1. Voting For Congress

2. Learning Objectives Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.

3. FINISHING UP ON DOWNS

4. The System Matters Single Member Districts =1 Party Two Round Systems= multiple parties with ideological coalitions PR and Multi-Member Districts- multiple parties

5. NEW PARTIES

6. Getting New Parties Existing parties cant jump over each other New Parties come from – Between the gap – On the fringe

7. What New parties Want to Do Win electionsThreaten Existing Parties

8. How can Third Parties Win? A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!

9. Splitting the Vote

10. Ambiguity You can try to accomplish everything It increases your appeal It makes it harder for the voter to be rational! Why?

11. VOTING FOR CONGRESS How Do We Vote For Congress

12. Goals of Congressperson The Primary Goal is to Get Elected The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)

13. Voting For Congress We have seen this before

14. PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT

16. Lower turnout in Congressional Elections Lower Excitement Lower Salience Lower Information

17. Partisanship is Most Important The biggest factor in Congressional election Even in open seat elections

18. Safe Seats Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering Majority Minority Districts

19. Residential Self Selection

20. INCUMBENCY Major Factor 2

21. Incumbency Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places A resource that provides many benefits

22. Incumbent Benefit - Money Attract Money at Higher Rates The War Chest

23. Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition We Vote For Who We Know What Incumbents Can Do

25. Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers Run against Losers Scare off Good Challengers

26. Lose<Not Run<Win

27. Incumbency The incumbent dominates the discourse The incumbent has the advantages It is the Incumbent’s to lose

28. Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?

29. HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE

30. Stop Playing the Game Get too Old Become inattentive Scandal

31. Strategic Challengers can Alter This They run when national trends favor their party They have local advantages as well They also have the most to lose!

32. How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns Attract Money Can turn National Issues into Local Ones Are Quality Challengers as Well

33. What is a Quality Challenger A person who has formerly/currently held elective office Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency

34. INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE

35. House Incumbency in 2008

36. Senate Incumbency

37. House vs Senate Incumbents Why are Senators more vulnerable?