1. 1 New Hampshire Trends, Higher Education and the State Budget Steve Norton Executive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Nashua Rotary, 11-10-08

2. 2 Voting Patterns Change

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6. 6 When Will it End? (Economy.com)

7. 7 Macro Trends Aging –People are getting older, fewer children Economic Change –Agriculture -> Manufacturing -> ? The World is Flat –Information, Communication, Transportation Environmental Change –Climate, Water, Conservation Migration Role of Towns in Shaping New Hampshire

8. 8 Age Distribution: 1970

9. 9 Age Distribution: 1995

10. 10 Age Distribution: 2020?

11. 11 Health Care (not high income jobs) Accounts for Much of Projected Job Growth Source: NH Department of Labor Projections

12. 12 What is NH? The Tech Corridor? The Lakes Region The North Country The Seacoast The Capital Region The Monadnock Region Mt Washington Valley

13. 13 Geographic Variation: What Do Regions Have in Common? Source: NH Office of State Planning Estimates

14. 14 Proportion of Population Over the Age of 65 Dramatically Changing

15. 15 Where did the money go?

16. 16 What about purchasing power … has it increased?

17. 17 Feast and Famine: 1997-2007 Change in General Fund Appropriations (in $2007 per capita) 11

18. 18 Changes in General Fund Contributions (Education Related)

19. 19 What about 2010-2011? $500 Million Biennium Shortfall

20. 20 A Convergence of trends …. Over the past decade  a decline, in real terms, in state’s participation in higher education in the state. Economic recession  Increases competition for state general funds. Aging  Declining number of children graduating from high school  Increased competition for college students. State budget conversations will impact ongoing state support (retirement, education adequacy). Independence of community colleges system will likely require initial support.

21. 21 May lead to tough decisions … Engage with business community etc… in a broader conversation about need to invest in higher education? Recruit and enroll students who would not have previously gone to college? Increase tuition rates faster than in recent years? Reduce faculty and programs?

22. 22 www.nhpolicy.org All of our reports are available on the web: www.nhpolicy.org New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Donna Sytek, Chair John B. Andrews John D. Crosier Shelia T. Francoeur Chuck Morse Todd Selig Stuart Smith James Tibbetts Brian Walsh Kimon S. Zachos Martin Gross Staff Steve Norton Dennis Delay Ryan Tappin “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”