1. Setting the Stage Mostly descriptive chapter, ending with the situation at the beginning of the campaign. Summary of the outcome of the previous election. Time-series analysis of the evolution of vote intentions up to the beginning of the election, for each of the three provinces. Focus on similarities/differences across provinces, regions, constituencies.

2. Election Results: 2011 British ColumbiaOntarioQuebec % Votes/N seats Conservative45.6/2144.4/7316.5/5 NDP32.5/1225.6/2242.9/59 Liberal13.4/225.3/1114.2/7 Bloc Québécois 23.4/4 Green Party7.7/13.8/02.1/0 Others0.6/00.9/00.8/0 Table 1

3. Variation across Provinces, Regions, and Constituencies Provincial VariationRegional VariationLocal Variation Conservative16.09.18.6 NDP7.96.29.7 Liberal6.57.36.7 Green Party2.51.42.3 Table 2

4. Variation across Provinces and Constituencies Provincial VariationLocal Variation Conservative16.011.8 NDP7.911.5 Liberal6.510.3 Green Party2.53.2 Table 3