1. Storm-based Warnings Storm-based Warnings Changes to NWS Warnings for the Digital Age NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006 John Ferree Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006 John Ferree Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service

2. Overview of This Presentation Benefits of Storm-based Warnings Plans for Storm-based Warnings Challenges for Storm-based Warnings We need your help! Q & A Benefits of Storm-based Warnings Plans for Storm-based Warnings Challenges for Storm-based Warnings We need your help! Q & A

3. NWS Mission Congressional Organic Act of 1890 “To provide public weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and to provide weather information for the Nation’s economic well-being”

4. A Comparison of Tornado Events

5. County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms

6. In the current system, six full counties are warned. Storm-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service. Storm-Based Warnings Provide Improved Service Strong circulation within line of severe thunderstorms Tornado warning area based on storm without regard to county boundaries

7. Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated. “Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million dollars a year in reduction of the cost of sheltering” - Dr. Dan Sutter Professor of Economics

8. An Extreme Example of Falsely Alarmed Area

9. Graphic Dissemination of Storm-Based Warnings Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).

10. Here’s the Plan Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007 Official announcement likely January 18, 2007 Currently gathering feedback from partners and customers Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists) Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists) Private Sector Meteorologist December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at TAMU Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007 Official announcement likely January 18, 2007 Currently gathering feedback from partners and customers Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists) Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists) Private Sector Meteorologist December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at TAMU

11. Other SB Warning Activities Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification Training warning forecasters Upgrading AWIPS software Updating NWS Directives Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification Training warning forecasters Upgrading AWIPS software Updating NWS Directives

12. Challenges for SB Warnings CWA Boundaries

13. Challenges for SB Warnings Text /Audio Dissemination Already use directional delimiters “A Tornado Warning is in effect for Southwestern Montgomery County” Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers Maximum number? Metro areas - problematic NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters Already use directional delimiters “A Tornado Warning is in effect for Southwestern Montgomery County” Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers Maximum number? Metro areas - problematic NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters

14. Tornado Warning Bulletin

15. Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish Not an issue for graphical depictions Text issue for radio, TV crawls How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements? Include counties with directional delimiters? Summary SVSs? Not an issue for graphical depictions Text issue for radio, TV crawls How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements? Include counties with directional delimiters? Summary SVSs?

16. Questions? Contact Information: John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov Phone 405-325-2209 Contact Information: John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov Phone 405-325-2209 Thank you for your attention!