1. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Bio, Nano, Info The Keys to California's Future The Economic Development Program Advisory Committee Ken Dozier NASA Far West RTTC 5/19/2005

2. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA One Hundred Years Ago Life expectancy was Forty-Seven Years 8000 Cars 144 Miles of Paved Road 95% of the Births Occurred at Home Pneumonia and Influenza Leading Killers 6% of American’s graduated from High School Lee De Forest “father of the radio” was persecuted for mail fraud for his claim that he could transmit the human voice across the Atlantic

3. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Industry Clusters (Jobs?) –“Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth. Industry Cluster Electronic Key Export Oriented Firms Key Supplier Oriented Firms Key Economic Infrastructure Providers Consumer Electronic Assembly Computer Hardware Assembly Tool, Die & Machinery Office & Production Supply Specialized Component Supply Education & Training Institutions Physical Infrastructure Providers Financial and Regulatory Institutions (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995) B01-039

4. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight” Jack Welch, Former Chairman General Electric The Future

5. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA ½ Fortune 500 Companies Gone (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

6. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Info-Tech Nano-Tech Bio-Tech Technologies Change Fast Copyright SRI International 2002

7. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA People Don’t TruthKnowledgeBelief Universal No Debate Effect Social Converge on debate Cause Personal Diverge on debate Cause 10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)

8. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Myths “Heavier Than Air Flying Machines are Impossible”, Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1903 “There is a World Market for maybe five Computers”, Thomas Watson, Chairman IBM, 1945 “There is not the Slightest Indication {Nuclear} Energy will ever be Obtainable,” Albert Einstein

9. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA What’s Wrong For every 100 Dollars We Spend on the Retired Workforce We Spend 10 Dollars on the Emerging Workforce We Spend 1 Dollar on the Existing Workforce

10. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Jobs Technology Based Technology Maturity High Low HighLow Nanotech Biotech Infotech (HPC) electronics software Small talent pool

11. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA 1 st Perspective Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset –The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98) –Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98) –Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight. Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98) –Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)

12. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA 2nd Perspective Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator –Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94) –Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97) –In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97) –Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)

13. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA 3rd Perspective Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98) Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01) The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01) Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98) The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)

14. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Typical Waterfall model Six Stages basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion Criticisms Too much focus on the solution “push” basic research not the only initiator stage relationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linear Users are the key “pull” to the problems and markets Traditional Entrepreneurship Sung

15. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA 2001 study of startup companies across: Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%) Most innovation at application stage (55%), development ( 22%), research (12%) production (9%) Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35) Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B) Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education) Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location New Non-Linear Model

16. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Moore’s Law One Decade Left Copyright SRI International 2002

17. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA California Council on Science and Technology 2004

18. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Nanotechnology Timeline California Council on Science and Technology 2004

19. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Two Basic Methods Nanofabrication –Nanoscale Engineering –Precise Sculpting or Building of Enhanced and New Materials –Man Made Tools of processes, products or structures Self Assembly –Atoms and Molecules Growing Structures –Nanotubes

20. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA New Materials * Before Nano we took the materials the earth provided (wood, stone, ore) and found creative applications Now we can manage the composition and combination of atoms, to form new stronger lighter metals, more flexible ceramics, more conductive plastics *The Next Big Thing is Really Small, Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry (2003)

21. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Expect to See Materials as strong as diamonds and lighter than aluminum Composites that act as heat conductors, shields from radiation, provides wireless communication and converts heat into electricity Nanosensors and energy sources to make materials self repairing (cars, bridges, buildings, clothes) Solar collecting materials that can be “painted on” to collect, store and apply energy (room light cell phones, buildings, wearable computer)

22. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Elements of Strategy EnergyElectronicsMedicine Early stage Development Infrastructure Federal Funding

23. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Price per Megabyte 1988$ 11.00 per Megabyte Today$ 0.01 per Megabyte IBM Millipede (2 years) $ 0.00001 per Megabyte Nantero/Zettacore (4 years) $ 0.00000001 per Megabyte Hewlett Packard (6 years) $ 0.00000000001 per Megabyte Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”

24. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA High Performance Computing (HPC) Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

25. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA HPC and Next Generation Biology Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.

26. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Simulating the activity of a single protein, taking into account each atom in the protein, Would take months using a PetaFLOPS- class computer HPC and Next Generation Biology

27. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA 0 2 9 28 Computing Synergy Possibility for creating N(2 (N-1) -1) value Copyright SRI International 2002

28. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Media Bandwidth DSL/ Cable IEEE 1394 / Firewire Gigabit Ethernet LASER / Fast Ethernet 10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave G2 Wireless G3 / Wireless LAN Async. Trans. Mode (ATM) G1 Wireless 10Gig Ethernet Voice Internet Access Gaming File sharing Digital Music NTSC Video VHS Video MPEG Video DV Video HDTV Video 10^11 10^10 10^9 10^8 10^7 10^6 10^5 10^4 Bandwidth Required Bits/sec (bps)

29. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Copyright SRI International 2002 Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age

30. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Nanotechnology Role in the Future Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

31. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA Future Needs Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

32. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA High Impact Application Advanced Materials – High strength-to-weight composites for vehicle primary structures and habitats – Hydrogen resistant nanostructured materials for cryotanks – High thermal conductivity materials for heat sinks, heat pipes, and radiators – High temperature materials for propulsion systems and thermal protection systems – High electrical conductivity materials for wiring – Self-healing materials for repairing impact damage and wire insulation – Space-durable materials resistant to ultraviolet and particle radiation – Self-assembling materials for in-space fabrication Power – High energy density batteries and fuel cells – High efficiency photovoltaic cells Sensing – Bio-chemical sensors for monitoring environmental contaminants in crew habitats – Bio-chemical sensors for detecting the signatures of life on other planets – Chemical systems for identifying, processing, and utilizing planetary resources Integral Health Management – Systems that incorporate integral sensors and processors for fault detection and diagnosis High Performance Computing – Fault-tolerant reconfigurable processors, micro-controllers, and storage devices Extreme Environment Electronics – Microelectronic devices that can operate reliably in extreme temperature and radiation environments Source: Neville I. Marzwell, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

33. Technology Transfer Center http://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA High Performance Grid Computing