1. Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WS Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004 S. Nilsson, a E.A. Vaganov, b V.A. Rozhkov, b A. Shvidenko, a V. Stolbovoi, a I. McCallum, a M. Jonas, a and M. Obersteiner a ( a IIASA; b Russia) 1

2. IIASA Forestry Program Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992) 5

3. IIASA Forestry Program Some layers of the Integrated Land Information System

4. IIASA Forestry Program Terrestrial Full C org Balance for Russia (1988–1992) V NPP: 4354 (  118) Con: 682 (  41) RO: 62 (  14) HR + Ant: 4026 (  131) SRO: 9 (  3) 306 (  156) H 62 (  14) L 20 (  7) A -351 -(  176) Dis: 143 (  16) P -38 -(  155) Det: 3222 (  93) HR: 3201 (  123) Leak: 20 (  7) URO: 50 (  13) Dep: 23 (  7) Dep_H: 3 (  1) Dep_P: 20 (  7) CSRO: 12 (  4) DOS: 70 (  15) Plab: -69 -(±155) Pstab: 31 (±9) 6

5. IIASA Forestry Program CARBON FLUXES tC/ha Vegetational Fluxes (1990) Soil Fluxes (1990) 23

6. IIASA Forestry Program Total N 2 O 1990 15 Total Emissions 0.64 Tg N 2 O

7. IIASA Forestry Program CH 4 1990 Big variation in the fossil emission in 1990: 5–16 Tg CH 4 16 Total Emissions 48 Tg CH 4

8. IIASA Forestry Program CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O Combined GHG GWP Effect Global Warming Potentials in CO 2 Equivalents over 100 Year Time Horizon of Terrestrial Emissions and Fossil Fuels of Russia in 1990 Global Warming Potentials in Tg (CO 2 equivalents) 1990Sector CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2ON2ON2OTOTALIndustry2138443122593 Agriculture-4119962-250 Natural Ecosystems -877460123-294 TOTAL85010021972049 17 Nature neutralizing ~20% of industrial emissions

9. Terrestrial Sink Strength [PgC yr -1 ] Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988–1992 Average Annual Atmospheric Sink Strength -0.35 ± 0.10 (This Study, 2003) -0.15 ± 0.12 (Nilsson et al., 2000) 7

10. IIASA Forestry Program Conclusions for 1990 Estimates  Modified systems view with respect to soils and inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink capacity. Combination of process based methods with inventories  The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface and sub-surface fluxes  The uncertainties are substantially reduced  Underlining the need for thorough and full accounting including all fluxes 8

11. IIASA Forestry Program Top down ….. Bottom Up (cit. Daniel Muridiyarso)

12. IIASA Forestry Program Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for Russia Region Vegetated Area 10 12. m 2 Russia16 Eurasia36 Northern Extra-tropics 56 Inverse Modeling Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.45 - 0.79 Up Scaled Bottom-up Values Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.22 - 0.77 Valid for the Northern Extra-tropical Region PgCyr -1 9

13. IIASA Forestry Program Conclusions  Our full C account of Russia is closer to atmospheric inversion than existing C inventory + model techniques  Combined top down–bottom up based approach has smaller uncertainties than pure top down approach  The combination of bottom up (FCA) with top down (atmospheric inversion) is the way to achieve ultimate verification  No “Missing Sink ” 10

14. IIASA Forestry Program Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions in Russia 1988–2002 Fossil Total Terrestrial TgC -351 -689 -518 25

15. IIASA Forestry Program Vegetation fire in Russia in 1971-2002

16. IIASA Forestry Program INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA) INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)

17. IIASA Forestry Program Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)

18. IIASA Forestry Program Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr -1 )  Logging and forest products83.1 [56 to 99]  Veg Fire (direct emissions)69.7 [12 to 229]  Veg Fire (post D emissions)68.9 [62 to 81]  Veg Fire – total138.6 [81to 303]  Biotic75.7 [62 to 89]  Abiotic27.5 [16-36]  Overall total325 [262 to 479]

19. IIASA Forestry Program Facit  Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading system adds substantial uncertainty and risk –Lemmons market –Compliance in a stochastic environment

20. IIASA Forestry Program Classification of D in boreal forests Climatic Geomorpho- genic BiogenicPyrogenicAnthropogenic Weather Climate Change Denuadation Cryogenic Volcanogenic Genus Type Zoogenic Pathogenic Landscape Fire Site Degradation Pollution Industrial Land Transformation Forest Management

21. IIASA Forestry Program MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE ATMOSPHERE Total carbon flux caused by disturbance r during year t1 TCF r,t1 = DF r,t1 + PDF r,t<t1, where DF r,t1 is direct emission during year t1, and PDF r,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic flux PDF r,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic flux