1. Determination of initial conditions for dam erosion due to overtopping and possible integration into a probabilistic design concept Dr.-Ing. K. Broich University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich

2. 1.Initial conditions 2.Case study 3.Monte Carlo simulation

3. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich t dH/dt dz/dt Q Initial perioddepletion

4. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich 1.Flood wave 2.Initial breach 3.Initial water depth 4.Outlet 5.Overtopping 6.Dam coverage

5. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich

6. Proposal : Safety factor for Overtoping failure of earthen dams = Scaling factor on design flood wave needed to start erosion

7. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich 1.Initial conditions 2.Case study 3.Monte Carlo simulation

8. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich Test case : 1.Calculation with scaled design flood wave HQ1000 and initial water depth at flood water level 2.Calculation with unscaled PMF flood wave and initial water depth at dam crest

9. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich V H

12. 1.Initial conditions 2.Case study 3.Monte Carlo simulation

13. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich

14. Load variables for overtopping Failure mode Flood wave *) Initial water depth *) bivariate variable -> volume

15. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich (Hable,2001)

16. University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich The probabilistic method using a Monte Carlo simulation (Hable, 2001) can be extended to calculate the probability of an overtopping failure. The failure condition has to be substituted by the mentioned „CIRIA-condition“.