1. DATA ASSIMILATION activities @SHMU M. Derkova, M. Bellus, M. Nestiak

2. ALADIN/SHMU: model characteristics ALADIN@SHMU horizontal resolution9.0km spectral truncation106 x 95 blending spectral truncation 53 x 48 number of grid points320 x 288 vertical levels37 operational time step400s coupling frequency3h (ARPEGE LBC) forecast length72h (60h at 18UTC) model version 36_t1.10 (ALARO+3MT) data assimilation frequency 6h HPC IBM:10 p755 computing nodes (~320CPUs) + 2 p750 management nodes

3. ALADIN/SHMU DA: methods (1) upper air spectral blending by DFI (surface fields copied from ARPEGE analysis) operational since 19/09/2007 surface data assimilation using CANARI (NEW !) standard setting, no special tuning operational since 03/04/2012 (difficult mental step)

4. ALADIN/SHMU DA: methods (2) Data assimilation scheme: 6h frequency based on long cut-off observations and ARPEGE long cut-off LBC Production 4x/day based on short cut-off observations and short cut-off ARPEGE LBC

5. get_oplace_long canari_assim blend_assim run_assim startend 18 UTC02:2002:30 00 UTC08:5509:10 06 UTC13:4514:00 12 UTC20:5521:10 run_prod startend 00 UTC02:5504:00 06 UTC09:4510:50 12 UTC14:3515:35 18 UTC21:4522:40 get_oplace_short canari_prod blend_prod ALADIN/SHMU DA: methods (3)

6. ALADIN/SHMU DA: methods (4) DA step GUESSANALYSIS SURF ANALYSIS BLEND BLENDING GUESS (no initialization) 6h FORECAST ANALYSIS SST CANARIcopy of SST NEW BLENDING

7. ALADIN/SHMU DA: data (1) data assimilated: SYNOP 2m temperature and 2m relative humidity data sources: OPLACE + local database SST copied from ARPEGE analysis data processing: upgraded obsoul_merge script solves problem of corrupted OPLACE files

8. OK PB!

9. New obsoul_merge script offers full control of observations: it reads the records and their headers one-by-one and checks many things. Duplicated records, records with wrong date or wrong observation type are excluded, lat/lon discrepancy of duplicated records is checked and so on. courtesy of M. Bellus, available upon request ALADIN/SHMU DA: data (3)

10. MERGING OBSOULS : => READING FILE (0): /data/nwp/products/oplace_long/2012-03-03/obsoul_1_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 NT(orig): 06 NT(conv): 060000 => READING FILE (1): /data/nwp/products/oplace_long/2012-03-03/obsoul_5_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 NT(orig): 06 NT(conv): 060000 => READING FILE (2): /data/nwp/products/obsoul/2012-03-03/obsoul_1_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 NT(orig): 6 NT(conv): 060000 DATA PROCESSING : record number: 1 total data: 42 station ID: 13704 record number: 2 total data: 37 station ID: HU12805 record number: 3 total data: 42 station ID: 12812... ALADIN/SHMU DA: data (4) listing with detailed debug info... record number: 3090 total data: 732 station ID: 01415 (!) 01415 => has wrong observation date/time... record number: 3205 total data: 37 station ID: 17601 (!) 17601 => duplicated observation... record number: 4583 total data: 32 station ID: 02095 (!) 02095 => has wrong lat/lon (saved:0.67/0.23 record:0.56/0.16) (file:20120303-060000 record:-533133308--5330800)

11. MERGING OBSOULS: => READING FILE (0): /data/nwp/products/oplace_long/2012-03- 03/obsoul_1_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 => READING FILE (1): /data/nwp/products/oplace_long/2012-03- 03/obsoul_5_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 => READING FILE (2): /data/nwp/products/obsoul/2012-03- 03/obsoul_1_xxxxxx_xx_2012030306 => TOTAL RECORDS WRITTEN: 5349 (!) Number of skipped records due to inconsistent date/time: 104 (!) Number of skipped records due to inconsistent lat/lon: 82 (!) Number of skipped records due to duplicity: 2389 => FINISHED IN: 1 secs ALADIN/SHMU DA: data (5) listing final info

12. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (1) 6months of e-suite (01/08/2011-30/01/2012) reference = operational forecast (DFIblending) – veral – point verification – special diagnostics CANARI OPER 2mT analysis, 00UTC

13. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (2) BIAS (left) and STDEV (right) of 2m temperature of the guess (blue) and of the CANARI analysis (red) computed over whole domain for few randomly selected days.

14. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (3) “basic school” example 2mT analysis scores: top: over SK (OK), bottom: over whole domain (pb!) OPER CANARI

15. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (4) What happens if SST is not correctly treated? Diff between CANARI analysis and ARPEGE(?) analysis with SST cycled (left) and copied (right)

16. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (5) 2mT analysis scores over whole domain after correction OPER CANARI cycled SST CANARI copied SST

17. Generally there was positive impact found on the analysis and subsequent forecasts; on the surface and also in lower levels; namely for temperature and humidity. The impact is more pronounced in summer period. Worsening of the daytime scores (in the summer): a problem in the forecasts for 12 and 18h day time, for any starting analysis time and any forecast length. A cold temperature BIAS (winter). ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (6)

18. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (7) 2mT analysis 00UTC CANARI OPER 2mT analysis 12UTC OPER CANARI OPER CANARI OPER CANARI

19. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (8) 2mT +72h forecast 1000hPa T +12h forecast OPER CANARI OPER CANARI

20. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (9) 2mT +24h forecast from 12UTC 2mT +36h forecast from 00UTC OPER CANARI

21. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (10) 2mRH RMSE +24h forecast from 12UTC OPERCANARI 2mRH RMSE +36h forecast from 00UTC

22. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (11) OPERCANARI

23. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (12) 2mT RMSE diurnal cycle (summer?) pb 00UTC 12UTC CANARI OPER

24. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (13) difference of surface soil wetness in analyses between operational and parallel run

25. ALADIN/SHMU DA: validation (14) cold 2mT BIAS (winter?) pb negative temperature BIAS in general for whole integration period near surface the temperature BIAS is negative mainly in winter season, but the fact, that it is generally worse for forecasts based on CANARI analyses comes from the warmer part of the testing period 01/08/2011-30/01/201201/08/2011-31/10/20111/11/2011-30/01/2012 OPERCANARI

26. RADAR assim in AROME/HU (1) Technical development for 3D-VAR assimilation of radial Doppler winds (using 3 HU radars). Preliminary results - analysis increments of U wind component for 3 model levels are shown.

27. RADAR assim in AROME/HU (2) EXP0426 → 1117 c32160c13ae8730c2746b97b30b350ab BUD_20110426_0000.bufr

28. RADAR assim in AROME/HU (3) EXP0426 → 1123_BU1117 C32160c13ae8730c2746b97b30b350ab BUD_20110426_0000.bufr (12843) 0a50b249103e46d11ae77022081e7bd2 NAP_20110426_0000.bufr (12892) 7044d9c633ced3c72943c8ccb43a6d98 POG_20110426_0000.bufr (12921)

29. ALADIN/SHMU DA: plans Solve 2m T forecast problems Increase the horizontal/vertical resolution Test coupling with ECMWF (MF new schedule) 3DVAR/ALADIN installation – check basic impact (optionally) 3VAR/AROME installation – to continue with radar DA