Growth –Staffing expertise –Development of existing terminal facilities –Acquisition of assets (locomotives, trucks, materials handling equipment) –Acquisition of complimentary business from within existing operations TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

20 FREIGHT SERVICES – STRATEGY Restructure and consolidation of freight services business into focused operating divisions Terminals - develop Maputo (R139m capex approved) - develop Richards Bay (R168m capex approved) - develop Maydon Wharf Facilities (R 59m capex approved) Intermodal (container logistics) - consolidate, then grow Ports - develop PPP opportunities in Southern Africa TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

21 FREIGHT SERVICES – STRATEGY (continued) Rail - acquire additional locomotives and rolling stock -enhance rail integration capability Logistics - acquire strategic businesses - buy-up in existing JV’s -enhance Lead Logistic Provider capability Seafreight -grow business through expanded trading scope and enhanced feeder offering Ships agency - expand agency network TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

22 FINANCIAL SERVICES TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan Grindrod Bank Why Grindrod Bank? -Obtain control -Value proposition – Discount to NAV Additional capital injected (doubled to R250m / strong balance sheet) Investment bank focused on niche areas -Deposit taking -Property sector lending and advisory -Corporate and commercial asset based financing and structuring -Corporate finance - Private client wealth management - Structured investment products

23 FINANCIAL SERVICES TRADING, FREIGHT & FINANCIAL SERVICES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan Alignment with Group strategy - Property requirements - Expand services to Group clients (property finance, receivables finance and trade finance) - Creation of investment products to efficiently fund Group assets / expansion Acquisition / development of fee generating businesses Create offshore private client wealth management capability Net-1 initiative for card based wage payments Grindrod Bank - Strategy

24 BEE – 18% of Grindrod Bank is being sold to BEE – Consolidating and expanding group’s current BEE businesses – Continued focus on addressing other BEE scorecard items OTHER STRATEGIC INITIATIVES Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

25 CONCLUSION

26 Sound prospects: –Shipping Long term charter rates / ship prices indicate expectation of a firm shipping market in the medium term Contracted growth in fleet (54% - detail in Annexure C) Contracted earnings (2007 = 74%; 2008 =54%; 2009 = 36%) Expectation of gradual weakening of Rand (10c move = estimated R20m Income Statement impact – Annexure D) –Trading, Freight and Financial Services well positioned for growth –Capacity to invest in expansion Consolidating and extracting value from existing businesses Focus on expanding existing facilities to capitalise on SA growth Successful, experienced management team CONCLUSION Conclusion2006 ResultsCurrent PositionStrategic Plan

27 ANNEXURES

28 ANNEXURE A BALANCE SHEETS (Including Fleet at Market Value) 2006 Rm International Shipping SA Shipping and Trading, Freight & Financial Services Group Fixed Assets / Investments5 6881 7137 401 Bank loans, advances & liquid assets-680 Current Assets5601 6702 230 Total Assets6 2484 06310 311 Equity6 1661 0007 166 Net Debt(155)681526 Bank Deposits-711 Other Liabilities2371 6711 908 Total Equity & Liabilities6 2484 06310 311 Gearing-2.5%68.1%7.3%

29 MARKET VALUE OF FLEET Rm Excess of market value over book 1 029 value of owned ships Value of long term charters 2 452 Value of ship purchase options on 862 chartered ships 4 343 Indicative values obtained in consultation with reputable ship brokers Differential between Grindrod charter rate and current rate to replace charter i.e. does not include expected profit PV @ 8% (USD WACC) converted at closing exchange rate Projected value of ship at end of charter compared to option strike price PV @ 8% (USD WACC) ANNEXURE B The group valuation should consist of: 1.the analyst’s valuation of Grindrod’s SA based operations 2.a valuation of the international shipping operation taking into account the fleet value, comparison to peers and the analysts estimation of the group’s ability to extract value from its shipping fleet

30 Contracted In at 31/12/2006 Bulk CarriersTankersContainer Ships Bunker Barges Total HandysizePanamaxCapesizeChemicalMid Range Small 2007Number19.82.05.14.46.51--38.8 Cost (US$/day) 7 9009 20020 80011 40014 7009 000--11 200 2008Number20.72.04.44.07.43.1-2.043.6 Cost (US$/day) 8 0009 20019 30014 600 9 800- - 10 900 2009Number20.62.03.04.08.06.2-2.045.8 Cost (US$/day) 8 0009 20021 40014 60014 70010 900- - 11 100 Net Number of Ships to Deliver 20072-1-1---4 20081--3-13-24 2009---14--4 Fleet at end of 200920234108-249 ANNEXURE C

31 IMPACT OF RAND / USD EXCHANGE RATE - 10C MOVE Income Statement Translation Adjustment on $75 m = R 7.5 m Average Rate impact on + $125 m* = R 12.5 m R 20.0 m Balance Sheet Translation Adjustment on + $315 m* = R 31.5 m * Based on 2006 numbers ANNEXURE D


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