1. Extrasolar Planets The Next Decade Dante Minniti, Católica Steve Vogt, UC Santa Cruz Chris Tinney, UNSW Pamela Arriagada, Católica The discovery of extrasolar planets in the past decade was one of the most remarkable achievements of the century, and the culmination of centuries of speculation. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Review of Astrophysics

2. ~45,000 parsecs 50 parsecs 10,000 parsecs 1000 parsecs

4. 16 Cygni B Not sinusoidal

6. Planet Mass Distribution Fit Excludes 1 st bin. Detection Limit: ~ 0.2 M JUP @ 1 AU Five Neptunes: Gl 436 Gl 436 55 Cnc d 55 Cnc d  Ara  Ara HD 190360 HD 190360 Gliese 581 Gliese 581 Butler et al. Butler et al. McArthur et al. McArthur et al. Santos et al. Santos et al.

7. Planet – Metallicity Correlation Abundance Analysis of 1000 stars on planet search. 2 P planet ~ ( N Fe / N H ) Previous Evidence: G.Gonzales, N.Santos Fischer & Valenti 2005 Metallicity Models: Ida & Lin Ida & Lin Kacper Kornet Kacper Kornet et al. et al.

8. Doppler Measurements Orbit: P = 2.876 d K = 41.3 m/s Circular M = 0.343 M JUP = 1.15 M SAT = 1.15 M SAT

9. Photometry: Three Transits 3.0 millimag -> A PL = 0.0028 A star R PL = 0.053 R Star G. Henry

10. Density & Interior R = 0.88 R SAT R = 0.88 R SAT M = 1.145 M SAT M = 1.145 M SAT   SAT R ~ M -1/3 (degeneracy) R ~ M +1/3 (Coulomb, rock) 10% errors)  = 1.69  Sat More Rock

11. Radius vs Mass Measured for Transiting Planets Mass (M JUP ) Radius (R JUP )

13. The Next Decade: 3 m/s versus 1 m/s 1 m/s 3 m/s Jupiter analog is 10-sigma detection Uncertainty of eccentricity is +/-0.02 Saturn-mass at 5 AU is a 4-sigma detection Super-Earths detectable in 4-day orbits Detection sensitivity similar/better than SIM Minimal (3-sigma) detection of Jupiter analog Eccentricity of Jupiter analog is uncertain (+/-0.2) Non-detection of Saturn-mass at 5 AU Obstacles to 1 m/s Stellar oscillations Photons Stellar granulation Systematic Errors Stellar rotation

14. P-modes in Solar-type stars Amp ~ 1.5 m/s Per = 5 min - Seismology - Seismology -Noise: Avg over Avg over P-modes ! P-modes ! Alpha Cen A (G2 V)

15. K dwarfs: 1 meter/sec Acoustic p-modes: Amp < 1 m/s Alpha Cen B (K0V)

16. Doppler Precision

17. 10 Earth-Masses P = 50 day Single telescope Aliasing 1 day Obs.

18. 5 Earth-Masses P = 50 day 5 Earth-Masses P = 50 day Single telescope

19. 1 Earth-Mass P = 4.2 d M star = 0.5 M O

20. 1 m/s: Long Data Strings APF AAT USNO funded 2.4-m dedicated planet finder 48 continous nights Jan 10, 2007 Keck 10 continous nights

25. 1 m/s: Long View TPF SIM 1.2-to-2 billion $ 150 stars 2020? 5-to-?? billion $ ? Stars 2040? 8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW?

26. 1 m/s: Long View 8-m 0.1 billion $ 1,000 stars NOW? Every Saturn mass planet out to 9 AU Every Neptune mass planet out to 1 AU Super-Earths out to 0.3 AU Earth-mass planets out to 0.1 AU Solar System analogs Habitable planets