1. Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the North Sea Andrew Kenny (CEFAS, UK) ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

2. Outline IEA Concepts and Approaches (2 slides) Ecosystem Variability – North Sea case study (18 slides) Policy & Management Relevance (3 slides) 1/ 1 Introduction ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

3. The flow of information required in an adaptive integrated management system to conserve the marine environment. ICES SGEAM 2000 report. IEA: Process & Products 1/ 2 Concepts & Approaches ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

4. Data Driven! Integrated analysis of empirical data…patterns & causes of ecosystem change Policy Driven! Impact Assessment Matrices… immediate policy relevance IEA : Approaches: Both part of the same solution! ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 2/ 2 Concepts & Approaches

5. ICES “North Sea Integrated Ecosystem Assessment” (1983 – 2009) 1/ 18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 Data Driven…..! Kenny et al. 2009. An integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of human pressures and environmental forcing on the status of Large Marine Ecosystems. PiO, 81, 1-4, 132-148.

6. North Sea Monitoring Data 8,433,120 spatially & temporally explicit ecosystem observations (1983-2009) Abiotic, Biotic State/Pressure variables representing 5 trophic levels…… ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 2/18 Ecosystem Variability 3 Years of effort, but…..

7. Online Data Interrogation Tools ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 5/18 Ecosystem Variability www.Emecodata.nethttp://www.ices.dk/marineworld/fishmap/ices Explore patterns of ecosystem variability – the big picture!

8. Which components Data sourceData itemsDates Time unit Space unit Notes SAHFOS (CPR)Plankton, Chl 1948 – 2009 Monthly ICES rectangle Full taxonomy and ICES rectangles from WinCPR ICES Oceanography Salinity, Temp, Nutrients 1973 – 2009 Monthly ICES rectangle Also earlier years. Includes nutrients, Chl, oxygen ICES/Defra/FRS (Fishstat) Fish landings by species and effort by fleet 1970 – 2009 Annual ICES rectangle Commercial demersal and pelagic species JNCC/ESASSea Birds 1980- 2004 Annual ICES rectangle ICES Fish Stock Assessment 1960 – 2009 Annual ICES rectangle Pelagic and demersal fish lengths. ES Fish sp. >100 individual state/pressure variables ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 3/18 Ecosystem Variability

9. The need for Gridded Data Time-Series Analysis (for each parameter a North Sea annual average) Spatial Analysis (for each parameter a time-series average for each cell) ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 4/18 Ecosystem Variability

10. Spatial Analysis ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 6/18 Ecosystem Variability

11. Spatial Analysis Estimated (modelled) seawater residence times (ICES, 1983). ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 7/18 Ecosystem Variability

12. Conclusions (Spatial Analysis) Clear environmental gradients Bathymetry and hydrodynamic processes (waves, tides, nutrients) most important Spatial gradients are relatively stable over time (multi-decadal) Abiotic spatial gradients correlate significantly with spatial trends in all biotic parameters analysed ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 8/18 Ecosystem Variability

13. Time-Series Analysis (1983 – 2007) ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 9/18 Ecosystem Variability

14. 19832007 106 ordered state/pressure variables PC1 – 35% North Sea Ecosystem D. Fish C. Finmarchicus Nutrients Salinity N. Fulmar P. Fish C. helgolandicus Temperature CPR Colour Index N. Gannet 10/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

15. Increases in Herring SSB, Ave P. Fish Length, Temp, C. Helgolandicus Increases in Ave. D Fish Length, C. Finmarchicus. North Sea Ecosystem 1983 – 1990 1991 – 2001 2003 – 2009 ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 11/18 Ecosystem Variability What is driving this pattern of change? Rodionov Regime Shift Detector

16. Environment Ecosystem Component Interactions Fishing Pressure ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 12/18 Ecosystem Variability

17. North Sea Ecosystem Components Fishing EffortFish Stocks ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 13/18 Ecosystem Variability

18. 19832007 North Sea Ecosystem 1983 - 2007 1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 18/20 ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 14/18 Ecosystem Variability Fishery/Stock Env./Plankton SSB Herring

19. Trends within Trends Long-term trends Herring SSB, AMO & Herring Landings What about other ecosystem variables? ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 15/18 Ecosystem Variability Toresen and Østvedt, 2000

20. Ecosystem Trends ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 16/18 Ecosystem Variability Closer look at trends in –ve anomalies from 1983

21. Ecosystem Trends ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 17/18 Ecosystem Variability P. Fish C. helgolandicus CPR Colour Index N. Gannet The good days… could be at an end!!

22. Conclusions (Time-Series Analysis) Trends within Trends (longer-term, multi-decadal trajectories, shorter-term multi-annual oscillations) Trajectories possibly linked to the AMO? Oscillations linked to a dynamic equilibrium between top-down vs. bottom-up forcing The direction, rate and amplitude of oscillations appear greatest during phase changes in the AMO. Combination of fishing and climate pressures. ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 18/18 Ecosystem Variability

23. What is the policy relevance? ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 1/3 Policy Relevance

24. Policy Relevance Management strategies which adapt to long- term natural changes in ecosystem state (or trajectories) are essential - more of some things, but less of others Assessment of GES descriptors at appropriate scales in time and space - different scales of assessment = different outcomes Avoid rapid changes in ecosystem state (regime shifts) - by assessing the relative direction and rate of bottom-up vs top-down forcing and the interactions between ecosystem components ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 2/3 Policy Relevance

25. Objective Science Modelling Component Interactions (help to identify which are the most significant) Expert Judgement Impact matrix for integrated monitoring and assessment Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Regional assessments for MSFD (GES) OSPAR Quality Status Reports Effective (& objective) transfer of scientific knowledge into policy 3/3 Policy Relevance

26. Thank You! The start of a new day for marine management!