1. A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of Transportation Policy in Maine Michael Donihue Associate Professor of Economics at Colby College Long Range Planning Workshop Maine Department of Transportation August 15, 2005

2. Overview Economic Trends Demographic Trends Engines of Economic Growth Policy Prescriptions

4. Demographic Trends 1990 – 2000 Annualized rate of population growth in Maine was 0.38% Compared with a national rate of 1.24% per year Growth in New England averaged 0.53% annually By 2004 the population in Maine was 1.3 million persons (9.25% of New England)

5. Birth Rates in Maine Year Birth Rate (live births per thousand) 199014.1 199511.2 200010.7 200410.5

6. In-Migration to Maine 1995 – 2000 Previous Location Number of Persons Percent of Total In-Migration Moved “From Away”118,512 Moved from a different US State 107,99991.1 Northeast State57,43148.5 Midwest State9,6548.2 State in the South26,02022.0 State in the West14,89412.6 Foreign Country10,1178.5

7. Net Migration For Maine and New England Total Net Migration InternationalDomestic Maine-3,5423,895-7,437 New England-252,828253,411-506,239 1990 - 1999

8. Total Net Migration InternationalDomestic Maine38,5384,18234,356 New England121,440234,683-113,243 Net Migration For Maine and New England 2000 - 2004

9. 2004* TotalFemaleMale 3.03%2.68%3.36% 2010 *2004 data are US Census Bureau estimates. All other data are US Census Bureau projections consistent with the 2000 Census. Predicted Cumulative Population Growth 2004 - 2010 FemaleMale Post 1980 Gen X Boomers WWII PreWWII MaleFemale Population Pyramids for Maine Thousands of Persons

10. Population Estimates by Demographic Group 2004 % of Total% Female% Male Pre WWII7.164.462.70 WWII12.286.435.85 Boomers31.5416.0415.50 Gen X18.159.218.93 Gen Y30.8715.0315.83 2010 % of Total% Female% Male Pre WWII4.663.031.63 WWII10.985.905.08 Boomers30.4615.6314.82 Gen X18.999.699.29 Post 198034.9117.0817.83 Maine

11. TotalFemaleMale 3.80%3.45%4.12% 2020 2030 TotalFemaleMale 0.17%-0.55%0.86% Population Growth: 2010 to 2020Population Growth 2020 to 2030 Post 1980 Gen X Boomers WWII Gen X Boomers WWII Male Female Population Pyramids for Maine Thousands of Persons

12. 2020 % of Total% Female% Male WWII8.695.253.44 Boomers27.5714.4413.13 Gen X19.039.759.28 Post 198044.7122.0722.64 2030 % of Total% Female% Male WWII3.702.401.30 Boomers22.8012.5910.21 Gen X18.889.769.12 Post 198054.6227.1027.52 Maine Population Estimates by Demographic Group

13. Census Bureau Population Estimates for Maine YearTotalMalesFemales % change from 2004 Period-to-Period Annualized Rate of Growth 20041,317,253674,110643,143 20101,357,134696,749660,3853.030.50 20201,408,665725,469683,1966.940.37 20301,411,097731,678679,4197.120.02

14. Population Pyramids for New England Thousands of Persons 2010 2004 TotalFemaleMale 3.513.073.93 Population Growth 2004 to 2010 Male Post 1980 Gen Y Gen X Boomers WWII PreWWII Female

15. 2010 % of Total% Female% Male Pre WWII4.482.961.52 WWII9.545.274.27 Boomers27.9814.4213.56 Gen X19.7410.119.63 Post 198038.2618.8719.39 2004 % of Total% Female% Male Pre WWII7.124.492.63 WWII10.785.775.01 Boomers29.6515.1714.49 Gen X20.1510.199.96 Post 198032.3015.8016.50 New England Population Estimates by Demographic Group

16. TotalFemaleMale 3.873.584.15 2020 2030 TotalFemaleMale 2.051.492.57 Population Growth: 2010 to 2020Population Growth 2020 to 2030 Female Male Post 1980 Gen X Boomers WWII Post 1980 Population Pyramids for New England Thousands of Persons

17. 2020 % of Total% Female% Male WWII7.644.742.90 Boomers23.6612.5311.12 Gen X18.849.709.14 Post 198049.8624.7925.07 2030 % of Total% Female% Male WWII3.222.151.07 Boomers18.5710.418.16 Gen X17.098.908.18 Post 198061.1230.5630.55 New England Population Estimates by Demographic Group

18. Census Bureau Population Estimates for New England YearTotalMalesFemales % change from 2004 Period-to-Period Annualized Rate of Growth 200414,238,8887,321,2576,917,631 201014,738,7897,608,9317,129,8583.510.58 202015,309,5287,924,5767,384,9527.520.38 203015,623,0158,128,2477,494,7689.720.20

19. Why are demographics important? Transportation infrastructure needs of an aging population are different Has implications for the type of housing structures needed in the future Important implications for demand for goods Perhaps most important are trends in demands for services An important determinant of economic growth

20. Engines of Economic Growth Output is produced using people, machines, and energy/raw materials. How much is produced depends on the available technology Four sources of Growth: 1. Population Growth (labor force) 2. Growth in the Capital Stock 3. Growth in Technology 4. Growth in energy and raw materials

21. Role for Transportation Policy Labor supply and demand. To the extent that there exist transportation barriers in Maine then policy can play a role in increasing employment opportunities by removing the barriers. Capital stock. Transportation infrastructure is important. Moving goods and services both within the state and creating access to export markets. Technological improvements in the design, construction, and maintenance of our transportation infrastructure will improve Maine’s growth potential.

22. Role for Maine DOT Proactive: Correct policies will contribute to Maine’s economic growth potential. Reactive policies: By simply responding to existing needs we’re simply playing catch-up thus hampering the potential for future growth. Constraints include limits of time and money.

23. Policy Prescription: “Intelligent Design” DOT can play the role of creator of evolutionary transportation systems Key is incentives Improved public transit systems in Portland will encourage evolutionary housing opportunities and reduce sprawl Seek public/private partnerships. Island Explorer in Acadia; Bio-diesel fuel; E-Zpass Alternative pricing schemes on the Maine Turnpike