1. NASA LWS TR&T Focus Topic: “Predict Emergence of Solar Active Regions Before they are Visible”

2. The Team = everyone funded under this focus topic MSU: PI Stein, Nordlund, Georgobiani, Schaffenberger, Benson Stanford: Science PI Kosovichev, Scherrer, Zhao CoRA Near-side team: PI Birch, Braun, Leka, Barnes, Crouch, Werne, & Lindsey CoRA Far-side team: PI Lindsey NSO: PI Hill, Gonzalez-Hernandez, Komm, Burtseva Sorry if I left anyone off the list … let me know for future talks …

3. Goals and measures of success: The goal of this Focused Science Topic is to develop, test, and refine techniques for the detection of active regions before they are visible, the exploration of techniques to determine whether preemergent or newly emerged active regions will grow and become flare-productive, and to explore how such knowledge could be incorporated into downstream predictive models of the outer corona and heliosphere. The prime measure of success for this work will be to demonstrate a statistically significant ability to predict the location of new active regions before they are visible on the surface of the Sun and also their evolution.

4. 8:30-9:00 Breakfast 9:00-9:10 Intro - Aaron 9:10-10:30 NSO Group: Frank, Irene, Rudi, Olga 10:30-10:45 Coffee 10:45-11:20 CoRA near-side group: Aaron, KD, Graham 12:00-1:00 Lunch 1:00-1:30Bob 1:30-2:15 Stanford Group: Phil, Sasha (telecon), Junwei 2:15-2:45CoRA far-side group: Charlie 2:45-3:00 Coffee 3:00-3:10 Doug’s estimate of travel-time shift from a rising flux tube. 3:10- ? Discussion. 6:00Dinner (leave here at 5:45) Turn in badge if you are not coming back tomorrow Agenda

5. The purposes of this meeting: Learn what everyone is working on & plans to work on Plan what we will do as a team this year: look ahead to the first annual report (due fall this year)

6. Web Site: http://www.cora.nwra.com/LWSPredictEmergence