1. Post Election Vote Auditing
Fritz Scheuren
University of Chicago

2. If you did not check it, then it did go wrong!
Murphy’s Corollary
If you did not check it, then it did go wrong!

3. Outline of Remarks Systems Thinking Sample Vote Verification
Forensic Statistical Additions
Exit Polls
Better Together

4. Systems Thinking Appreciation of Complexity No Single System Owner
Political Party Roles
Media Roles
Voters’ Trust and Participation

5. Proactive Response Needed
Benchmarking and Sharing What Works

6. and Voter Surveys Trained Pollworker Tested Ballot Certified Equipment
Audited Votes
and
Voter Surveys
Trustworthy
Voting System
Verified
Identity
Educated
Voter
Secured
Tabulation
Ishikawa (Fishbone) Diagram

7. Sample Vote Verification
Key to Accountability
Transparency and Randomness
Rules of Evidence (Florida?)
Build A Body of Practice

8. Forensic Statistical Additions?
Exploring Official Results for anomalies
Confirming Outliers and Inliers
Linking Present to Past Patterns
Developing Lessons Learned Data Bases, Persisting

9. Ohio Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs
Ohio Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. The Total (Trending )
Cuyahoga
Franklin
Hamilton

10. Cuyahoga Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. the Total (Grouping Precincts )

11. Exit Polls Warren Mitofsky Not a Substitute for Sample Audits
A Weak Fitness for Use Standard
Badly Misunderstood, Redirect and Replace

13. More on Refusal Versus Fraud Alternative – 2000 v. 2004
Are Precincts with Gaps Different?
Data Does not Support this!
Actual Results Are Similar not Different
Scatterplot Shows Rough Similarity
Distributions Virtually Identical
Mitofsky “Bias in Refusals” Hypothesis Supported Instead

14. Still More on Predictive Value of Exit Poll v. Actual Results
Another Look at Gap over time
2004 Exit Poll v Actual Gap
Versus Change
Fraud Hypothesis would Predict
Gap is Correlated to Change
Correlation only 0.03 However

16. Better Together Cooperation Already High Among Election Officials
Bring in Skilled Outsiders, Statisticians. Computer Specialists, …, As You Have
Include and Inform Critics
Make Accountability Evident

17. Media and Marketing Approach Media Ahead of Time
Seize this Timely Moment
Stress New Tools, Learning Style
Conduct Demonstration Sample Audits and Get the Word Out

18. National Election Scorecard
National Voter (Customer) Survey
Build on 2006 Ohio Proof of Concept
Put “Horror Stories” in Perspective

19. Fully Auditable Election
Prepare prior data ahead of time, so analysis can be real-time
Continue to use Exit Polls but adjusting for the bias in them, if possible.

20. More Examples
Create and train election officials in new process recording and Sample Vote Verification Standards
Make sure software is fully tested and as close to tamper proof as possible

21. Many Thanks